Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[North and West]

The GFS is warm and weak. The EURO is colder and stronger. Oh no, the GFS is colder the EURO is warmer. Ah, they’re both too warm. The low is too far east, so it’s suppressed, now it’s too far west and I87 isn’t safe. 4 days out it’s nowcasting time. In a way, I didn’t miss not having something to chase, because of the model chaos. Everything was going fine until someone invoked March 2001. That storm should be banned from ever being mentioned. 

I drove past 287 yesterday.


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[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, I think this one’s done for the city/coast, mostly or all rain. Sucks. And for those jealous of SNE, avoid their sub forum for a few days since what they want isn’t what we want other than maybe a miracle with the trailing shortwave lingering some snow. Enjoy NW crew. 

SNE took all the snow even from the NW crew. Yes they will still get snow but the majority is going to fall in SNE 

[North and West]

Boston gets crushed on every model now. We can't win at all.
It's amazing 

I always love your enthusiasm, but that’s like bemoaning that South Jersey has better beaches than North Jersey.


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[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

SNE took all the snow even from thr NW crew. Yes they will still get snow but the majority is going to fall in SNE 

There’s absolutely nothing unusual about that. There’s a reason Boston averages nearly double NYC and NYC averages nearly double DCA. The airmass is just too marginal. I have been saying for months this winter is 1/15-2/15 

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SNE took all the snow even from thr NW crew. Yes they will still get snow but the majority is going to fall in SNE 

Like I and some others said a couple days ago, big picture-wise this isn’t a favorable setup for us despite the model wobbles that always happen. There was/is a small window where the city can snow but that window’s much smaller than for places like Boston where they have latitude for more confluence/cold and longitude to work with the Atlantic more for moisture. We have a marginal at best airmass, easterly initial flow off the warm waters, and a setup that will try to get the low on a hugger/unfavorable track. When you consider those factors and manage expectations, the disappointment isn’t as bad. Makes perfect sense that we get screwed. 

[nightknights]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But they weren't even modeled to get alot of snow. It's just frustrating. 

When will you ever learn if you are in the bullseye 6 days out you will not be in the bullseye game time

[TriPol]

29 minutes ago, North and West said:

I drove past 287 yesterday.


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Mazal tov. 

[allgame830]

Just now, TriPol said:

Mazal tov. 

I guess 287 really is going to be dividing line here for something plowable to very minimal. 

[suzook]

The train of precip being wasted...just need some cold.

[BoulderWX]

15 minutes ago, nightknights said:

When will you ever learn if you are in the bullseye 6 days out you will not be in the bullseye game time

Said this yesterday and one poster thought I was just being pessimistic. Have a place booked in the poconos but now thinking Catskills might be a better bet. 

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, nightknights said:

When will you ever learn if you are in the bullseye 6 days out you will not be in the bullseye game time

This is the kind of setup that others pointed out could trend north at the end. When you’re relying on stout confluence to otherwise hold back a storm that would want to go on a bad track, at our latitude we’re playing very long odds. The confluence weakens which it often does, the SE ridge strengthens which it often does at the end etc, the storm will keep coming north. And wouldn’t be surprised if that’s not done on the modeling. 

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, I think this one’s done for the city/coast, mostly or all rain. Sucks. And for those jealous of SNE, avoid their sub forum for a few days since what they want isn’t what we want other than maybe a miracle with the trailing shortwave lingering some snow. Enjoy NW crew. 

in  a way it's good-- do we really want to see, say, 1.1" inches of snow to end a snow "drought"? Not me-- all or nothing, so if we're not going to get at least a few inches, we should get nothing at all.  Looks like most are onboard with the idea that our time will come later in the winter, so just wait.

 

[IrishRob17]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SNE took all the snow even from the NW crew. Yes they will still get snow but the majority is going to fall in SNE 

Nobody “took” anything, that’s not how it works, it’s not how any of this works. Take a break for a few days. 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Like I and some others said a couple days ago, big picture-wise this isn’t a favorable setup for us despite the model wobbles that always happen. There was/is a small window where the city can snow but that window’s much smaller than for places like Boston where they have latitude for more confluence/cold and longitude to work with the Atlantic more for moisture. We have a marginal at best airmass, easterly initial flow off the warm waters, and a setup that will try to get the low on a hugger/unfavorable track. When you consider those factors and manage expectations, the disappointment isn’t as bad. Makes perfect sense that we get screwed. 

you'd think with a hugger track Boston would be screwed way more than us (like for example in the Millenium storm or late February 2010).

 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Boston gets crushed on every model now. We can't win at all.

