Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[BoulderWX]

Nothing like 12z but SNE makes out well. Just another solution. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:53 PM, BoulderWX said:

Nothing like 12z but SNE makes out well. Just another solution. 

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Same solution but less amounts. Onto 0z.

[mannynyc]

18z GFS weaker and east

[bluewave]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:34 PM, Nibor said:

Central Park will find a way to measure .9 

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They should have had 1” on 2-27-23 but probably took the measurement too late after some melting had occurred. 

 

Data for February 27, 2023 through February 27, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NJ	CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W	CoCoRaHS	2.8
NY	RIDGE 1.8 SE	CoCoRaHS	2.4
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	2.0
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	1.8
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	1.2
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	1.1
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	1.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	0.9

 

 

[BoulderWX]

Still going in Mass and NE of there 

[North and West]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:42 PM, RU848789 said:

Lots of NWS office inconsistency issues.  The NWS has issued winter storm watches for a general 4-8" of snow for the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic and NW Bergen, plus the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee, but the discussions from the Philly and NYC offices are somewhat at odds, with the Philly office focusing on the warmth of the ocean and easterly winds keeping accumulations
I think they're all scrambling, so it's not worth focusing on their discussions, but their maps with inconsistencies are worth discussing - just look at the boundaries along Morris/Somerset where the Philly office has
 

Hmm, an IMBY question, but think it’ll be that low for MMU?


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[vegan_edible]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:54 PM, MJO812 said:

Same solution but less amounts. Onto 0z.

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correct me if im wrong but don't the 18z gfs runs use the same data set that the 12z runs do so they're not necessarily the most accurate of runs. still a good looking run for what its worth. lets hope 0z comes in a hair colder

[RockawayRowdies]

I'm expecting at least 4-5 in Rockaway borough..

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:55 PM, North and West said:

Hmm, an IMBY question, but think it’ll be that low for MMU?


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[mannynyc]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:54 PM, mannynyc said:

18z GFS weaker and east

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does seem slightly colder though

[NJwx85]

18z GFS far less impressive with Sunday snows.

[RU848789]

SIAP, but this cracked me up from Tomer Burg on being NAM'd...

 

[NJwx85]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:54 PM, mannynyc said:

18z GFS weaker and east

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100 miles East at 18z Sunday and 5mb weaker.

[Franklin0529]

Over an inch of precip on gfs

[Brasiluvsnow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:03 PM, Franklin0529 said:

Over an inch of precip on gfs

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and at hour 72 - and maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me but very very close / just inside the benchmark

[ForestHillWx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:55 PM, North and West said:

Hmm, an IMBY question, but think it’ll be that low for MMU?


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You’re by the airport right? I think you’ll be ok for 2-4/3-6; I might do a bit better in Chester with elevation. 

The ensembles have been rather consistent for our area. 

[BoulderWX]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:03 PM, Franklin0529 said:

Over an inch of precip on gfs

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Lots is a wet mix or rain. Can’t rely on QPF maps in such a marginal situation. 

[North and West]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:14 PM, ForestHillWx said:

You’re by the airport right? I think you’ll be ok for 2-4/3-6; I might do a bit better in Chester with elevation. 
The ensembles have been rather consistent for our area. 

Yup, and that makes sense. The airport is really low; I’m about 200’ above it. I think it should be an old timey north and west storm doing well out by you.


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[Franklin0529]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:14 PM, BoulderWX said:

Lots is a wet mix or rain. Can’t rely on QPF maps in such a marginal situation. 

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Oh I get it. I'm not expecting much of anything. Just stating it's a juicy Storm 

[mannynyc]

GEFS

[Nibor]

The depiction of the trailing shortwave juicing the primary makes me think of Nemo. The phasing of the energy that came out of the Great Lakes really juiced things up on the backside of that storm. 
 

edit: not saying we’re gonna see a nemo outcome 

[Franklin0529]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:23 PM, mannynyc said:

GEFS

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Looks warmer then earlier run 

[jm1220]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:28 PM, Franklin0529 said:

Looks warmer then earlier run 

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If the storm overall’s weaker it will probably be warmer. Easterly winds are warming up the surface from the city on E/S and heavier precip could help overcome the surface warmth but light precip wouldn’t do anything. And the lack of CCB behind the low means cold air won’t come back in with heavier snow. The CCB is a possibility if the mid level lows close off south of us but if not it’ll be minimal if any. 

[Franklin0529]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:31 PM, jm1220 said:

If the storm overall’s weaker it will probably be warmer. Easterly winds are warming up the surface from the city on E/S and heavier precip could help overcome the surface warmth but light precip wouldn’t do anything. And the lack of CCB behind the low means cold air won’t come back in with heavier snow. The CCB is a possibility if the mid level lows close off south of us but if not it’ll be minimal if any. 

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I get it

[psv88]

  On 1/4/2024 at 10:31 PM, jm1220 said:

If the storm overall’s weaker it will probably be warmer. Easterly winds are warming up the surface from the city on E/S and heavier precip could help overcome the surface warmth but light precip wouldn’t do anything. And the lack of CCB behind the low means cold air won’t come back in with heavier snow. The CCB is a possibility if the mid level lows close off south of us but if not it’ll be minimal if any. 

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My thoughts remain the same. Sloppy inch or 2 for us. 

[BoulderWX]

Quickly losing interest in this one but something to track at least. Expecting a sloppy 2-4” here in morris county 

[HVSnowLover]

I mostly agree with Uptons map although still think this could trend one way or another.

[the_other_guy]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:01 PM, BoulderWX said:

Quickly losing interest in this one but something to track at least. Expecting a sloppy 2-4” here in morris county 

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why are you losing interest? just curious?  you have anything is last year? January looks nice and warm. this may be it for the month

[HVSnowLover]

There is going to be a sharp gradient for sure with this one but not sure yet if it's just NW of I95, Along I287, or with a really bad trend I84. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:34 PM, Nibor said:

Central Park will find a way to measure .9 

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Provided they even measure. These marginal sloppy events they don't even bother sometimes. 

[BoulderWX]

  On 1/4/2024 at 11:11 PM, the_other_guy said:

why are you losing interest? just curious?  you have anything is last year? January looks nice and warm. this may be it for the month

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Fair question. Don’t like the trends. Thinking it trends even lower. I don’t care if snow gets washed away the next day but could do without a gross slushy mix. Part of me thought we could see a 3-6, or 6-8 event by me but think the odds are becoming slim to none of that happening