Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Tatamy]

The 06z GEFS mean for the city is 6.8”

[Allsnow]

06z gfs was colder and further southeast then 00z. The high and confluence really helping locations closer to the coast 

[Yanksfan]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

06z gfs was colder and further southeast then 00z. The high and confluence really helping locations closer to the coast 

The run looked wonky to me. Low was really stretched out and scooted east thus the lower amounts.

[wdrag]

Don: could post on severity index. Go for it on updating. I won't recheck til tonight but the probs are up to 40% moderate impact just inland from I95.   There will be fluctuations on axis but the I think WPC has defined this reasonably well.  I like 5-10 spotty higher in their blues, but we have yet to account for mid level warming...so patience. LI just seems a little warm to me but I could be wrong. For now I think heaviest snow west of I95 and lets hope something sticks in CP.  For sure an event is coming, imo (95% chance).

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Don: could post on severity index. Go for it on updating. I won't recheck til tonight but the probs are up to 40% moderate impact just inland from I95.   There will be fluctuations on axis but the I think WPC has defined this reasonably well.  I like 5-10 spotty higher in their blues, but we have yet to account for mid level warming...so patience. LI just seems a little warm to me but I could be wrong. For now I think heaviest snow west of I95 and lets hope something sticks in CP.  For sure an event is coming, imo (95% chance).

What about the coast?

[North and West]

Not sure you'd want a snowstorm given the major cutter behind it.
With all the rain we've had that's a recipe for flooding disaster. Snow beforehand would only increase the threat. 

Clear your storm drains.


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[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

06z gfs was colder and further southeast then 00z. The high and confluence really helping locations closer to the coast 

I thought the initial danger was the storm being suppressed lol

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

yes 60 hour rule and then everyone will be looking at the various Km's 3 and 12 and 32

48 hour rule is much better for it

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Tatamy said:

0z GEFS mean is for 6-8” for all areas from I95 and to the north and west.  Two things stand out on the past 4 runs or so and that is the axis of heaviest snowfall is quite consistent in its placement.  The other is the amounts on the mean have been gradually increasing.

Looks like the Southern Poconos just north of Allentown should do well here.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not sure you'd want a snowstorm given the major cutter behind it.

With all the rain we've had that's a recipe for flooding disaster. Snow beforehand would only increase the threat. 

why doesn't anyone ever think of covering their snow piles with tarp?

[Allsnow]

06z icon bumped north 10 inches for nyc 

[bluewave]

Warmest run of the UKMET so far and even warmer than the CMC.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warmest run of the UKMET so far very similar to the CMC.

CMC barely gets the city above FRz for a short period of time. Looks like NYC will get its first snowfall this winte r

[North and West]

I always love this part. It’s like the run-up to Christmas!


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[Allsnow]

GEFS snow mean 7-8 inches 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC barely gets the city above FRz for a short period of time. Looks like NYC will get its first snowfall this winte r

first snowfall in  2 winters actually if you go by the 1" per day stat

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC barely gets the city above FRz for a short period of time. Looks like NYC will get its first snowfall this winte r

If that tucked track verifies, then the CMC will be a degree or two warmer. It’s currently running 2° too cold for NYC this morning.

[Nibor]

22 minutes ago, North and West said:

I always love this part. It’s like the run-up to Christmas!


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Yeah but this kinda Christmas is never guaranteed. 

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

The 06z GEFS mean for the city is 6.8”

With surface temps in the mid 30's, you'd take the under.  Clown maps are exciting to look at, but you do still need to check those temperature panels and soundings...

[SnoSki14]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warmest run of the UKMET so far and even warmer than the CMC.

I'm guessing the inland track is your thinking with this. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm guessing the inland track is your thinking with this. 

Or suppression. He posted about it yesterday. Would take a perfect track for nyc to snow because of the -pna 

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm guessing the inland track is your thinking with this. 

If this is as amped as several models show, then a coastal hugger track like the CMC is possible.

 

[wdrag]

fwiw: BOM has a solid 6-14" inland from I95 for our subforum and by 00z/11 about 4" total qpf.  These are significant events coming.. how they play?  Don's good severity post will need followup... preferably 530P when all the NWS office collaborative data has been meshed.

 

Cant post again til tonight--- hoping these next two cycles stay the course and don't abruptly corrupt. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If this is as amped as several models show, then a coastal hugger track like the CMC is possible.

 

We are in a long term -PNA state aren't we?  These last about 15 years?

Because we seem to be getting inland runner or hugger tracks no matter the ENSO state now.

It's useless to "hope" for a different Pacific state because this is the dominant state in this part of the cycle regardless of ENSO.  The same was the case in the 80s.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If this is as amped as several models show, then a coastal hugger track like the CMC is possible.

 

IMO this storm, like December 2020, can be the deciding factor in determining if CPK can end up with above average snowfall for the year. Definitely looks like a potential for a great period like February 2021 is coming by looking at the GEFS/EPS.

Agreed it's going to be tough for LI and coastal New Jersey. Central Park still in the game for some accumulation.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

We are in a long term -PNA state aren't we?  These last about 15 years?

Because we seem to be getting inland runner or hugger tracks no matter the ENSO state now.

It's useless to "hope" for a different Pacific state because this is the dominant state in this part of the cycle regardless of ENSO.  The same was the case in the 80s.

I THINK the 90s as well, although a lot of those years the entire Continent roasted more volatile).

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

IMO this storm, like December 2020, can be the deciding factor in determining if CPK can end up with above average snowfall for the year. Definitely looks like a potential for a great period like February 2021 is coming by looking at the GEFS/EPS.

Agreed it's going to be tough for LI and coastal New Jersey. Central Park still in the game for some accumulation.

Honestly, I don't think people would care if we got like 4-6 inches of snow and then rain.  Some people can be silly with their snow perfectionism (I'm guilty of it sometimes too), even if it's a 4-6 inch snow storm with rain after that-- it's still a snowstorm for us and that 4 - 6 inches of snow still counts!  We had several storms like this in the 80s and early to mid 90s (including in 92-93 before we transitioned to much heavier snowfall winters) where we got 4-6 inches of snow and then heavy rain after that.  It didn't keep us from enjoying the snow of course.  Maybe this is a transitional year where we get average snowfall like 92-93 was and then we get a few much heavier snowfall winters like what happened after that season? 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I THINK the 90s as well, although a lot of those years the entire Continent roasted more volatile).

 

I hope it's like 92-93 then, that was a fun winter with a lot of noreasters, even though many of them were mixed events it didn't keep us from enjoying the snow.  93-94 had a lot of mixed events too but was much colder and we had a historic February.  I wouldn't mind that either, even if it's not as cold as that season was.  You don't need a lot of cold to get a lot of snow.

 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

IMO this storm, like December 2020, can be the deciding factor in determining if CPK can end up with above average snowfall for the year. Definitely looks like a potential for a great period like February 2021 is coming by looking at the GEFS/EPS.

Agreed it's going to be tough for LI and coastal New Jersey. Central Park still in the game for some accumulation.

We have to hope the confluence/blocking can be strong enough to force the storm track SE. If that’s too weak I agree the track will probably be unfavorable for snow in the city and E. The western trough isn’t good unless it can act as a kicker-the SE ridge will try to pump and cause a hugger/inland track. That confluence is our hope to force the low to be kicked east.