Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I wouldn't use snow maps in borderline areas

I think making absolute statements 4 days out looks wrong....

 

[the_other_guy]

you guys are throwing in the towel on snow in the city a little too quickly. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

you guys are throwing in the towel on snow in the city a little too quickly. 

exactly

[Allsnow]

Ukmet colder and further southeast this run 

[mannynyc]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

huh ? compare the Canadian with the GFS at 12Z

four model runs feel like a day. But the Canadien has been more consistent than the GFS and Euro north since Yesterday.

[Allsnow]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Ukmet colder and further southeast this run 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

you guys are throwing in the towel on snow in the city a little too quickly. 

I think there’s a middle ground that acknowledges unfavorable shifts without throwing in the towel. There’s still time for more favorable corrections but I think we’d like to see them overnight into tomorrow to know a better outcome may still be on the table. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, mannynyc said:

four model runs feel like a day. But the Canadien has been more consistent than the GFS and Euro north since Yesterday.

you have to keep an open mind 4 days out IMO

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The best spot to have the ridge axis for snow here is around MT/Wyoming. The -PNA isn’t helping unless that trough can be progressive enough to boot it east. If we have strong easterly winds off the water that’s another strike. 

That's probably another reason why these storms do better here in later February and March-- not just colder SST but also shorter wavelengths?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

you guys are throwing in the towel on snow in the city a little too quickly. 

people have an urge for certainty when there is no certainty here.

It could even come down to (shudder) nowcasting.

[mannynyc]

12Z GEFS members. Still several good looks.
HR 114

HR 120

[snywx]

12z GEFS prob of >4"

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It really is uncanny how often that tends to correct stronger, as you’ve always discussed. 

It would make sense even though models might not show it now. Maybe the weaker western trough would induce less of a response from the SE Ridge but this is more of a Nina type pattern/outcome where we see these NW corrections at the end because of that stronger ridge. 

[North and West]

you guys are throwing in the towel on snow in the city a little too quickly. 

my dear child




.

[jbenedet]

Pretty damn cool the way the pacific jet just amps up with time with such consistency. Check out the area in Northern Gulf of Mexico. Significant El Niño flexing.

You see a firehouse pointed toward southeast Canada; that air coverages and sinks, filling our Canadian high with maritime tropical air. It doesn’t anchor and the depth of the cold weakens with time.

It’s why a significant -NAO can get neutered with a deep trough in the west and El Niño background.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You want a ridge 

I was confused because we've had snowstorms here with a trough somewhere in the west, but that's when the wavelengths are shorter.

 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Looks good nw of 287

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

If these trend persist this will be a huge victory for the Canadien model which has been the north solution for days 

The Canadian has been good with winter storm threats the last few years. A much improved model. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Looks good nw of 287

Yeah. 4-8 with around a inch for nyc 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

The Canadian has been good with winter storm threats the last few years. A much improved model. 

and it also means this matches the model run IMO

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It really is uncanny how often that tends to correct stronger, as you’ve always discussed. 

My guess is that it’s related to the Gulf Stream warming over the last 40 years. 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, North and West said:

From suppression (remember) to rain!

This is what happens when a person with bad eyesight (computer model) tries to thread a needle.  First it misses to the right, and then it misses to the left...... if it ever does thread the needle it's purely because of dumb luck lol.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

My guess is that it’s related to the Gulf Stream warming over the last 40 years. 

 

 

It's also worked in our favor as the winters from 02-03 onwards attest to as well as the big events like January 2016.....

[Wxoutlooksblog]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

explain why please ?

 

Look at the maps. The LP is way too tucked into the NJ coast.

WX/PT

[larrye]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you have to keep an open mind 4 days out IMO

I don't see where anyone has said anything with 100% certainty. But you also have to be realistic based on the data that has been made available, with the trends, with climatology, and with previous history with snow events and their likely modeling trend progression. Things can change, and they probably will. People are commenting based on data 4 days out. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's also worked in our favor as the winters from 02-03 onwards attest to as well as the big events like January 2016.....

Yeah, the NW trend is your friend if the forecast track is starting out far enough southeast in a more favorable pattern for coastal snowstorms. 
 

 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Look at the maps. The LP is way too tucked into the NJ coast.

WX/PT

still tucked into the coast a few hours later ?

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

still tucked into the coast a few hours later ?

Still rain for city an coast 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

still tucked into the coast a few hours later ?

Once you lose the colder air you're not getting it back unless there's a new source. The storm could make its own cold air if the peak vertical velocities stay overhead long enough. But often times they don't. We'll have to see. the maps even with my cataracts still show rain. The heavy rain is visible just east of the r/s line in Queens. I'm not sure if the wrap around snow gets in here. The storm is moving quickly rain almost into Boston.

WX/PT

[Tatamy]

23 minutes ago, Newman said:

Big time changes on the GEFS

The run that you show for today at 12z does not show the full duration of the event so this is misleading.  The axis of heaviest snows has shifted to the northwest and with this run is over NE PA, NW NJ, and SE NY.  Those areas see between 5 - 6” with the event with lesser amounts to the south and east.