January Medium-Long Range Discussion

[John1122]

They both look icy for other parts of the eastern areas. 

[John1122]

The GFS and Canadian join their hi-res cousins with rate driven snow over the Northern Plateau and ice over more areas. 

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, I am not ready to write this storm off yet.  The GFS and CMC at 0z, though thermally a wreck, have decent low placement.  I they can somewhat re-intensify the storm in that spot....could be good.  

They are super close right now....as in southwest Virginia is in the game right now.

[Carvers Gap]

Just digging through the 0z GFS/GEFS and CMC, I think higher elevations (especially higher elevations like John's local) and maybe even valley locations might be back in the game.  

[John1122]

The UKIE is back in for now with snow fall in the Northern Plateau/SE Ky area/SW Va areas too. 

Hopefully this trends back towards what the Euro/UKIE were a few days ago with a widespread event. 

[PowellVolz]

I’ve had a lot of personal stuff going on and haven’t been able to follow much….. is the cold that’s coming keep getting pushed back a day at a time? Looks like the middle of Jan we could be in business?


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

35 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I’ve had a lot of personal stuff going on and haven’t been able to follow much….. is the cold that’s coming keep getting pushed back a day at a time? Looks like the middle of Jan we could be in business?


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TBH to me the overnight runs look kind of ugly to me toward mid month.  I think they’re probably seeing the MJO aiming at the dreaded 4/5/6 phases. There definitely would be some cold in North America but it would tend to drop west before east. Very Ninaesque pattern as some Mets in the New England forum were suggesting yesterday. Since we are in a pretty Nino pattern and it looks like there is going to be some good blocking models could be rushing the new look, but like others have said once we get into 4/5/6 we probably get a couple of weeks of a much more unfavorable pattern. They’re models though so it could all flip on a dime once we get closer. To be fair models have handled even the energy with this weekend storm VERY poorly. 

[Met1985]

34 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

TBH to me the overnight runs look kind of ugly to me toward mid month.  I think they’re probably seeing the MJO aiming at the dreaded 4/5/6 phases. There definitely would be some cold in North America but it would tend to drop west before east. Very Ninaesque pattern as some Mets in the New England forum were suggesting yesterday. Since we are in a pretty Nino pattern and it looks like there is going to be some good blocking models could be rushing the new look, but like others have said once we get into 4/5/6 we probably get a couple of weeks of a much more unfavorable pattern. They’re models though so it could all flip on a dime once we get closer. To be fair models have handled even the energy with this weekend storm VERY poorly. 

Holston great input. The models have handled energy and the strength pretty poorly in my opinion.  Our so called torch in December really never materialized in my opinion.  Sure we could see the SER rear it's head but I think the models are having a tough time currently.  Even the ensembles are flip flopping. Cold one day and warm the next...

[tnweathernut]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Holston great input. The models have handled energy and the strength pretty poorly in my opinion.  Our so called torch in December really never materialized in my opinion.  Sure we could see the SER rear it's head but I think the models are having a tough time currently.  Even the ensembles are flip flopping. Cold one day and warm the next...

The torch didn't materialize, but neither has a legit snow opportunity.  I think it's a pretty good bet the MJO makes it to "unfavorable".  This will have us hoping for a perfectly placed block to help save the day for some in the TN Valley Region.  Talk about threading the needle. 

I'm usually optimistic, but I have reached an age where front side ice to rain and backside rain to snow shower chances no longer move the needle.  Lots of moving parts, and it's still pretty early in the winter so gives reasons to remain grounded. 