It's amazing 

This is exactly what it was like in the 70s and 80s coming of age on LI.  Most every winter was like this with a few exceptions.  I did not experience a storm with greater than 8” of snow that I could remember until I was 16.  I remember one time there was an event where it rained on the island and snowed on the hills in CT not far from the sound.  The following afternoon I went to a nearby beach and could see it across the sound in the late afternoon sun.  It is what it is and it represents the climatology of the area.

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There’s absolutely nothing unusual about that. There’s a reason Boston averages nearly double NYC and NYC averages nearly double DCA. The airmass is just too marginal. I have been saying for months this winter is 1/15-2/15 

 

fwiw that was an amazing time with an amazing amount of cold and snow for us!

our biggest storms usually outnumber Boston's though (for example March 1888, December 1947, February 1983, Millenium storm, February 2010, January 2016, etc.)

[lee59]

Boston may end up with mixing issues also

[LibertyBell]

Just now, lee59 said:

Boston may end up with mixing issues also

Yes, they probably will.  Logan is right on the water.

[Brian5671]

Rule of thumb-you want the storm S and E 4-5 days out-the fact that this was in the sweet spot a few days ago was a red flag.   Almost always bumps N and W right up to go time.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

This is exactly what it was like in the 70s and 80s coming of age on LI.  Most every winter was like this with a few exceptions.  I did not experience a storm with greater than 8” of snow that I could remember until I was 16.  I remember one time there was an event where it rained on the island and snowed on the hills in CT not far from the sound.  The following afternoon I went to a nearby beach and could see it across the sound in the late afternoon sun.  It is what it is and it represents the climatology of the area.

no the 70s and 80s are an aberration, we usually have a few storms every decade where we get heavy snow and Boston gets fringed or we get heavy snow and Boston gets rain.

Of course they average more snow but there's a reason both we and Baltimore have more 20"+ snowstorms than Boston does.

[Poker2015]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

again, you want to be N of 78 and along or west of 287 to have a good shot at plowable snowfall from this. set expectations to zero near the city

That's literally where I live, where they intersect...tough call

[Dark Star]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Rule of thumb-you want the storm S and E 4-5 days out-the fact that this was in the sweet spot a few days ago was a red flag.   Almost always bumps N and W right up to go time.

Or more accurate models?  If the models "correct" north and west all the time, isn't it a problem with the models?  I wasn't expecting much from the beginning, since the air temperature was marginal, at best...

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Or more accurate models?  If the models "correct" north and west all the time, isn't it a problem with the models?  I wasn't expecting much from the beginning, since the air temperature was marginal, at best...

That would help too-but knowing the bias of the models helps...GFS is always too far S and E so if it's a big hit 3-4 days out you know we've got a problem...

[snywx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

SNE took all the snow even from the NW crew. Yes they will still get snow but the majority is going to fall in SNE 

Every piece of guidance has 8”+ up here. No one took anything away. 

[North and West]

Every piece of guidance has 8”+ up here. No one took anything away. 

why are you taking everyone’s snow


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[Big Jims Videos]

The sad thing about this is the fact tv stations who have not been overly hyping this, rather holding fort with the "stay tuned as the situation unfolds and we learn more information" messaging is lost by the fact that social media is plastered with the snowiest model runs starting last weekend by the fakes.  Folks will once again say "where's my snow" without ever even listening to the on air mets, and instead say they were wrong again. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, snywx said:

Every piece of guidance has 8”+ up here. No one took anything away. 

Yeah the northern areas of this sub forum will do good. 

The 6z euro came in a tad colder per NE forum. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, snywx said:

Every piece of guidance has 8”+ up here. No one took anything away. 

Some don't look at maps beyond their backyard.  This always favored the interior but people hear/see what they want to see and ignore the model biases

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

The sad thing about this is the fact tv stations who have not been overly hyping this, rather holding fort with the "stay tuned as the situation unfolds and we learn more information" messaging is lost by the fact that social media is plastered with the snowiest model runs starting last weekend by the fakes.  Folks will once again say "where's my snow" without ever even listening to the on air mets, and instead say they were wrong again. 

Most don't tune into TV newscasts anymore-like you said it's all social media clickbait and hype..

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

SNE took all the snow even from the NW crew. Yes they will still get snow but the majority is going to fall in SNE 

I think we'll do fine up here. SNE coast will be a shit shoe and Boston will probably mix. Why do people always congratulate Boston three days before a storm? This happened all last winter and they barely ended up with 10 inches of snow. Last winter sucked but we (Orange County) at least broke 24 inches for the winter.