Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: My niece just moved to Billings MO! She’s a traveling Dr. occupational therapist Billings, Montana? GREAT town. We just about took a job there. So many great things about Billings. So many great places to eat breakfast, a new library, the rims, Red Lodge is close as is Cody and Bozeman. There is reasonably good access to YNP, and fishing opportunities are almost endless. The north end of the Absarokas is a sneaky good place to vacate. The Paradise Valley around Livingston is also great. If I lived there, I would post maybe 1x per month about weather....I would be fishing the rest of the time!!! LOL. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 18z GFS is like.... 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1051 hp on the 18z GFS. IF(stress) we begin to see those on modeling consistently, that is a great sign. All of the cold air on model runs today explains why ensembles are jumping around....I DOUBT they are done bouncing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 18z GFS would freeze rivers in NE TN. 1053 HP now on that run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I don't think I want any part of the 18z GFS. . 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 18z GFS says that everyone east of the Rockies better get their plumber on speed dial. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS says that everyone east of the Rockies better get their plumber on speed dial. You know if what we discussed yesterday does pan out, man should be some big snows crop with that as well. Even if MJO warm phases do commence, super strong blocking should mitigate or override it as was the case during some great wall to wall Winter's, ie 77-78 . That January featured nonstop cold in the Eastern US as the MJO toured the warm phases. I'm thinking the following Winter did as well either in January or February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 57 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: You know if what we discussed yesterday does pan out, man should be some big snows crop with that as well. Even if MJO warm phases do commence, super strong blocking should mitigate or override it as was the case during some great wall to wall Winter's, ie 77-78 . That January featured nonstop cold in the Eastern US as the MJO toured the warm phases. I'm thinking the following Winter did as well either in January or February. The NAO that is projected to fire is massive.....we may not necessarily want a big ridge out West. It might snow in Cuba if there was a double block. But looking at the Euro control. We fight off the MJO w/ the NAO, and then the Pac kicks into gear in February. We have seen these looks on models many times for our area...been a while since it has materialized. But....the signal is on modeling right now for a significant cold outbreak from Jan15 to the end of Feb in multiple waves. It fits climatology. The MJO is the thorn, and I look over my shoulder like a TN coach leading at halftime in Tuscaloosa. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 CPC analogs d6-10: 19590102 19630111 19960129 19850129 19781227 19811227 19820105 19680105 19731230 19620114 d8-14 19800126 19681229 19700104 19781229 19590102 19680108 19690110 19940107 19960130 19590117 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: CPC analogs d6-10: 19590102 19630111 19960129 19850129 19781227 19811227 19820105 19680105 19731230 19620114 d8-14 19800126 19681229 19700104 19781229 19590102 19680108 19690110 19940107 19960130 19590117 Just 1 dud in the whole package. 12-30-73 one. It was a Nina Winter however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Billings, Montana? GREAT town. We just about took a job there. So many great things about Billings. So many great places to eat breakfast, a new library, the rims, Red Lodge is close as is Cody and Bozeman. There is reasonably good access to YNP, and fishing opportunities are almost endless. The north end of the Absarokas is a sneaky good place to vacate. The Paradise Valley around Livingston is also great. If I lived there, I would post maybe 1x per month about weather....I would be fishing the rest of the time!!! LOL. Thanks for the suggestions. We plan to head out there in the spring. Her place will be our place of stay while we visit the area. We have never been to Yellowstone. Looking forward to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS would freeze rivers in NE TN. 1053 HP now on that run. Honestly I feel one day we will have that type of temps. again here. Like China is having now. If wx cycles are truly real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS says that everyone east of the Rockies better get their plumber on speed dial. Lots of different opinions on what really happens with this cold. A few say goes west. A few say suppression city for here. I will take the some moisture with freezing temps nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: CPC analogs d6-10: 19590102 19630111 19960129 19850129 19781227 19811227 19820105 19680105 19731230 19620114 d8-14 19800126 19681229 19700104 19781229 19590102 19680108 19690110 19940107 19960130 19590117 Another nice selection of dates before I was born. 16/20. Winters of Yore. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Anyone concerned with all of these cutters acting like a roadblock?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: Anyone concerned with all of these cutters acting like a roadblock? . Yea, modeling seems like it is on a replay loop; all of the systems are cutting no matter how much cold air comes down, pretty typical year so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Cutters? I think that is a response to a temporary southeast ridge and/or standing wave. We haven't had many cutters at all this season as evidenced by the rainfall deficits in middle and western forum areas. The main storm track is the low road at the moment...and that will likely change for the medium range. There are places in the West and Plains with no snow on the ground at all. That said, the MJO influence on future weather is real. Probably the better question IMO is why things are cutting in the medium range? It is the influence of the MJO in my opinion The timeframe from Jan11-14 has almost universally supposed to have been warm. Really, Jan11-25 was supposed to be warm until modeling slipped a cold shot in round Jan15-18ish. MJO 4-6 will by default put the trough in the West unless the NAO can counter it which it might well do. Cosgrove has an interesting article this morning on storms which cut. Basically, with so much projected cold air in place in Canada(remember, our source regions are changing to extremely cold)....that cutter could pull down the mother load which personally I don't want! LOL. Honestly, middle and western areas of our forum need some rain, so cutters are good with me. The main worry w/ the MJO is a stall in phase 6 later this month....if that happens, winter is up for many. But that is still a ways out there, and I think it unlikely. The good thing about cutters is they are going to put down lots of snow to our