Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: I was just going off tropical tidbits for that run. Thank you good sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 20 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Thank you good sir. TBH I was being a little bit disingenuous when I said it was the best Miller A so far. The below isn't aimed at you Met1985, but I figured if I want to type a little might as well type a lot. 1) the bar ain't really high so far for this system 2) at the surface it looks gorgeous on the ICON, but the mid levels are a mess. One thing that you see on the ICON and GFS is that there are at leas 2 separate vorts at H5 that interact for this: Watch how the lead (A) runs out in front on the ICON, while the second one digs and tries to consolidate late: You can see that on the 18z GFS too, but the lead vort (A) keeps its act together better, so the thermal profile for we unfortunates in the eastern TN Valley are in trouble: Euro has a slightly different evolution and tries to pull off a late phase: The result is pretty much the same., but it's at least nice to have something semi trackable. Hot off the presses the GEFS mean SLP is popping a surface low over Huntsville, AL, def. not a good sign for this side of the Apps. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The end of the 18z GFS is quite cold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 TBH I was being a little bit disingenuous when I said it was the best Miller A so far. The below isn't aimed at you Met1985, but I figured if I want to type a little might as well type a lot. 1) the bar ain't really high so far for this system 2) at the surface it looks gorgeous on the ICON, but the mid levels are a mess. One thing that you see on the ICON and GFS is that there are at leas 2 separate vorts at H5 that interact for this: Watch how the lead (A) runs out in front on the ICON, while the second one digs and tries to consolidate late: You can see that on the 18z GFS too, but the lead vort (A) keeps its act together better, so the thermal profile for we unfortunates in the eastern TN Valley are in trouble: Euro has a slightly different evolution and tries to pull off a late phase: The result is pretty much the same., but it's at least nice to have something semi trackable. Hot off the presses the GEFS mean SLP is popping a surface low over Huntsville, AL, def. not a good sign for this side of the Apps. I could really get excited about this if that low popped further south . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 33 minutes ago, 1234snow said: The end of the 18z GFS is quite cold. Yeah, it is! I thought it was going to have an overrunning event in northern Florida....did for southern Georgia! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Tagging onto @1234snow, I think we are going to see very cold air enter into the pattern. I would say 60/40 that it goes into the West....but I am not confident that it can't make it to Cuba as well. If that is what is about to occur(extreme cold into the Lower 48), it is going to be model havoc for some time with lots of swings. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just looking at the surface, the CMC is weaker, but it its a clean pass. The GFS was almost a clean pass. The trend so far is to consolidate the slp as Miller A vs a hybrid. Models aren't there yet, but trended that way. Also, for TRI and the Plateau...looks icy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Beautiful pattern now after Jan 10.........block city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Beautiful pattern now after Jan 10.........block city. Hopefully, the forum area can score some snow on the ground before it gets really cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 32 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Hopefully, the forum area can score some snow on the ground before it gets really cold. I still have my doubts today (different thought than yesterday I know) as to how cold it gets, but there is a chance the PV could get trapped w/ the NAO firing and a slightly displace Alaskan block - a double block. There is a slight SER showing up(when is there not?), so I am not sure that suppression will be an issue. Looks like a warm-up from say Jan 8-9, and then cold is replenished. The MJO is very interesting this morning. Some modeling has it looping back into 2......That said, there is potential for severe cold...but Nino patterns tend to find a way to moderate cold air, and that isn't always a bad thing if one likes snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I still have my doubts today (different thought than yesterday I know) as to how cold it gets, but there is a chance the PV could get trapped w/ the NAO firing and a slightly displace Alaskan block - a double block. There is a slight SER showing up(when is there not?), so I am not sure that suppression will be an issue. Looks like a warm-up from say Jan 8-9, and then cold is replenished. The MJO is very interesting this morning. Some modeling has it looping back into 2......That said, there is potential for severe cold...but Nino patterns tend to find a way to moderate cold air, and that isn't always a bad thing if one likes snow. Right, if it is real cold, things get shunted south of the forum area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 22 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Right, if it is real cold, things get shunted south of the forum area Where the NAO block is placed matters bigly. The GEFS is on an island as it places the block slightly further eastward. The EPS and GEPS are right over Greenland. On the Alaskan side, we really don't want the ridge over the Aleutians. It can work provided the NAO is in the right place....but it leaves less room for error. Both the GEPS/EPS have some iteration of an EPO ridge. That kicks the cold into the nation's mid-section. The GEFS likely has more cutters as the SER is visibly present. The GEPS/EPS are probably more sliders. Phasing w/ the GEPS/EPS would occur to our south and southeast. All of that said, a blend of the three models would provide a decent winter wx pattern. I should note that these are 7 day snapshots and not one day. I think we will see some variability in reality versus a locked-in pattern. Cold descending into the Plains and racing eastward is the pattern of my youth. We get that w/ the GEPS/EPS combo. The GEFS is more of what has occurred during the past decade. So which model has been more accurate w/ the MJO? I don't know. They have all been pretty bad. American modeling wants to take the warm tour Here are some MJO plots. In general, the plots where it stalls in 2/3 (or loops)...the better the pattern. The plots where it goes high amplitude into 4-6, the worse the pattern. I tend to gravitate to whichever pattern is worse... But that likely is just a hangover from Nina winters on my part. Truly, the MJO "should" move quickly through 4-6 or resist going there at all. There should be enough precip in the regions of 8-1-2 (dateline south Hawaii and off the eastern coast of Africa), that it should counter anything firing over Indonesia. That said, you can see a fairly good connection between the panels above and the ones posted just below. I have said it before and will say it again, we are going to need an NAO block to get through the second half of January. So far, it looks promising. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Where the NAO block is place matters bigly. The GEFS is on an island as it places the block slightly further eastward. The EPS and GEPS are right over Greenland. On the Alaskan side, we really don't want the ridge over the Aleutians. It can work provide the NAO is in the right place....but it leaves less room for error. Both the GEPS/EPS have some iteration of an EPO ridge. That kicks the cold into the nation's mid-section. The GEFS likely has more cutters as the SER is visibly present. The GEPS/EPS is probably more sliders. Phasing w/ the GEPS/EPS would occur to our south and southeast. All of that said, a blend of the three models would provide a decent winter wx pattern. I should not that these are 7 day snapshots and not one day. I think we will see some variability in reality versus a locked-in pattern. Cold descending into the Plains and racing eastward is the pattern of my youth. We get that w/ the GEPS/EPS combo. The GEFS is more of what has occurred during the past decade. So which model has been more accurate w/ the MJO? I don't know. They have all been pretty bad. American modeling wants to take the warm tour Here are some MJO plots. In general, the plots where it stalls in 2/3 (or loops)...the better the pattern. The plots where it goes high amplitude into 4-6, the worse the pattern. I tend to gravitate to whichever pattern is worse...that will verify. But that likely is just a hangover from Nina winters. Truly, the MJO "should" move quickly through 4-6 or resist going there at all. There should be enough precip in the regions of 8-1-2 (dateline south Hawaii and off the eastern coast of Africa), that it should counter anything firing over Indonesia. That said, you can see a fairly good connection between the panels above and the ones posted just below. I have said it before and will say it again, we are going to need an NAO block to get through the second half of January. So far, it looks promising. Either way, as has been stated before, at least we have something to watch this season, thanks for your synopsis, it helps with office talk lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Either way, as has been stated before, at least we have something to watch this season, thanks for your synopsis, it helps with office talk lol LOL. Yeah, I do think we have more to track right now than last year's barren landscape(after we moved through the New Year 2022). I still hold out some minor hope that this weekend's system trends southeast enough for somebody in the forum are to score. West Virginia looks like the big winner for now, and also Pennsylvania. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The PAC NW is supposed to get 7-10 inches of rain and 60-80 inches of snow over the next 16 days. When you see that there, we're rarely going to be getting much in the way of winter weather, as it means a very hostile pacific. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Some changes to the 18z GFS re: this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Temp profiles are still not the best but the 18z GFS followed the 12z CMC/Euro with what is almost a clean pass. One more jog like that, and it will all be southeast of us. Not sure if the net result is different, but a pretty big move...quicker, weaker, SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Temp profiles are still not the best but the 18z GFS followed the 12z CMC/Euro with what is almost a clean pass. One more jog like that, and it will all be southeast of us. Not sure if the net result is different, but a pretty big move...quicker, weaker, SE. Interestingly, it seems the last several systems (the one for tomorrow included) have ended up weaker and to the SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 40 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Interestingly, it seems the last several systems (the one for tomorrow included) have ended up weaker and to the SE. Yeah, some guys in the MA forum mentioned the same thing(mets). I wonder if there is a model bias to cut storms during El Nino due to "model memory" from the past three years. IDK - just spitballing. If models "learn," they may have developed some Nina habits. Used to (I know you know this), we wanted a storm to the SE of us and it would trend NW. Now, I have no idea where we want it on modeling. The cutter after that....maybe that is where we want it! LOL. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 44 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Interestingly, it seems the last several systems (the one for tomorrow included) have ended up weaker and to the SE. The 18z GEFS ensemble is a 100% clean pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks like the last NAM run was pretty good for the north valley (TRI) tomorrow. Almost looks like some moisture funnels right up the valley? Interesting. Probably won't be much more than a dusting or so due to the temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Again, with it being weaker less cold will be involved in the NW quadrant. I have not looked at time of day, but it could be icy. Here is the comparison of the 12z GEFS to the 18z GEFS. New is on the left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Again, with it being weaker less cold will be involved in the NW quadrant. I have not looked at time of day, but it could be icy. Here is the comparison of the 12z GEFS to the 18z GEFS. New is on the left. Bamwx has a good video this afternoon from twitter if you or anyone wants to listen. Good explanation on things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Itryatgolf70 said: Bamwx has a good video this afternoon from twitter if you or anyone wants to listen. Good explanation on things. I used to watch Bam a lot...but they started flip flopping so much...they had to be right at some point. But generally, yes, they are very informative. Just so I don't have to post twice....for a fun look, go to hour 84 on the RGEM. Craziness. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The weaker, slower bias on modeling right now is going to have to be reckoned with. I don't know if it is new programming, bad data, or something else. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On a positive note, the 18z GFS is just wave after wave of very cold air. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 56 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, some guys in the MA forum mentioned the same thing(mets). I wonder if there is a model bias to cut storms during El Nino due to "model memory" from the past three years. IDK - just spitballing. If models "learn," they may have developed some Nina habits. Used to (I know you know this), we wanted a storm to the SE of us and it would trend NW. Now, I have no idea where we want it on modeling. The cutter after that....maybe that is where we want it! LOL. Bingo ! I think you nailed there buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, John1122 said: The PAC NW is supposed to get 7-10 inches of rain and 60-80 inches of snow over the next 16 days. When you see that there, we're rarely going to be getting much in the way of winter weather, as it means a very hostile pacific. Yeah, that's the case most of the time. Hopefully, the strong -NAO will ultimately lead to those Systems tracking SE and we get some hybrid Transfers ala 95-96. Phasing with STJ Systems would be the thing to watch with the Nino being around now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nice write-up by Tomer Burg with regards to modeling solutions to this week's winter storm, or, rather, lack of potential. The lead time from 144 hrs to 48 hours was a significant failure across the board. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The NAM and RGEM both got interesting for the Plateau/SEKy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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