Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[snowman19]

Just now, jayyy said:

Huh? El Niño is the mechanism that’s finally allowing the PAC to become more favorable. The PAC has been the proverbial kiss of death for the entire east coast the past few years. Not sure I agree with this. The EPO part, sure, it won’t remain negative… but disagree about the pac jet. The niño prevents the pac jet from remaining too extended for long durations of time.


.

That is not correct at all. Strong/super El Niño = raging strong/extended PAC jet and +EPO with an east displaced Aleutian Low 

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Agree 100%.  While reality has not occurred... if this general modeling continues through both storms... this will be a memorable  pair of events, NOT THE WORST but for January will rank as significant  I think this more of a spring setup. We cant forget wind and coastal flooding.

If the first one misses to our south, then the above paragraph is misleading. 

walt as the old timer around here, I absolutely agree with you. The consequences of a 8-12 in snow then a 2-4 inch follow up rain event would be disastrous to the Lehigh Valley. I have recorded over 11 inches of rain in December already with another five inches of precipitable water in wet snow and rain hitting the ground will produce widespread riverine flooding and not just local streams.  The karst ghost lakes have also appeared in the karst areas of the LV with roads still under water in places three days after  last weeks rain. This is the fist time I have see them in over five years and they usually appear after the ground has been frozen.  The ground is not frozen yet which is a real concern and justifiably so. So what does this mean?

The Delaware, Raritan,  Schuylkill and Passaic rivers will be flooding big time if the second storm becomes a firehose. All the media crap of an atmospheric river present in California will be nothing to what we have experienced the last 45 days here in eastern PA/NJ with flooding rains and the the what the models are depicting. This is absolutely historical in nature and you are spot on by your synopsis. In my 45+ years of meteorological experience, I have only  seen such a flooding scenario open up  like what is being modeled and that was January 96 and believe me if this scenario unfolds as the models are hinting , we will see a 96  redux of this historical flooding situation again in our region. Many of the posters in these forums were in diapers or not even born  in 96 and have no idea how bad the flooding can be. I will be watching closely believe me

 

 

[North and West]

walt as the old timer around here, I absolutely agree with you. The consequences of a 8-12 in snow then a 2-4 inch follow up rain event would be disastrous to the Lehigh Valley. I have recorded over 11 inches of rain in December already with another five inches of precipitable water in wet snow and rain hitting the ground will produce widespread riverine flooding and not just local streams.  The karst ghost lakes have also appeared in the karst areas of the LV with roads still under water in places three days after  last weeks rain. This is the fist time I have see them in over five years and they usually appear after the ground has been frozen.  The ground is not frozen yet which is a real concern and justifiably so. So what does this mean?
The Delaware, Raritan,  Schuylkill and Passaic rivers will be flooding big time if the second storm becomes a firehose. All the media crap of an atmospheric river present in California will be nothing to what we have experienced the last 45 days here in eastern PA/NJ with flooding rains and the the what the models are depicting. This is absolutely historical in nature and you are spot on by your synopsis. In my 45+ years of meteorological experience, I have only  seen such a flooding scenario open up  like what is being modeled and that was January 96 and believe me if this scenario unfolds as the models are hinting , we will see a 96  redux of this historical flooding situation again in our region. Many of the posters in these forums were in diapers or not even born  in 96 and have no idea how bad the flooding can be. I will be watching closely believe me
 
 

https://www.wnep.com/article/entertainment/places/on-the-pa-road/looking-back-at-the-floods-of-1996/523-2f256ba2-5eb0-4005-96e3-9c65ae7bd89a


.

[wdrag]

27 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

walt as the old timer around here, I absolutely agree with you. The consequences of a 8-12 in snow then a 2-4 inch follow up rain event would be disastrous to the Lehigh Valley. I have recorded over 11 inches of rain in December already with another five inches of precipitable water in wet snow and rain hitting the ground will produce widespread riverine flooding and not just local streams.  The karst ghost lakes have also appeared in the karst areas of the LV with roads still under water in places three days after  last weeks rain. This is the fist time I have see them in over five years and they usually appear after the ground has been frozen.  The ground is not frozen yet which is a real concern and justifiably so. So what does this mean?

The Delaware, Raritan,  Schuylkill and Passaic rivers will be flooding big time if the second storm becomes a firehose. All the media crap of an atmospheric river present in California will be nothing to what we have experienced the last 45 days here in eastern PA/NJ with flooding rains and the the what the models are depicting. This is absolutely historical in nature and you are spot on by your synopsis. In my 45+ years of meteorological experience, I have only  seen such a flooding scenario open up  like what is being modeled and that was January 96 and believe me if this scenario unfolds as the models are hinting , we will see a 96  redux of this historical flooding situation again in our region. Many of the posters in these forums were in diapers or not even born  in 96 and have no idea how bad the flooding can be. I will be watching closely believe me

 

 

Very good post.  It’s a matter of reality.  Thank you.  I think folks need to be aware of potential if it’s multi ensembled.  I just saw CPC 6-14 day and they hammer biggest rains south jersey to va.

[North and West]

Very good post.  It’s a matter of reality.  Thank you.  I think folks need to be aware of potential if it’s multi ensembled.  I just saw CPC 6-14 day and they hammer biggest rains south jersey to va.

100% true. Backup sump pump batteries are a good call if there’s wind and power outages to go along with rain and snowmelt.