northwest in the Plains. Of note, TRI is below normal for temps so far for the month of January. That is no surprise. As long as the MJO doesn't stall in 6(and it could), it will likely rotate into colder phases during the last week of January. The cold that we have now is a result of an MJO rotation though colder phases. The difference next time is that the source regions for the cold likely won't be Pacific maritime air. The signal for winter has generally been the second half of winter. We just need the MJO to rotate quickly through warm phases and then out.... Until then, there is cold on the map. And as a reminder, modeling is going to be all over the place. Of note, the MJO doesn't have to be warm during 4-5-6....that is not a set-in-stone rule. Something to watch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Does anyone have the PDO number for December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And I should add that cold air still lurks after the Jan11-14 warm-up. The duration and intensity of that cold shot are still TBD, but it should feel like winter at the very least. With an active STJ(subtropical jet), it is highly unlikely that we know how those systems will interact with the cold. It does look like there be another warm-up(likely due to the MJO in 5-6) between say Jan 19-28th). Then it gets cold again. But, again, we need to see how the NAO sets up around the 11th. Until it is in place, modeling accuracy very likely is going to suffer. Modeling is renown for not handling NAO patterns well. Add in the crappy Pacific pattern on the horizon....balancing the two will be tough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And welcome to El Nino......this is pretty much how it works. Cold, dreary, rainy, cloudy...then some a brief warm-up....then colder, drearier, rainer, cloudier....wash, rinse, repeat. The active storm track is our ally with this pattern. Model mayhem is well under way. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Cutters? I think that is a response to a temporary southeast ridge and/or standing wave. We haven't had many cutters at all this season as evidenced by the rainfall deficits in middle and western forum areas. The main storm track is the low road at the moment...and that will likely change for the medium range. There are places in the West and Plains with no snow on the ground at all. That said, the MJO influence on future weather is real. Probably the better question IMO is why things are cutting in the medium range? It is the influence of the MJO in my opinion The timeframe from Jan11-14 has almost universally supposed to have been warm. Really, Jan11-25 was supposed to be warm until modeling slipped a cold shot in round Jan15-18ish. MJO 4-6 will by default put the trough in the West unless the NAO can counter it which it might well do. Cosgrove has an interesting article this morning on storms which cut. Basically, with so much projected cold air in place in Canada(remember, our source regions are changing to extremely cold)....that cutter could pull down the mother load which personally I don't want! LOL. Honestly, middle and western areas of our forum need some rain, so cutters are good with me. The main worry w/ the MJO is a stall in phase 6 later this month....if that happens, winter is up for many. But that is still a ways out there, and I think it unlikely. The good thing about cutters is they are going to put down lots of snow to our northwest in the Plains. Of note, TRI is below normal for temps so far for the month of January. That is no surprise. As long as the MJO doesn't stall in 6(and it could), it will likely rotate into colder phases during the last week of January. The cold that we have now is a result of an MJO rotation though colder phases. The difference next time is that the source regions for the cold likely won't be Pacific maritime air. The signal for winter has generally been the second half of winter. We just need the MJO to rotate quickly through warm phases and then out.... Until then, there is cold on the map. And as a reminder, modeling is going to be all over the place. Of note, the MJO doesn't have to be warm during 4-5-6....that is not a set-in-stone rule. Something to watch. Even here in middle TN we are averaging normal to slightly below normal for the temps dept. I read this could be the first January in quite some time for this area to have a normal to below normal January. I think that’s pretty impressive for a supposed to be warm January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Even here in middle TN we are averaging normal to slightly below normal for the temps dept. I read this could be the first January in quite some time for this area to have a normal to below normal January. I think that’s pretty impressive for a supposed to be warm January. Looks like we may have a chance at the end of the noon run of the GFS but we all know how fantasy land GFS is 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: Looks like we may have a chance at the end of the noon run of the GFS but we all know how fantasy land GFS is Yeah really. Look how bad it looks before that. As mentioned couple days ago , you don't want a deep arctic airmass dive down the west coast. The PAC is killing us once again. Those warm WPAC and IO SST'S are the Root. Even the MJO hanging in the warm phases correlate. If only that Arctic Outbreak would drop down the Rockies and Plains. Whole different outcome then. As is, the more that dives down Californica to Baja, the greater the odds of what happened last year with the -NAO/SER hookup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Both the 12z GFS and CMC have decent looks on them. Need to reel those in, but not a terrible progression. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Does anyone have the PDO number for December? "Not good" is my unscientific reading of the PDO. link: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And again, the Jan 11-14 time frame has been lit as a warm week. And again, really the Jan 11-25 timeframe has always been pretty warm looking....having a cold shot in the middle of MJO warm phases is pretty much a bonus. The MJO "should" be prime by the end of January again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: "Not good" is my unscientific reading of the PDO. link: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ it is a pain in the neck. I can at least say that I wasn't alive for 114 of those years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The main bust(speaking of the long wave pattern) by ext LR modeling this winter was being off by one week with the cool down during December. Otherwise, it has been pretty decent. And it looks decent for late Jan and Feb. I am not ruling out mischief well before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And speaking of LR modeling..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Precip is normal to above for that time frame w/ the exception of far NW TN for Jan. That means a likely active STJ w/ seasonal temps at our best time of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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