Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

25 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Too tucked. U got the CMC?

Thats almost a optimal track,shift it south and east by 25 miles and its snow for everyone!!

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The nam and gfs are def a tick cooler for coastal areas,if your in the northern parts of the city,westchester co and northern nj..your looking better per run.

I think those are the most borderline areas in terms of could get anywhere from nothing to 6 inches. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think those are the most borderline areas in terms of could get anywhere from nothing to 6 inches. 

Im leaning to something as usual. I think NYC breaks it's snowless streak also,reguardless of cpk's undermeasurements

[snywx]

0z Ukmet 

 

[David-LI]

5 minutes ago, snywx said:

0z Ukmet 

 

uncle Ukie never fails. That's exactly what I'm expecting. Zero accumulation NYC east.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Euro ????

[SI Mailman]

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Euro ????

[Stormlover74]

Warmer and drier

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Thanks and YUCK

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Warmer

We've known the coast has a good chance of seeing very little, but this Euro run is so bad that it has almost nothing for our area. Hopefully things will look a little better tomorrow, but it's hard to be optimistic right now with Euro and RGEM so warm. NAM is probably off its rocker like we've seen so many times. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

We've known the coast has a good chance of seeing very little, but this Euro run is so bad that it has almost nothing for our area. Hopefully things will look a little better tomorrow, but it's hard to be optimistic right now with Euro and RGEM so warm. NAM is probably off its rocker like we've seen so many times. 

The EPS mean was still good for 95...

[RU848789]

6Z NAM not good.   Do we call it NAM'd?

[Snowlover11]

lmao.  nam is so violent with run to run.  but it is starting to get ugly.

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

lmao.  nam is so violent with run to run.  but it is starting to get ugly.

At least the metros can keep their <1" snow days streak going. 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

lmao.  nam is so violent with run to run.  but it is starting to get ugly.

Rain to 287 and no Sunday action. 

[SnoSki14]

That storm next week is a beast. Models are actually trending stronger with it.

Euro gets down into the 960s with a very strong pressure gradient. I'm thinking 3"+ widespread totals, 60mph+ gusts and possibly major coastal flooding for some due to New Moon. 

Impacts will be worse due to all the rain we've had. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

The EPS mean was still good for 95...

 

Barely but this one is done for us

[wdrag]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Although @wdrag does give me hope there could be a surprise here. But definitely not banking on it. It could be easily the other direction-some slush to rain. 

It will almost definitely start as snow or r/s mix, but pavement probably won't accumulate... and over to all rain by 11PM but back to r/s mix Sunday morning.  Again... no one expected big snow I95 east but take what we can get. Am sure lots of reports will be coming in around 4-5PM Sat. 

[wdrag]

8 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I assume you've seen the latest WPC graphic on QPF from now through Wednesday.  3-6" for most of the EPA-NJ-SENY region would likely put many streams and river basins into major flood stage.  

Yes... this combo event - I can't rank it historically but no doubt the runoff next Wednesday should have rocket rises of small streams with slower rises of large rivers I95 corridor NJ/PA.  My concern if sump pump and power outages..then what. Detours and I think some evacuations in vulnerable flood zones may be necessary but we need to see how this plays closer to Tuesday. All I know, preparations as best as possible next few days which means cleaning storm drains today or Monday-Tues morning and just making it easier to mitigate what is coming in a 9 hour dump of 2-3" of rain, compounded in NJ by snowmelt. 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That storm next week is a beast. Models are actually trending stronger with it.

Euro gets down into the 960s with a very strong pressure gradient. I'm thinking 3"+ widespread totals, 60mph+ gusts and possibly major coastal flooding for some due to New Moon. 

Impacts will be worse due to all the rain we've had. 

That looks really ugly. Alot of rain and wind.

[wdrag]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

Thanks Walt. It’s very informative to read your analysis

reality-- lets see what happens.  I'm still with it as attempted to predict via these posts last eve. 

[wdrag]

NWS 4AM snowfall forecast and resultant impact expectations if and when many of these forecasts verify Saturday night-Sunday. 

As you know I';ve become a fan of the base amount forecast to limit expectations, worst case double 

[MJO812]

On 1/1/2024 at 1:39 AM, qg_omega said:

Risk is suppression here not rain

I wish we were both right but more rain on the way .

Models did have this suppressed because of the confluence but of course it has backed off significantly. 

So looking back , the gfs and gefs have trended more warm and north from showing a favorable storm even for the coast .

Frustrating hobby because we have been tracking this for a week .

[wxman]

I think the 6z GFS still looks good, maybe even improved from 0Z for many.   Still a bit of model mayhem, this could still go either way for me in west central NJ.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Another dream crusher for the coast. I’ll be on snow removal overtime regardless on the uws. I have experienced this type of setup many times the last few years were we snow a few  inch’s here at 120th street and get a grassy coating on the south shore of the island. So I’ll go with that based on precedent.

I think as far as actual impact that next storm could be the real deal for the coast. We had major beach erosion during the fall. And the last storm really dug deep. Lido beach is a 8 foot cliff currently, and another major hit could be serious. 

. 

[lee59]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

At least the metros can keep their <1" snow days streak going. 

This is kind of a ridiculous stat for NYC. I believe the streak at Kennedy, La Gaurdia and Newark is about half Central Park. They should use the 2 inch and under which is more realistic. Apparently about the only place in  the NY metro area that didn't get an inch of snow was Central Park.

[binbisso]

Interestig disco from nws. At least for my area in lower Westchester.

"Meanwhile, steady snow which may become heavy at times for portions
of the interior is expected through the evening and overnight. As
such, Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for interior portions of
the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and Southern Connecticut. There
remains a fair amount of uncertainty as to how far north the
rain/snow line moves. A stronger system may bring heavier mesoscale
banding and a more northerly component of the wind which may
allow for enhanced snow totals for the immediate CT coastline
and southern Westchester County, where a weaker system may allow
for warmer air to infiltrate further inland and provide for
more rain than snow. These details may not be known until the
storm is underway."

[allgame830]

The watch issued for LHV and north went to 5-10” from the 5-8” when first issued yesterday afternoon. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That storm next week is a beast. Models are actually trending stronger with it.

Euro gets down into the 960s with a very strong pressure gradient. I'm thinking 3"+ widespread totals, 60mph+ gusts and possibly major coastal flooding for some due to New Moon. 

Impacts will be worse due to all the rain we've had. 

Sounds like 98....lots of windy rainstorms. Soon as I heard El Nino I didn't expect much. Still don't. Cold out there this morning though. Can't hold onto it.

[ILoveWinter]

42 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This is kind of a ridiculous stat for NYC. I believe the streak at Kennedy, La Gaurdia and Newark is about half Central Park. They should use the 2 inch and under which is more realistic. Apparently about the only place in  the NY metro area that didn't get an inch of snow was Central Park.

And it's wrong, I live near the Park and I measured 1.5-1.75 (multiple locations) during one of the storms last year.