I think my biggest gripe is (and maybe it's just a false perception) modeling being no better than a roll of the dice today vs 10 years ago.  We used to know the tendencies of each model and could apply that knowledge in productive way.  Now it seems modeling either against old known tendencies or worse, all over the place.  I know we all stare at every model run, but I have zero faith in modeling - even as close as 3-5 days out.  Maybe it's just me and I'm getting old and cranky........ lol

[Carvers Gap]

I could easily be wrong(and have been before), but medium and LR modeling looks about the same as yesterday...if not just a bit better.  I think we will see waves of cold push eastward with intermittent ridges.  How long does that last?  IDK.  The NAO block is stout on most modeling.  I doubt that modeling is handling that Atlantic block well right now - that could be a good thing or a bad thing.  Often times, we don't know the pattern until the block is in place which is around Jan. 11.  In E TN, we don't always have to have the Pacifici(see my winter ideas) which is why El Nino is better here....more confluence.  It has been my experience that El Nino winters don't always produce multiple storms, but a few which are pretty decent.   While the idea of the Pacific needing to be good is an idea that has grown on me, there are winters where the NAO drove the pattern in the East.  That said, the MJO of late has been very difficult to trump.  Cosgrove has also noted that MJO plots may be partially in error, and that satellite obs might be the only accurate way to measure it.  He also noted(and I can barely understand the science)that there is a linkage between the MJO and higher latitudes, that if it doesn't get established, makes the MJO moot.  Either way, I think an actual winter pattern is upon us....and we don't have to wait months at a time.  We can look at each storm for winter precip potential.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks to me like the weekend storm could begin with some snow/ZR mix on the Plateau and border counties w/ Kentucky and Virginia.  The RGEM, at range admittedly, is bullish in that regard.  As Tellico noted, the low near the lakes is a menace in terms of thermal profiles.  But w/ a good track, NE TN/SW VA could still score on the front end depending on the time of day.

Down the line, I think we will have things to track sooner than later from an E TN perspective.  I don't see a region wide event at this point.  The shoe will be on the other foot next winter as La Nina likely takes hold for the fourth time in five years.  

[Carvers Gap]

I also think we are entering a time frame which is going to be highly unpredictable and volatile - Nino winters are known for that.  Go read Grit's overnight post in the MA forum if you haven't already.  Last winter, we could look weeks down the line, and see trouble(meaning now potential for storms).  Right now, this could be a wild ride IMHO for areas east of the Plateau.  Again, next winter switch shoes.

[Carvers Gap]

Timing is slightly different, but both the 12z GEFS/GEPS depict an Arctic air mass d10-15.  IMHO, that cold air mass is our shot.  There will be a warmup before it if 3-5 days where the NAO hooks into an eastern ridge, then the cold pushes east.  

[John1122]

The Euro is still trying for various forms of frozen here this weekend. Forecasters seem adamant that nothing will happen in that regard. 

The long range builds a massive snowpack all the way to the Ohio border if nothing else. But it's also dumping snow in the west too, shades of last winter. The peaks around Mammoth are going to get 300+ inches per the GFS, over the next two weeks. 

I did read that the -NAO cold/snow effects were more shunted to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast vs the South/Southeast when the PNA was neutral/negative. (The current +PNA is what is keeping us from being warm now) Unfortunately it's about to go negative and Seattle is likely to turn snowy per some modeling and 10 day forecasts for them. 

When Seattle is snowy, we normally have cutters and 40s/50s in the winter. Though 1968-69 was fairly cold and snowy here and it's the snowiest winter on record in Seattle. It was the 60s though and it just snowed constantly in the 1960s and 1970s here. So I'm not sure it would apply here. 

I will add that 1968-69 was cool in January with a snow event but didn't turn super snowy until February when nearly 20 inches fell. 

[Carvers Gap]

Jan 1 Cansips is in....seasonal to BN for all of January.

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jan 1 Cansips is in....seasonal to BN for all of January.

Unfortunately, it appears it’s just gonna be low 40s with some cold rains.  We need the rain, but I can do without the cold rain.  Well in 10 weeks it’ll be mid March knocking on spring.

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Unfortunately, it appears it’s just gonna be low 40s with some cold rains.  We need the rain, but I can do without the cold rain.  Well in 10 weeks it’ll be mid March knocking on spring.

