Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[wdrag]

The above hopefully encapsulates the likelihood of two upcoming significant east coast storms. Changes will occur from the some of the attached supporting graphics but we're in line for more significant weather and I'm sort of concerned about flood potential. This time maybe wet snowfall NYC.? Please consider limiting NYC snow enthusiasm with the stats attached from Don, at least until we get Jan 4-5 (if snow is still in the possibilities).  It is hoped the Bluewave produced lack of 2" snowfall at CP can be put to bed, but it's possible that next Sundays probable wintry event will shift a little more inland with rain dominating along the coast.  The event for the 10th could be brief snow or ice to heavy rain and snow melt, presuming we accumulate anywhere close to the attached 00z/31 EPS prob of 4" axis.  

Wind damage graphic via the EPS for the 10th... expectations are more of an e-ne wind (nor'easter we hope) for the 7th with gust potential 40-50 MPH along the coast and maybe minor coastal flooding (tide cycles are LOW for this storm).  The event around the 10th "may" have stronger winds gusts vicinity 60MPH along the coast and a better chance of coastal flooding (tide cycles 10" higher to start).  Power outages possible but impossible to predict without 24 hour confidence on wind gusts/qpf amounts/ptype/temp if and when it snows. 

This thread was started since I think there is general interest in snow, also flood potential for this weather interested forum. I may comment once/day but it's all yours. OBS for the 6th-7th will go in here.  For whatever occurs the 10th...may have to separate out the OBS in a supplemental thread late 9th, but that's 10 days away and at least a portion of these ensemble expectations may be less than out looked through the 00z/31 cycle and therefore less impact and more routine.

No guarantees here but definitely worth monitoring. 

 

Edited title 1156AM-Jan 6 to include obs and tags added obs and sleet. 

Edited title 645 AM Jan 8 iso include OBS for Jan 9-10 and removed the ? behind damaging wind. 

[mannynyc]

Here's the 12Z GEFS for January 7th.

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro more frozen then 0Z long ways to go and too close to accurately call

[Stormlover74]

Good to see the euro trend colder at least

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Good to see the euro trend colder at least

High is stronger. Keep that trend and it will be a good front end 

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

High is stronger. Keep that trend and it will be a good front end 

Agree. The risk with the 7th is inland runner, not OTS/south IMO, risk with the 10th, way far out there though, is cutter then where does it redevelop (if it does) 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. The risk with the 7th is inland runner, not OTS/south IMO, risk with the 10th, way far out there though, is cutter then where does it redevelop (if it does) 

Agreed. Could be very snow for Chicago-cle-bgm-orh. 
 

we will be sloppy but not be all rain if those highs are for real 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Agreed. Could be very snow for Chicago-cle-bgm-orh. 
 

we will be sloppy but not be all rain if those highs are for real 

Because of the PNA ? 

[wdrag]

Modeling: It's getting better if we can talk generalities a week in advance and be reasonably accurate.  Still... two big storms within 3-4 days... not common around here, especially if snow. My caution is stick with ensembles.  AND... please if you can... don't use 10-1 snowfall unless we're within 48 hours and you think it ill be all snow.  We're better off using conservative numbers for our area (positive snow depth c change via Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal()...especially since so close to the r/s line.  Warm thickness for the first storm has me worried about a narrow band of 6+ inch 32-33F wet snow - clinging to wires with power outages inland of I95 somewhere. just dont know where, if at all in our subforum. SST's are near normal today but warming along the coast from Wallops to Boston. 

So... it's at least a temporary enthusiastic opportunity, especially our I84 folks and maybe we can get some snow in the city. 

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. The risk with the 7th is inland runner, not OTS/south IMO, risk with the 10th, way far out there though, is cutter then where does it redevelop (if it does) 

Yup agree

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Because of the PNA ? 

Unless we get some ridging in that area it will be hard to stay all snow. 

[wdrag]

Caution to the wind: 12z GEFS/CMCE decreased qpf for the first event... less snow and the concern about a little less QPF event 1

The EPS on the other hand (I dont worship it)... has come up quite a bit.A ppended 12z/31 24 hour prob 4" of snow (10 to 1 ratio)... pretty large prob but not 100%.   Just have to live a good life til whatever happens.

[hudsonvalley21]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Modeling: It's getting better if we can talk generalities a week in advance and be reasonably accurate.  Still... two big storms within 3-4 days... not common around here, especially if snow. My caution is stick with ensembles.  AND... please if you can... don't use 10-1 snowfall unless we're within 48 hours and you think it ill be all snow.  We're better off using conservative numbers for our area (positive snow depth c change via Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal()...especially since so close to the r/s line.  Warm thickness for the first storm has me worried about a narrow band of 6+ inch 32-33F wet snow - clinging to wires with power outages inland of I95 somewhere. just dont know where, if at all in our subforum. SST's are near normal today but warming along the coast from Wallops to Boston. 

So... it's at least a temporary enthusiastic opportunity, especially our I84 folks and maybe we can get some snow in the city. 

Thanks Walt, and as you mentioned earlier, the QPF amounts are also critical with the flooding potential.

[mannynyc]

Euro with some inland concerns. Definitely not as good of a look.

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, mannynyc said:

Euro with some inland concerns. Definitely not as good of a look.

7 days out. 

[Allsnow]

Gfs is stronger and further west with the first system. Would think that helps for a colder scenario with second system 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs is stronger and further west with the first system. Would think that helps for a colder scenario with second system 

Definitely not as amped as 12z. Going to be a colder run 

[NittanyWx]

I would much prefer an overrunning scenario vs a coastal for more frozen precipitation locally in this scenario.  That said, this can work under the right sense of synoptic circumstances. 

 

Looking to amp just enough via a combination of a deepening low (but not too deep) and just enough ridging out west to not overwhelm a marginal Canadian HP and not be suppressed.

 

It's doable, but it still requires a few things to go right. 

 

The 10th in my view is unlikely to deliver frozen precipitation for most.  I believe the EC Ens this afternoon will likely end up too cold with that.

[NEG NAO]

[Allsnow]

[NEG NAO]

[WestBabylonWeather]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Been awhile since I’ve seen such a beautiful image. 

[cleetussnow]

Nice GFS run.  Likely to change and there will be a lot of different looks this week run to run.  We may not know many specifics until inside 48.  

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Unless we get some ridging in that area it will be hard to stay all snow. 

Unless maybe that trough can be progressive and act as a kicker, or we get a much stronger 50-50 that can force the redevelopment south. Otherwise it’ll drive the storm up the coast or just inland and like you said, maybe we can luck out with 3-5” at the front and some can survive after the change to rain. Nothing worse to me than the change to rain and nothing’s left at the end. Might as well have never happened. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Unless maybe that trough can be progressive and act as a kicker, or we get a much stronger 50-50 that can force the redevelopment south. Otherwise it’ll drive the storm up the coast or just inland and like you said, maybe we can luck out with 3-5” at the front and some can survive after the change to rain. Nothing worse to me than the change to rain and nothing’s left at the end. Might as well have never happened. 

Yup. Give me rain to snow all day. 

[BoulderWX]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Some decent runs today from the GFS. Honestly would have taken any of them, but this one would make up for a lot a of disappointment the past two years. 
 

still putting chances of over 3” snowfall at 15% this far out but I’ll take the potential as something to track 

[steve392]

Figures the first potential for accumulating snow is 2 days after my shoulder surgery and I can't go out to clear it or have fun in it.  :/

[mannynyc]

18Z GEFS members

[SRRTA22]

The lack of snowman19 weenie emotes is telling. We getting slammed 

[MJO812]

Icon up first