Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[MJO812]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:11 PM, the_other_guy said:

why are you losing interest? just curious?  you have anything is last year? January looks nice and warm. this may be it for the month

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The whole month is done ? Where are you getting that from ?

[RU848789]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:55 PM, North and West said:

Hmm, an IMBY question, but think it’ll be that low for MMU?


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No, or at least it's nuts to have MMU getting ~1", while5 miles east of there the NWS-NYC has areas of Essex County in a 3-4" swath.  

[the_other_guy]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:16 PM, MJO812 said:

The whole month is done ? Where are you getting that from ?

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Not at all. I just dont like how warm it looks. Transient cold.

 

I surprisingly like this storm chance 

[wishcast_hater]

What do we have to do to get Tuesdays storm to form a low off the coast to rob the energy from the low pressure off to our west?


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[Dark Star]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:21 PM, RU848789 said:

No, or at least it's nuts to have MMU getting ~1", while5 miles east of there the NWS-NYC has areas of Essex County in a 3-4" swath.  

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Elevation?

 

[Dark Star]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:54 PM, wishcast_hater said:

What do we have to do to get Tuesdays storm to form a low off the coast to rob the energy from the low pressure off to our west?


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Not sure if I ever remember that happening.  Models have occasionally shown it, but never really happens?

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:35 PM, the_other_guy said:

Not at all. I just dont like how warm it looks. Transient cold.

 

I surprisingly like this storm chance 

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I do too sorta surprisingly although I get the pessimism because of how every storm trended last year but the trends today have been good so hopefully there isn't another late dreadful trend.   

[mattinpa]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:35 PM, the_other_guy said:

Not at all. I just dont like how warm it looks. Transient cold.

 

I surprisingly like this storm chance 

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It’s looking better for the final couple weeks. Hopefully it stays that way. Not optimistic about this storm but things could still trend where the metros like NYC and Philly get more than an inch.

[dmcginvt]

Just dont expect the NAM

[sussexcountyobs]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:01 PM, BoulderWX said:

Quickly losing interest in this one but something to track at least. Expecting a sloppy 2-4” here in morris county 

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Where in Morris County?

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:01 AM, dmcginvt said:

Just dont expect the NAM

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I certainly don't take the nam seriously but the euro, gfs, and rgem are not that bad for most of the subforum away from the immediate coast. Only the CMC seems like a complete whiff SE of I287.

[dmcginvt]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:03 AM, HVSnowLover said:

I certainly don't but the euro, gfs, and rgem are not that bad for most of the subforum away from the immediate coast. Only the CMC seems like a complete whiff SE of I287.

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I'm pulling for you guys!  Grew up in Philly but have lived in VT for 37 years.  I'll get mine, but you guys NEEEED yours!  Hope you all get something.  Watching the 18z euro come in now

[dmcginvt]

998 off cape may thumping poconos for a minute then 996 off AC coast then bam jump to the benchmark at 40/70, and sitting there for 6 hours?

[kingbaus]

Euro looks north

[dmcginvt]

yup that's north, catskills, berks and most of mass get the goods, needless to say this is thread the needle with sharp cutoffs.  On to 0z

[BoulderWX]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:03 AM, sussexcountyobs said:

Where in Morris County?

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Morristown area. Last the green as if you’re heading to mendham and Chester if you’re familiar with the area 

[BoulderWX]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:14 AM, dmcginvt said:

yup that's north, catskills, berks and most of mass get the goods, needless to say this is thread the needle with sharp cutoffs.  

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Poconos too. Elevation reigns supreme per usual in borderline situations. 

[dmcginvt]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:22 AM, BoulderWX said:

Poconos too. Elevation reigns supreme per usual in borderline situations. 

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Yup didnt mean to leave them out!  Grew up skiing camelback, jack frost and big boulder  

[mikeysed]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:20 AM, BoulderWX said:

Morristown area. Last the green as if you’re heading to mendham and Chester if you’re familiar with the area 

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IMO Mt Holly is way low for morris County. Out of all the NWS areas based on models etc. They seem crazy for 1 to 5 for most of the county.

[sussexcountyobs]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:20 AM, BoulderWX said:

Morristown area. Last the green as if you’re heading to mendham and Chester if you’re familiar with the area 

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Ok. Yes I am somewhat familiar with area. I was thinking if you were closer by me, I'm in Sussex County, in northern Morris, like northern Jefferson, I think you will be fine.

[qg_omega]

I wish but much too cold for WP, maybe an inch or two before the rain.  Nothing for city or island

 

[BoulderWX]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:25 AM, sussexcountyobs said:

Ok. Yes I am somewhat familiar with area. I was thinking if you were closer by me, I'm in Sussex County, in northern Morris, like northern Jefferson, I think you will be fine.

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Crap shoot for both of us. Obviously further north and west in the county you go can make a huge difference if you look at those sharp cutoffs. Any elevation will be key as well. Used to being in the battleground of r/s line most of my life. Some have been great booms but equally as many busts. Good luck neighbor. 

[BoulderWX]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:27 AM, wilsonvoid1 said:

honestly the euro 18z looks good 8-10 inches of slop for NYC!
Borrowed this from New England thread @rgwp96 thank you.

A lot could change if it cranks sunday! we could get an easy 6 inches just from Sunday afternoon if dynamic cooling takes shape!


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Again keep in mind ratios. Even with this nice depiction, cut in half 

[dmcginvt]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:27 AM, wilsonvoid1 said:

honestly the euro 18z looks good 8-10 inches of slop for NYC!
Borrowed this from New England thread @rgwp96 thank you.

A lot could change if it cranks sunday! we could get an easy 6 inches just from Sunday afternoon if dynamic cooling takes shape!


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No, it doesnt

[Metasequoia]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:27 AM, wilsonvoid1 said:

honestly the euro 18z looks good 8-10 inches of slop for NYC!
Borrowed this from New England thread @rgwp96 thank you.

A lot could change if it cranks sunday! we could get an easy 6 inches just from Sunday afternoon if dynamic cooling takes shape!


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Thanks. Unrealistic 10 to 1 ratios, but still nice to have something to track.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

4-6 LI

 

with 6-8 on north shore of nassau

 

ill take it

 

even if ratios need to cut in half

[dmcginvt]

 

[dmcginvt]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:33 AM, WestBabylonWeather said:

4-6 LI

 

with 6-8 on north shore of nassau

 

ill take it

 

even if ratios need to cut in half

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LI is a little better than goose egg at best on Euro

[dmcginvt]

Essentially everything Don has been posting is the best case scenario right now.  Bronx N most. Below that we shall see, maybe something.  

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

40 knot sustained 10 m winds on Long Island mid-week on 18Z GFS, that probably adds some salt water to the fresh water flooding