I would strongly urge not to swing each day with the models.  They are all over the place right now, even ensembles.  With the exception of Jan11-14, most modeling looks very cold for this time of year.   There is potential for a really strong cold shot mid-month.  Again, I am not bullish for your area for winter...next winter, yes.  This winter, no.  But anything can happen with a strong Atlantic block.  But I can say this, it is better than wall to wall AN temps on modeling for endless days.

[Carvers Gap]

I should add that the old rule of thumb when ensembles begin bouncing around....there is very cold air about to enter the pattern.   I think that occurs between Jan14-20th potentially - not a lock at this range.

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I would strongly urge not to swing each day with the models.  They are all over the place right now, even ensembles.  With the exception of Jan11-14, most modeling looks very cold for this time of year.   There is potential for a really strong cold shot mid-month.  Again, I am not bullish for your area for winter...next winter, yes.  This winter, no.  But anything can happen with a strong Atlantic block.  But I can say this, it is better than wall to wall AN temps on modeling for endless days.

Excellent post Carver. I just made a post over in our mountain thread that even the ensembles we're changing a lot run to run. 

[John1122]

After looking at it a bit, it looks like the EPO has been driving things to a large extent here. The few actual cool downs we've managed this late fall/early winter have coincided with it going negative. Often it will lock in negative when it does and truly bring severe winter conditions to the east. However, this year it's been very transient with 4 or 5 days in the negative and we follow with several days BN, then it rebounds to positive and we warm back up. A -EPO will overwhelm a -PNA and flood cold air this way. I seem to recall 2015 the PNA was negative in late Feb but the EPO was also deeply negative and we were 15-20 degrees bn with a lot of snow and ice as the EPO overwhelmed the PNA.

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

After looking at it a bit, it looks like the EPO has been driving things to a large extent here. The few actual cool downs we've managed this late fall/early winter have coincided with it going negative. Often it will lock in negative when it does and truly bring severe winter conditions to the east. However, this year it's been very transient with 4 or 5 days in the negative and we follow with several days BN, then it rebounds to positive and we warm back up. A -EPO will overwhelm a -PNA and flood cold air this way. I seem to recall 2015 the PNA was negative in late Feb but the EPO was also deeply negative and we were 15-20 degrees bn with a lot of snow and ice as the EPO overwhelmed the PNA.

Exactly what's been going on. Bluewave posted recently in the regular Forum regarding that and his thoughts behind it. The Western Pac Warm pool is what he said and actually gave a pretty convincing reasoning. Many, Pros and Enthusiasts alike gave their argument in how the Nino should overcome that. Apparently, it hasn't. It probably is trying thus the occasional -EPO. 

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly what's been going on. Bluewave posted recently in the regular Forum regarding that and his thoughts behind it. The Western Pac Warm pool is what he said and actually gave a pretty convincing reasoning. Many, Pros and Enthusiasts alike gave their argument in how the Nino should overcome that. Apparently, it hasn't. It probably is trying thus the occasional -EPO. 

Plus, the negative NAO isn’t due to fire untold Jan 11ish.  I don’t think we will know the outcome of the pattern after that until it is in place.  Models have been poor predicting NAOs traditionally.  Does it hook and hold into the eastern ridge or does it force BN heights to its south which it should?  I think we get a really good pattern.
 

I think the MJO is driving the bus for the next ten days and has been for that last 40-50 days.  We see the consequences of the MJO as an EPO or PNA (or lack of)or the retracted jet(which its opposite probably was a driver earlier).  Temps mirror the MJO right now very closely, and have been.

[Daniel Boone]

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Plus, the negative NAO isn’t due to fire untold Jan 11ish.  I don’t think we will know the outcome of the pattern after that until it is in place.  Models have been poor predicting NAOs traditionally.  Does it hook and hold into the eastern ridge or does it force BN heights to its south which it should?  I think we get a really good pattern.
 

