Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[RU848789]

Really liked Upton's discussion today...

Attention then turns to the second half of the weekend. While there
is a general agreement on a potential storm system to pass near the
region Saturday night and Sunday, confidence is very low on any
specific impacts including precipitation types, precip amounts, and
winds. The exact timing is uncertain, but appears to occur sometime
Saturday night into Sunday/Sunday night.

The 12z deterministic and ensemble suite includes scenarios that
give the area an all snow event, a mixed precipitation event, or one
that has at least the southern half of the area in plain rain with
potential of wintry precip inland. There are also solutions that
indicate the system passing far enough south that little to no
precip occurs in the CWA. It is important to stress that any of
these solutions are possible, but we cannot say with any confidence
which one will occur. The model guidance is likely to waiver many
times in the next several days as the main southern stream energy is
still over the north central Pacific. The energy looks to reach the
western US Tuesday night into Wednesday. The evolution of the
northern stream over southern Canada is also important to the
outcome from this potential system.

The NBM does indicate a respectable 70 percent chance of measurable
precip (greater than 0.01") during time frame, and about a 50
percent chance of greater than 0.25". Deciding to Cap PoPs off at 50
percent for now given that it is still just under a week out.
Precipitation types will be fine tuned as models converge and
forecast confidence increases.

[WestBabylonWeather]

The next 48 hours will be very exciting 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Still have about 48 hours or so until the NAM gets its first chance to start parsing out the warm layers associated with this event.

A way to tell is always the 700/850 low tracks (way too early to tell with this). If 850 goes NW of you, you’ll almost definitely mix for a chunk of the event. 

[MJO812]

Henry Marguisity

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Henry Marguisity

 

Is he really making a map now? I appreciate the enthusiasm but damn 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Henry Marguisity

 

Thanks! How is the GEFS looking 

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks! How is the GEFS looking 

Northern NJ / SE NY Jackpot with 7-8” mean.  Less for coastal areas.

[jayyy]

18z GFS is a mauling for the DC - BAL corridor. NYC gets in on the fun as well. Great suite.

[ForestHillWx]

Re: the 10th, I think we need to clear the deck of the 7th, before speaking in definitive outcomes for thereafter  

Let’s deal with the potential for this first significant storm in 2 years, before washing it away. 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Is he really making a map now? I appreciate the enthusiasm but damn 

Yeah way too early 

[North and West]

Re: the 10th, I think we need to clear the deck of the 7th, before speaking in definitive outcomes for thereafter  
Let’s deal with the potential for this first significant storm in 2 years, before washing it away. 

Ding. Better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.


.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Henry Marguisity

 

4-12? Might as well be really bold and call for 1-12”

[Albedoman]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Henry Marguisity

 

Walter Drag, I find this really unusual that Henry would post such a map in a topsy turvy weather pattern we are in right now. There is no set weather pattern at this time This amount of snow he is depicting is not even on the NAM 84 hours yet?  This type of  snow hype is nonsensical. Whatever happened to realistic forecasting?

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Walter Drag, I find this really unusual that Henry would post such a map in a topsy turvy weather pattern we are in right now. There is no set weather pattern at this time This amount of snow he is depicting is not even on the NAM 84 hours yet?  This type of  snow hype is nonsensical. Whatever happened to realistic forecasting?

He used to have a job at accuweather and now he has his own freelance company that survives on subscribers. And how do you get more subscribers?

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

He used to have a job at accuweather and now he has his own freelance company that survives on subscribers. And how do you get more subscribers?

Metsfan should start his own wx company. 

[uofmiami]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Metsfan should start his own wx company. 

Every winter outlook is AN snowfall guaranteed 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Metsfan should start his own wx company. 

I was a moderator for a weather forum back in the day .

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

Every winter outlook is AN snowfall guaranteed 

And the Mets will win it all

[WestBabylonWeather]

29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

He used to have a job at accuweather and now he has his own freelance company that survives on subscribers. And how do you get more subscribers?

When I became a weenie in say the late 90s early 2000s Joe bastardi had an Accuweather blog. That’s where I started my journey of lies 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

When I became a weenie in say the late 90s early 2000s Joe bastardi had an Amwx blog. That’s where I started my journey of lies 

And because we had all those great winters and he always predicted cold and snowy he seemed like a genius. And yeah Henry had a blog too. He'd put on his dumb big daddy hat

[H2Otown_WX]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

When I became a weenie in say the late 90s early 2000s Joe bastardi had an Amwx blog. That’s where I started my journey of lies 

No he had an Accuweather blog. There was no amwx lol. I also fell victim to his lies a little bit after you.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

No he had an Accuweather blog. There was no amwx lol. I also fell victim to his lies a little bit after you.

He busted so hard in 2001-02 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Ding. Better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.


.

Yeah, couldn't care less whether we have a significant snowfall which is washed away 3 days later - I just want to see some decent friggin' snow for the first time in a long time.  

[Tatamy]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Metsfan should start his own wx company. 

It’s easier to do than you think.  Set up a YouTube channel and you can provide users with graphics like that shown above with commentary.  If you reach 1000 subscribers you start getting paid. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

10 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

No he had an Accuweather blog. There was no amwx lol. I also fell victim to his lies a little bit after you.

I meant accuweather. That’s where I started. I typed before thinking 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And because we had all those great winters and he always predicted cold and snowy he seemed like a genius. And yeah Henry had a blog too. He'd put on his dumb big daddy hat

I use to watch all his videos daily. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I meant accuweather. That’s where I started. I typed before thinking 

There wasn't much else back then. No social media yet. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

There wasn't much else back then. No social media yet. 

Yup. I remember waiting for the blog updates of the Mets. And I started in the horror of 97-98 was always ten days away. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yup. I remember waiting for the blog updates of the Mets. And I started in the horror of 97-98 was always ten days away. 

Try being a snow lover before the weather Channel and the internet lol. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I remember watching the weather channel religiously too. Watching the storm maps for the five day starting with slamming into the Pacific Northwest and making their way across. I feel like that’s changed dramatically