Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[jayyy]

Warm and wet sadly. Being a Stubborn mofo

Gfs cmc icon Ukie all looked better / colder. Can never toss the euro, but it’s currently on an island as far as temps are concerned


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[RU848789]

Colder/snowier.  4 for 4 tonight...

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Colder/snowier.  4 for 4 tonight...

 

[Allsnow]

Wow 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Allsnow said:

 

I jumped the gun. That looks awesome 

[Allsnow]

Euro lingers snow all day Sunday 

[kingbaus]

Screws lower mid Atlantic but a good hit for us.

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Euro lingers snow all day Sunday 

Looks similar to the ukie

[mannynyc]

Euro is slightly east which brings heavier snow into the city. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, mannynyc said:

Euro is slightly east which brings heavier snow into the city. 

quite a difference compared to the flawed 12Z run

[SRRTA22]

Even half of that, Im sure all of us would be happy with 3-6" , hopefully we hold and can break the streak

[brooklynwx99]

kicker is weaker and confluence hangs on longer. makes all the difference

[Franklin0529]

Pure Miller A. Gotta love it! 

[mikeysed]

Kuchera and 10:1 arent too far off. It's colder.

[SI Mailman]

Already looking forward to the 12z NAM weenie run on Thursday

[RU848789]

I'd say we have a slight improvement, lol, across the board from 12Z to 0Z for the vast majority of the subforum and even from DC to Boston (except for areas well NW/inland, but they haven't had close to 0" of snow since 2022).  Better confluence, colder air, better track.  Now let's see if we can maintain this kind of consensus for a significant to major snowfall over the next 4 days - crossing fingers and I'm not superstitious, lol.  

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I'd say we have a slight improvement, lol, across the board from 12Z to 0Z for the vast majority of the subforum and even from DC to Boston (except for areas well NW/inland, but they haven't had close to 0" of snow since 2022).  Better confluence, colder air, better track.  Now let's see if we can maintain this kind of consensus for a significant to major snowfall over the next 4 days - crossing fingers and I'm not superstitious, lol.  

I'm interested in what eps shows

[mannynyc]

EPS 
 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Much better and snowier look tonight on all models.

WX/PT

[Tatamy]

06z Gfs has a flatter weaker system.  Of more interest is the system for the 10th.  Twenty four hours ago this was being portrayed as a big soaking rainstorm.  The models are now showing a system that provides a significant front end dump of snow to some well inland areas before a change to rain.  This evolution has been quite interesting to watch.  Coastal areas are all rain with this one.

[Dan76]

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Gfs might be up to his usual tricks with coastal storms.

[kdennis78]

9 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

06z Gfs has a flatter weaker system.  Of more interest is the system for the 10th.  Twenty four hours ago this was being portrayed as a big soaking rainstorm.  The models are now showing a system that provides a significant front end dump of snow to some well inland areas before a change to rain.  This evolution has been quite interesting to watch.  Coastal areas are all rain with this one.

What's well inland? I honestly would welcome snow or even ice over rain. My yard can't handle more rain.

[bluewave]

The GFS has a weaker and further south  system so it can’t draw enough cold into the storm. The ridge ahead the storm was still strong enough so temps are in the mid 30s. 

 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS has a weaker and further south  system so it can’t draw enough cold into the storm. The ridge ahead the storm was still strong enough so temps are in the mid 30s. 

 

Why did all the models get so snowy for NYC? Over 6+ 

[donsutherland1]

Early morning thoughts...

The operational ECMWF was far more aggressive than its ensembles. The share of ensemble members with 10" or more snow remained constant at around 10%. The share of ensemble members showing 4" or more declined somewhat. It's still early, but that might be the first indication that the realistic range for snowfall is beginning to narrow.

Of concern remains surface temperatures that will be above freezing for most or all of the event. Soundings will become increasingly important as the event draws closer, but this still looks to be a wet, low ratio snowfall for NYC and its nearby suburbs. At least some rain remains a risk, especially for NYC, Long Island, coastal Westchester County, and perhaps coastal Fairfield County.

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Why did all the models get so snowy for NYC? Over 6+ 

More confluence with a better track. All the models got rid of the Miller B idea.  

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

More confluence with a better track. All the models got rid of the Miller B idea.  

GFS looked like crap though. Not enough dynamics to overcome warm surface temps. 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Why did all the models get so snowy for NYC? Over 6+ 

It’s tough to rely on those 10:1 maps with marginal temperatures as the positive snow depth charts are much lower.

 

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s tough to rely on those 10:1 maps with marginal temperatures as the positive snow depth charts are much lower.

 

That doesn’t answer the question…

 

yesterday morning you were using the ukmet illustrate a point because of its warm inland track. Now, it has since went to a cold snowy and you are cherry picking the 06z gfs with surface temps…