I think the MJO is driving the bus for the next ten days and has been for that last 40-50 days.  We see the consequences of the MJO as an EPO or PNA (or lack of)or the retracted jet(which its opposite probably was a driver earlier).  Temps mirror the MJO right now very closely, and have been.

Yeah, I agree if we get that bridge we should be in business. I think the MJO is definitely involved with the pattern but, think it's having some substitute relieving it some. That Nina Ridge trying to establish into the Aleutians occasionally is being forced most probably by those SST'S aforementioned at least in Tandem with the warm western Nino SST Area. A typical Nino Aleutian Low , or even an east based GOA LP is being knocked off kilter. 

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, I agree if we get that bridge we should be in business. I think the MJO is definitely involved with the pattern but, think it's having some substitute relieving it some. That Nina Ridge trying to establish into the Aleutians occasionally is being forced most probably by those SST'S aforementioned at least in Tandem with the warm western Nino SST Area. A typical Nino Aleutian Low , or even an east based GOA LP is being knocked off kilter. 

PDO is a sneaky problem.

[Carvers Gap]

32 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, I agree if we get that bridge we should be in business. I think the MJO is definitely involved with the pattern but, think it's having some substitute relieving it some. That Nina Ridge trying to establish into the Aleutians occasionally is being forced most probably by those SST'S aforementioned at least in Tandem with the warm western Nino SST Area. A typical Nino Aleutian Low , or even an east based GOA LP is being knocked off kilter. 

I am good with weak Nina characteristics, and maybe we see some of that as this Nino collapses.  The 18z is bitterly cold at d+10.  That would be a great look.  

Appreciate everyone as always.  Great discussion!

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am good with weak Nina characteristics, and maybe we see some of that as this Nino collapses.  The 18z is bitterly cold at d+10.  That would be a great look.  

Appreciate everyone as always.  Great discussion!

Yeah. That's the thing. It could work better for us with a mix Nina/Nino Pattern. Nina more apt to promote Arctic airmass delivery via Polar Jet and Clipper's as well. Nino SJT along with Blocking. Enhanced possibility of a big Dog imo. If we can get that Arctic airmass down here as shown then , that should be when the real fun begins. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. That's the thing. It could work better for us with a mix Nina/Nino Pattern. Nina more apt to promote Arctic airmass delivery via Polar Jet and Clipper's as well. Nino SJT along with Blocking. Enhanced possibility of a big Dog imo. If we can get that Arctic airmass down here as shown then , that should be when the real fun begins. 

And that is exactly what 18z looked like.  I had a high of 12 on that run for a day.

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And that is exactly what 18z looked like.  I had a high of 12 on that run for a day.

Hopefully, it comes to fruition. Pretty good odds actually . 

[ShawnEastTN]

Also critical to our region usually is having the regions north and northwest with some good snowpack. That hasn't really happened yet but looks like over the next few weeks might finally begin to start building. I have family in the UP of Michigan and they at Christmas had zero snow on the ground which is very very rare for them. Usually by end of December the Superior snowbelt region has a couple feet of snow on the ground already. For Detroit area in lower Michigan it's the second least snowy December ever recorded and among the warmest.

As I sit and type this it is snowing now suddenly at my house, looks like virga is trying to overcome the dry air. Not really snow but graupel.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Also critical to our region usually is having the regions north and northwest with some good snowpack. That hasn't really happened yet but looks like over the next few weeks might finally begin to start building. I have family in the UP of Michigan and they at Christmas had zero snow on the ground which is very very rare for them. Usually by end of December the Superior snowbelt region has a couple feet of snow on the ground already. For Detroit area in lower Michigan it's the second least snowy December ever recorded and among the warmest.

As I sit and type this it is snowing now suddenly at my house, looks like virga is trying to overcome the dry air. Not really snow but graupel.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk


 

Noticed radar returns were enhancing in area's. Graupel can definitely make it through that dry Column more than flakes. Maybe we'll get a surprise dusting tonight.