Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Franklin0529]

Not liking the amped up runs. City coast will be mostly rain with that scenario. Need a weaker wave or stronger high 

[Nibor]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:11 PM, Franklin0529 said:

Not liking the amped up runs. City coast will be mostly rain with that scenario. Need a weaker wave or stronger high 

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Weaker isn’t necessarily good for the coast. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:15 PM, Nibor said:

Weaker isn’t necessarily good for the coast. 

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It's not

Amped is but not close to the coast

[winterwx21]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:11 PM, jm1220 said:

We have a small window near the city between the storm being too warm/NW and weak sauce/SE. It’s possible the storm goes through those goalposts but it’ll be tough. 

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Yeah a true thread the needle as we've been saying. Let's hope we get lucky. We certainly got lucky with many thread the needle storms during the great run of snowfall winters we had before the last few years. You never know. 

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 2:52 PM, MJO812 said:

Nam is slightly more amped than 6z but nothing earth shattering.

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the bigger concern is why are you looking at a mesoscale model this far out ?

[Franklin0529]

Fast mover too 

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:10 PM, winterwx21 said:

Yep I think that would be a good early call for NYC if you had to make one, but it's very early to be making a call. A long way to go. 

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its way to early in a borderline situation to be making any call 3 + days out

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 1:47 PM, MJO812 said:

Eps and Euro have been too amped recently ever since the upgrade.

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any documentation provided by those in charge of these models to prove your theory ?

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:23 PM, NEG NAO said:

any documentation provided by those in charge of these models to prove your theory ?

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I guess you haven't been paying attention in the last few years.

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:15 PM, Nibor said:

Weaker isn’t necessarily good for the coast. 

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exactly

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:24 PM, MJO812 said:

I guess you haven't been paying attention in the last few years.

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if you are going to be making blanket statements provide some proof.........oh and thanks in advance

 

[Stormlover74]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:18 PM, NEG NAO said:

the bigger concern is why are you looking at a mesoscale model this far out ?

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Mostly for signs of a warm nose causing us to flip to sleet. But I agree the nam won't see that til Friday 

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:25 PM, NEG NAO said:

if you are going to be making blanket statements provide some proof.........

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  On 1/3/2024 at 4:25 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Mostly for signs of a warm nose causing us to flip to sleet. But I agree the nam won't see that til Friday 

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yea but that nose might not be real that far out

 

[Allsnow]

Nice front end on the cmc next week 

[Stormlover74]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:28 PM, NEG NAO said:

 

yea but that nose might not be real that far out

 

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If it sees it it's usually right. It's rare we luck and stay all snow if the low is onshore. 

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:29 PM, Allsnow said:

Nice front end on the cmc next week 

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chances are with all the blocking a secondary may develop along the coast south of us - this was discussed by Arcfield Weathers Paul Dorian this morning..

 

 

[Islandersguy]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:00 PM, vegan_edible said:

gfs in a bit stronger than last night and keeps the fun going with some light-er snow all day sunday. lets hops the cmc and euro show something a little more amped and we find a happy middle ground. im hoping for a solid 5-6inches in white plains. i do wonder though since i've only lived down here for a year and half and experienced snow twice in this region, would y'all consider white plains a "coastal" area? 

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Live here too. I feel like we are the beginning of the non coastal area/ inland, but I really have no clue! I’ve wanted to know that too!

[Stormlover74]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:29 PM, Allsnow said:

Nice front end on the cmc next week 

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North of 78 barely flips to any rain

[MJO812]

Gefs still weak

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:30 PM, Stormlover74 said:

If it sees it it's usually right. It's rare we luck and stay all snow if the low is onshore. 

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most models have the LP moving away east northeast from the coast and also light snow lingering through Sunday

[Allsnow]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:32 PM, Stormlover74 said:

North of 78 barely flips to any rain

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Strong high 

[binbisso]

The two positives are The snow will fall at night and temperatures Friday night will be in the low 20s away from the immediate shore and heat islands.

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:32 PM, Stormlover74 said:

North of 78 barely flips to any rain

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meaning a mixed bag NYC and metro suburbs just west - Hudson - eastern Essex - eastern Union and Northern Middlesex Counties

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:37 PM, binbisso said:

The two positives are The snow will fall at night and temperatures Friday night will be in the low 20s away from the immediate shore and heat islands.

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and the nights are long..........sad we have to consider that on January 6th - 7th

 

[Stormlover74]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:38 PM, NEG NAO said:

meaning a mixed bag NYC and metro suburbs just west - Hudson - eastern Essex - eastern Union and Northern Middlesex Counties

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Well it's just one run of one model. Gfs still flips us to heavy rain

[Brasiluvsnow]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:00 PM, vegan_edible said:

gfs in a bit stronger than last night and keeps the fun going with some light-er snow all day sunday. lets hops the cmc and euro show something a little more amped and we find a happy middle ground. im hoping for a solid 5-6inches in white plains. i do wonder though since i've only lived down here for a year and half and experienced snow twice in this region, would y'all consider white plains a "coastal" area? 

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no

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:43 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Well it's just one run of one model. Gfs still flips us to heavy rain

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who is us ? wide range of precip types in a small area in the metro

 

[snywx]

Damn CMC goes to town on both events for interior sections. That HP is holding firm for 1/10 event 

[Stormlover74]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:44 PM, NEG NAO said:

who is us ? wide range of precip types in a small area in the metro

 

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South of I84 

[psv88]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:44 PM, snywx said:

Damn CMC goes to town on both events for interior sections. That HP is holding firm for 1/10 event 

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Good for the ski resorts. Pile it up!