Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[mikeysed]

If this trend continues by tonight NYC could be 6+ and have warning criteria. Would only need a 20 mile swing for that to happen

[Allsnow]

We pray 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

That 2nd short wave keeps getting stronger and stronger.  Might not be done yet. That's pretty close to something really good to the city. Storm is basically a BM track now 

yup, pretty well defined trend here. that's making the difference, was definitely a nod to the GFS

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Let’s say it together now for nyc and the coast: Storm cancel. 

Let's say it together now-read more post less

[Snowlover11]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Let’s say it together now for nyc and the coast: Storm cancel. 

its actually gotten better for nyc and even the coast. so not sure what you’re seeing.

[mannynyc]

8 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

If this trend continues by tonight NYC could be 6+ and have warning criteria. Would only need a 20 mile swing for that to happen

From your mouth to Gods ears

[forkyfork]

this is awful for the coast lol

[Franklin0529]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, pretty well defined trend here. that's making the difference, was definitely a nod to the GFS

If this trend continues, the city an coast have a shot at few inches id think right?

[psv88]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this is awful for the coast lol

That’s before hours 69-72 when the CCB tries to develop and pivot through. Show 69-72.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

If this trend continues, the city a coast have a shot at few inches id think right?

It’s looking more interesting that’s for sure. City streets may stay wet. Outer boroughs may be able to get some snow. 
 

very interesting for LI north shore now. Very rough forecast. 1-5”?

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That’s before hours 69-72 when the CCB tries to develop and pivot through. Show 69-72.

still above freezing

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

It’s looking more interesting that’s for sure. City streets may stay wet. Outer boroughs may be able to get some snow. 
 

very interesting for LI north shore now. Very rough forecast. 1-5”?

Tough forecast. Gotta see if that 2nd wave keeps trending stronger. Get that to catch up an it can bomb out an crank that ccb earlier. It's close now, still time to trend more favorably 

[Allsnow]

Just now, forkyfork said:

still above freezing

Yikes for Boston 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Yikes for Boston 

Will be interesting to see the EPS. Especially for the burbs.

[psv88]

Just now, forkyfork said:

still above freezing

Shows above freezing up to central Ma. I doubt they go to rain.
 

kuchera and Snow depth show accum for city and coast now. I have no clue what tot expect here. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s looking more interesting that’s for sure. City streets may stay wet. Outer boroughs may be able to get some snow. 
 

very interesting for LI north shore now. Very rough forecast. 1-5”?

I said it before. I’ll say it again. Storm chasing to bayville lol

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Shows above freezing up to central Ma. I doubt they go to rain.
 

kuchera and Snow depth show accum for city and coast now. I have no clue what tot expect here. 

Difference is proximity to ocean water. 

[psv88]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

I said it before. I’ll say it again. Storm chasing to bayville lol

I think if Bayville does well the whole north shore out to mattituck does well

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yikes for Boston 

Could be a storm where Logan gets 1-2” and Fenway Park 6”. Rt 128/Waltham and Newton areas and west are probably where you want to be safe. 2/1/2021 was very similar for them. They need the dynamic cooling from heavy rates. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Difference is proximity to ocean water. 

Euro snow depth and Kuchera should take that into account. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I think if Bayville does well the whole north shore out to mattituck does well

It’s rare south shore rains while north shore gets a snow storm. But it happens 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

still above freezing

 

Yeah, rule we always used is you want 700mb to -8 to -10C if you're gonna flip over on back side and accumulate...its -5C so not even close

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I think if Bayville does well the whole north shore out to mattituck does well

I doubt I get more than an inch or two since these CCB are often over modeled and we have to deal with the same lousy E flow coming into the storm. You want to see a closed 500 low southeast of you to know you’re in the game for one. But I’ll be thrilled to get a surprise. 

[Allsnow]

Congrats Seattle next week 

[Stormlover74]

This storm seems to have everything going against it for any real accumulation at the coast. If we manage anything it will be a miracle

[forkyfork]

snow maps are useless junk. look under the hood

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yeah, rule we always used is you want 700mb to -8 to -10C if you're gonna flip over on back side and accumulate...its -5C so not even close

 

Numerical numbers show DPs around 32...its really close...as currently shown I think NYC is 34/32 in there and maybe it accumulates verbatim if its coming down crazy hard but current thermals to me fall short unless this thing can further phase/bomb earlier...no doubt the fact it will be overnight would help, even in January

[NittanyWx]

31 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

That 2nd short wave keeps getting stronger and stronger.  Might not be done yet. That's pretty close to something really good to the city. Storm is basically a BM track now 

Not sure I'd go that far, but this was encouraging for those northern burbs and the risk of CCB banding for those folks increased today, particularly east of the Hudson.

 

 

[Brian5671]

Atlantic waters are warm too from the torch December-east flow will be even warmer than usual

[NJwx85]

If you’re looking for more than a sloppy couple of inches we will need stronger dynamics to help cool the BL. Still you’re looking at 33-34 degrees in the city during peak intensity. The better hope is that Sunday materializes.