Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Yea, this looks a lot more like a latitude capped storm—>occlusion and then slide ENE. 
 

The 12z CMC does not make any sense; 12z GFS much closer to the actual evolution imo.

But the ICON came North - - the ENSEMBLES of these models and the 12Z Euro and ENSEMBLES might make this more clearer - I think the only solution off the table right now is the soaking rainstorm scenario

[jbenedet]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

But the ICON came North - - the ENSEMBLES of these models and the 12Z Euro and ENSEMBLES might make this more clearer - I think the only solution off the table right now is the soaking rainstorm scenario

I don’t look at the ICON, personally.

i referenced the CMC only to see the “what if” such a scenario played out; albeit highly unlikely.

I think the main takeaway is the significant snow totals look confined to a one region area, regardless of the evolution. It’s a fragile setup.

[kat5hurricane]

I'd take suppression at this range over inland runner ten times out of ten. Most of our great storms of the past at the coast in particular trending north at the last minute. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

I'd take suppression at this range over inland runner ten times out of ten. Most of our great storms of the past at the coast in particular trending north at the last minute. 

Generally yes. Once the models settle on a rainy solution inside 5 days they don't seem to budge. But suppression is a risk too and could very well end up a southern mid Atlantic special 

[wdrag]

fwiw...new 12z WPC qpf... similar to previous for Sunday.  I do see all the discussion on suppression so will wait this out.  Ensembles I think are best for now with the caution that the suppressed solution could win out. New D6 winter wx not available for a while.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

fwiw...new 12z WPC qpf... similar to previous for Sunday.  I do see all the discussion on suppression so will wait this out.  Ensembles I think are best for now with the caution that the suppressed solution could win out. New D6 winter wx not available for a while.

did they make this map before or after viewing the 12Z models ? regardless they apparently are discounting the suppressed solutions

 

[Stormlover74]

Ukie is in the warm/cmc camp

[Stormlover74]

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new Graph Cast at 0z which has been beating the GFS and Euro thinks the risk is the low tracking too close to us like the CMC rather than suppressed. We don’t have a large enough database yet of East Coast winter storm tracks from the ML models yet to know whether the too warm and tucked in or suppressed risk will win out. 

 

 

 

 

So you don’t think there is any chance this works out for NyC? It’s either north/rain or south and missed? 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

So you don’t think there is any chance this works out for NyC? It’s either north/rain or south and missed? 

I feel like if suppression and inland runner are on the table then the in between all snow scenario must be as well. Even if only a 1 in 5 chance

[NittanyWx]

21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

But the ICON came North - - the ENSEMBLES of these models and the 12Z Euro and ENSEMBLES might make this more clearer - I think the only solution off the table right now is the soaking rainstorm scenario

I dont think a soaking rainstorm in the region is off the table completely either, but I think it's little less likely than suppression today.

 

You've got a path to pretty much every solution at this stage.  

[jbenedet]

GEFS is south.

 

Bigger point is the way the surface high becomes one extended all the way to Bermuda. That’s a “too warm” problem for all densely populated locations along the coast. West is best.

[NittanyWx]

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I don’t look at the ICON, personally.

i referenced the CMC only to see the “what if” such a scenario played out; albeit highly unlikely.

I think the main takeaway is the significant snow totals look confined to a one region area, regardless of the evolution. It’s a fragile setup.

I use the ICON inside 120 hours.  It's a viable, usable model.  

[EastonSN+]

This goes to show how much has to go right for an all snow event in the tri state region, and was mostly the case 1970 through 1999.

Ukmet and CMC warm and rainy.

GFS and Icon cool and snowy.

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

So you don’t think there is any chance this works out for NyC? It’s either north/rain or south and missed? 

We would probably need a perfect thread the needle of the storm being not too amped but not too suppressed. Traditionally over amped or suppression have been the two risks with deep trough in the West. Either the trough in the West pumps the ridge near us too much or a low is too close behind this one and it leads to suppression. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This goes to show how much has to go right for an all snow event in the tri state region, and was mostly the case 1970 through 1999.

Ukmet and CMC warm and rainy.

GFS and Icon cool and snowy.

 

Gfs is snowy mostly south of the M/D line

[Tatamy]

GEFS mean is a nice look for the area.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is snowy mostly south of the M/D line

Yup, but a lot of spread on the GEFS. In the New England forum they posted the individual members with 3 camps. Suppression, perfect and huggers.

[BoulderWX]

Take a model run series off and come back to exactly your prediction. Supression depression. 
 

I know we’re a week off but overwhelming guidance shows a souther slidern. Some seas will see flakes but this is definitely not a snow storms lol for NY metro 

[EastonSN+]

Borrowed from the NE forum. See the three camps. All on the table.

[MJO812]

Geps 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Take a model run series off and come back to exactly your prediction. Supression depression. 
 

I know we’re a week off but overwhelming guidance shows a souther slidern. Some seas will see flakes but this is definitely not a snow storms lol for NY metro 

I disagree. Gfs is only model super suppressed and it's only been 1 run after 6 straight good runs. Warm rainy scenario still on table. Thursday we'll have a better idea and Saturday we might know for sure

[Dark Star]

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

GEFS is south.

 

Bigger point is the way the surface high becomes one extended all the way to Bermuda. That’s a “too warm” problem for all densely populated locations along the coast. West is best.

Good point to consider.  Despite inaccuracy in all the models 6-7 days out, there are "clues" available that can aid in making a "highly probable" forecast even at this time.  However, I defer to the active meteorologists on this site to make those predictions...

[MJO812]

Ukie has a good track but its warm 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ukie has a good track but its warm 

Crushes everyone 50 miles west of the cities

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Borrowed from the NE forum. See the three camps. All on the table.

Seems like we have 5 scenarios. Suppressed nothing, suppressed few inches. All rain. Few inches then flip to rain.  Big hit. 

[NEG NAO]

If anyone wants to too take a stroll down memory lane - check out all the confusion 2 days before the 2010 BOXING Day event - people are even discussing individual model initialization errors - maybe we should start doing that again

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like we have 5 scenarios. Suppressed nothing, suppressed few inches. All rain. Few inches then flip to rain.  Big hit. 

Yeah if you want to get more granular. I wanted to show that sometimes it's better to look at the individual members than just the mean. One thing to look at are the dwindling number of lows over Ohio which is down to one. That is a good step. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

If anyone wants to too take a stroll down memory lane - check out all the confusion 2 days before the 2010 BOXING Day event - people are even discussing individual model initialization errors - maybe we should start doing that again

 

We certainly got lucky with that one

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah if you want to get more granular. I wanted to show that sometimes it's better to look at the individual members than just the mean. One thing to look at are the dwindling number of lows over Ohio which is down to one. That is a good step. 

And who knows what the euro will do in an hour