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[keno19]

models this year have way over performed wind gusts

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

It used to be a given the gfs would be suppressed at this range and come north at the last minute. That was supposedly fixed with the upgrade but it may end up being the case again 

Benjamin Franklin once said, “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes, and the GFS being suppressed.”

[gravitylover]

@Albedoman and I are on the same train. Good post dude.

[Albedoman]

13 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

@Albedoman and I are on the same train. Good post dude.

thanks  just want to give you guys a heads up

 

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just 1-2° too warm in an already marginal set up would be an issue. This storm may turn out as a be careful what you wish for if the interior spots get a significant snow. December has seen record rainfall and flooding in the Northeast. There is strong model support for a follow up system which would probably cut to the Lakes. Heavy rains + snowmelt would be really unwanted for interior spots. Even coastal areas could eventually see flooding with more follow up heavy rainstorms. 

Looks like any snow will be gone in only a few days with the follow up cutter

[Volcanic Winter]

Definitely, but that's usually the case anyway. What do we think this is, the north pole?

 

...

[stu]

20 minutes ago, North and West said:

sump pump batteries

Back in 2012, about ten days ahead of Hurricane Sandy, already projected to hit our area... I ran out to Lowes to pick up a gas powered generator. For $275, I got a 4000-watt, American made, Champion generator.  About the only extra feature was that the generator was on wheels, making it really easy to roll in and out of the garage.  Thirteen years later, she is still working perfectly. About every three months, I let her run for five minutes and then turn off the fuel and let the generator burn off whatever is left in the engine until she conks out. It holds five gallons of fuel, and I keep her topped off so moisture (water) does not build up in the gas tank. Finally, I add Sta-Bill fuel additive which keeps the fuel from degrading for about two years. If I haven't used up the fuel due to power outages, I transfer the fuel from the generator to my car every two years. The primary use of the generator is to keep my sump pump going as my basement will flood anytime we receive > .75 inch an hour rain rates or > 3 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. We did flood once during Ida. It was simply too much for the pump to handle. We invested $450 into a high quality pump that tripled the capacity of our current pump and have had no issues since, though our backyard has becomes a similar lake during recent heavy storms.  If you are in a flood prone area, I highly recommend you go this route.  Below is a picture from the rains two weekends ago. We received 5 inches in our area total. Our home is over 100 years old and is no longer waterproof. I run that yellow cable out to the garage ahead of large storms in anticipation of flooding. Our garage is elevated so I simply trudge out to the garage to pull-start the generator and attach extension cables to the different devices in the house that I want to power if we lose PSE&G.

 

4000 watts is enough for us to power our pump, our kitchen refrigerator, our basement refrigerator and ice chest, our gas boiler, our router, a few lamps and our charging station for our iPhones, iPads, etc. We have even added a 4000 BTU AC unit, but we could tell that was pushing the limit of the generator as it slowed the generator, but it still was able to pull through an entire night. Five gallons of fuel will power the generator for ten hours on a full load and closer to 20 hours when it's just the refrigerators and the pumps that are on the load.

 

They have the same generator on clearance at Bass Pro Shops right now.  https://www.basspro.com/shop/en/champion-power-equipment-3550w-weekender-portable-generator

 

I hope the info I've shared here will help some of you. Trust me, it's much cheaper and easier to prevent a flood than it is to pay for insurance, deal with FEMA and have to rebuild your basement every three years or so.   IM me directly if you have any questions.  And praise these forums for saving my backside and keeping me up all night when I should have been sleeping.

[MJO812]

Gfs coming a bit north 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Definitely, but that's usually the case anyway. What do we think this is, the north pole?

 

...

Snow doesn't count if it doesn't stick around at least a week

[MJO812]

Gfs

[kingbaus]

DC Balt crushed

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS

[Allsnow]

Strong high on the gfs that locks in at 1036 

[kingbaus]

Looks like a potent storm.

[NEG NAO]

[Tatamy]

Still have about 48 hours or so until the NAM gets its first chance to start parsing out the warm layers associated with this event.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Still have about 48 hours or so until the NAM gets its first chance to start parsing out the warm layers associated with this event.

Going to be a heavy wet snow where it falls.......Nam is most trustworthy under 60 hours

 

[BoulderWX]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Crushes everyone 50 miles west of the cities

I’d take that in a second. Road trip weekend. 

[kingbaus]

I knew I wasn't crazy the top analog for this storm is feb 6 2010.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Going to be a heavy wet snow where it falls.......Nam is most trustworthy under 60 hours

 

There could always be a sneaky warm layer and change to sleet over lehigh/central nj

[Tatamy]

18z GFS is quite progressive with the following event moving in during the day Tuesday and it’s out of here by early Wednesday.  It’s basically a rainer for everyone with 1-2”.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

I knew I wasn't crazy the top analog for this storm is feb 6 2010.

huh ? That was a blizzard and was suppressed

February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard - Wikipedia

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Tatamy said:

18z GFS is quite progressive with the following event moving in during the day Tuesday and it’s out of here by early Wednesday.  It’s basically a rainer for everyone with 1-2”.

Yeah they're like 48 hours apart

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

There could always be a sneaky warm layer and change to sleet over lehigh/central nj

Yeah that’s already been appearing on some of the model runs.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Yeah that’s already been appearing on some of the model runs.

Yeah 850s are plenty cold but seems like our problem is usually around 700. I know it's way too early to be worrying about those aspects