Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Tatamy said:

It’s actually a better run for much of NW NJ and SE NY than the 12z run.  

the various models are still not in agreement on the track of the storm and the strength and location of the HP to the north - EURO should be interesting in an hour or so

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Albedoman said:

lets wait for the NAM run on Wed evening. The potential for accumulating snow is there  for sure but WSW criteria will be hard to achieve even in Allentown. We first want to get a better picture for the exact transfer location (sweetspot) nd HP energy in Quebec. The we can talk how much.  48 hours from now will tell us everything on the NAM

 

That would be the long range nam. I'd wait til Friday morning

[mannynyc]

Not a terrible look but the trend is not our friend 

[mannynyc]

Still several nice hits from the GEFS

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

That would be the long range nam. I'd wait til Friday morning

yes 60 hour rule and then everyone will be looking at the various Km's 3 and 12 and 32

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Not a terrible look but the trend is not our friend 

we have been going through and will continue to go through various trends the next few days hard to determine which way this will go........plus each 0Z and 12Z run will have updated and more accurate Radiosonde data fed into them.....

[Wxoutlooksblog]

7 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

lets wait for the NAM run on Wed evening. The potential for accumulating snow is there  for sure but WSW criteria will be hard to achieve even in Allentown. We first want to get a better picture for the exact transfer location (sweetspot) nd HP energy in Quebec. The we can talk how much.  48 hours from now will tell us everything on the NAM

 

I would be extremely surprised if the NAM correctly called this event Wednesday evening. I'd be shocked really.

WX/PT

[Tatamy]

0z GEFS mean is for 6-8” for all areas from I95 and to the north and west.  Two things stand out on the past 4 runs or so and that is the axis of heaviest snowfall is quite consistent in its placement.  The other is the amounts on the mean have been gradually increasing.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would be extremely surprised if the NAM correctly called this event Wednesday evening. I'd be shocked really.

WX/PT

I'd be surprised if the NAM got it right Friday evening. Saturday morning it might be within range for the NAM, maybe.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Another thing as of now worth noting. There is not much of a reinforcing colder air mass  coming in on the backside of the storm as it pulls away. This is important because as the lifting and vertical velocity dynamics pass their peak whatever snow there is falling will probably mix or change back over. Instead of an incoming HP we have the upper low which could bring a short period of rain or a mix early Sunday night. The incoming cold air is behind that upper low. But that cold air will most likely be wasted as the next storm system heads for the Lakes.

WX/PT

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Another thing as of now worth noting. There is not much of a reinforcing colder air mass  coming in on the backside of the storm as it pulls away. This is important because as the lifting and vertical velocity dynamics pass their peak whatever snow there is falling will probably mix or change back over. Instead of an incoming HP we have the upper low which could bring a short period of rain or a mix early Sunday night. The incoming cold air is behind that upper low. But that cold air will most likely be wasted as the next storm system heads for the Lakes.

WX/PT

The precip that you refer to will likely be quite light as the event winds down.  In any case whatever snow does fall looks to get completely washed away with the incoming rain storm later Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

So, what do we have to do to make this happen?  Damn this looks nice, even if it's 5+ days out.  

Pray

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

Pray

Sacrifice your snow blower

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sacrifice your snow blower

Can we throw snowman into a volcano ? Keeping with the thread looking forward to the overnight runs 

[TriPol]

If we can push off this storm for 12 hours, we could get a helluva Giants game.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, mannynyc said:

Not a terrible look but the trend is not our friend 

Yeah this is a rainstorm. Keep the shades closed for the coast til February. 

[Irish]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If we can push off this storm for 12 hours, we could get a helluva Giants game.

We don't need snow for that. Watching the Giants play is like being in hell already. 

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah this is a rainstorm. Keep the shades closed for the coast til February. 

this kinda stuff is why people don't post in this subforum anymore lmao

[kingbaus]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

this kinda stuff is why people don't post in this subforum anymore lmao

Hopefully he's being sarcastic.

[Stormlover74]

Well I feel more comfortable having the gfs and euro on our side than the cmc and ukie

[NEG NAO]

0Z Euro

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF increases confluence and subsequent HP. moves south as a result and brings sig snow to everyone

[NEG NAO]

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Looks nice. Not a lot of wiggle room for us to go much further north though

[Stormlover74]

The euro is mid teens Monday night to near 60 24 hours later. 

[SnoSki14]

Not sure you'd want a snowstorm given the major cutter behind it.

With all the rain we've had that's a recipe for flooding disaster. Snow beforehand would only increase the threat. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not sure you'd want a snowstorm given the major cutter behind it.

With all the rain we've had that's a recipe for flooding disaster. Snow beforehand would only increase the threat. 

I’ll take my chances 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’ll take my chances 

We'll break our streak one way or another. February could be very wintry imo. 

Anything this month will be a bonus

[mannynyc]

Good look on the EPS

[Allsnow]

EPS snow mean is 6 for nyc