John1122 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: I can’t take credit for the phase 7 snow analysis. I believe that was from Eric Webb and specifically was addressing NC, possibly only at Raleigh. Also, I can’t recall whether or not Eric was looking only at El Niño cases. My big thing in recent years of MJO analyses for the SE has been to harp on the tendency for cold and wintry wx to favor weak MJO: just outside, near, or inside the circle. For example, off the top of my head I recall discovering that every major ATL ZR and IP (as far back as MJO charts go, which is mid 1970s) has been when the MJO was weak. I’m sure that streak will end at some point as the sample size isn’t large (I think it is only 8), but OTOH it makes sense that it would favor weak since weak tends to be colder than strong. Also, I wasn’t looking specifically at the TN Valley, which may be quite different. Do you have a link for the MJO charts back to the mid-70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Phase 7 in Feb = BN heights from coast to coast over the southern half of the country and appears to feature a -NAO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Do you have a link for the MJO charts back to the mid-70s? http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: Phase 7 in Feb = BN heights from coast to coast over the southern half of the country and appears to feature a -NAO. This is from NOAA fwiw for JFM averaged out for temperatures: phase 7 near normal to temperatures (within 2F) but that’s for those three months combined and also aren’t heights: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 February El Nino MJO Phase 7. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I'm hoping the convection fires up in central pacific so we can perhaps get back to colder and stormier. I guess the consensus is it won't get cold at the earliest until mid February and if true, the clock is ticking for sure by then! Hopefully it will come in earlier if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: February El Nino MJO Phase 7. Thanks for posting this. I need to also add that the maps I posted are for all ENSO rather than just El Niño, which itself tends to have lower heights in the S US especially in Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I'm hoping the convection fires up in central pacific so we can perhaps get back to colder and stormier. I guess the consensus is it won't get cold at the earliest until mid February and if true, the clock is ticking for sure by then! Hopefully it will come in earlier if it happens Mid Feb is still plenty early enough to potentially result in a several week long period dominated by cold and periods of wintry precip, which has occurred in the SE US during a good number of El Ninos. The extended models are targeting the 3 weeks from mid Feb through early Mar. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Much as i gave up on the MJO this morning i'm much more of a skeptic once again where the MJO will be at.Seems more Euro ensembles today are more on the faster side like the velocity has been showing 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Much as i gave up on the MJO this morning i'm much more of a skeptic once again where the MJO will be at.Seems more Euro ensembles today are more on the faster side like the velocity has been showing Would that be more favorable for a quicker return to cold and stormy if that happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, GaWx said: I can’t take credit for the phase 7 snow analysis. I believe that was from Eric Webb and specifically was addressing NC, possibly only at Raleigh. Also, I can’t recall whether or not Eric was looking only at El Niño cases. My big thing in recent years of MJO analyses for the SE has been to harp on the tendency for cold and wintry wx to favor weak MJO: just outside, near, or inside the circle. For example, off the top of my head I recall discovering that every major ATL ZR and IP (as far back as MJO charts go, which is mid 1970s) has been when the MJO was weak. I’m sure that streak will end at some point as the sample size isn’t large (I think it is only 8), but OTOH it makes sense that it would favor weak since weak tends to be colder than strong. Also, I wasn’t looking specifically at the TN Valley, which may be quite different. Yeah, my mistake there. i think may of been discussed in same thread. It was Webb about the MJO 7 deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 17 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Would that be more favorable for a quicker return to cold and stormy if that happens? I'm not sure myself,there is signs tho the AO could crash right now but you'd need other teles to work in tandem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, John1122 said: February El Nino MJO Phase 7. Thanks for posting that John. I suspected something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Thanks for posting this. I need to also add that the maps I posted are for all ENSO rather than just El Niño, which itself tends to have lower heights in the S US especially in Feb. Yeah, that was the point I was making in my original post regarding Ph 7 being different during Nino that I thought you had researched. Makes sense when looking at the typical Nino 500 mb Pattern really. Quite probable the reason p 7 shows as slightly warmer in the east in the full MJO Chart. Nino Years would scale back the Temps from what would be if they weren't included. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The GFS kinda brought back winter in early February....this is a result of a 3 or 4 day winter storm that just slams us. Lots of sleet too. This would be a repeat of Feb 1996. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Probably time for a February thread. Most anything in the median to long range is in February now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 hours ago, John1122 said: The GFS kinda brought back winter in early February....this is a result of a 3 or 4 day winter storm that just slams us. Lots of sleet too. This would be a repeat of Feb 1996. That is some crazy ice near Atlanta 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 4 hours ago, John1122 said: Probably time for a February thread. Most anything in the median to long range is in February now. I'll make one. Have to use the elk and wooly worm pics again. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I'm not saying this will happen or will be politically correct,but the pattern does have some resemblence to Feb 2021.Once again this is not a forecast Overview An Arctic airmass spread across Middle Tennessee from Thursday February 11 through Sunday February 14, 2021, bringing very cold temperatures in the teens and 20s along with lengthy periods of freezing drizzle. This led to ice forming on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines, as well as bridges, overpasses, and some roadways. As a major winter storm brought additional freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the area from Sunday evening February 14 into Monday February 15, 2021, the previous ice combined with the new ice, sleet, and snow to cause significant ice storm damage across parts of east-central Middle Tennessee, as well as create massive travel disruptions areawide. Locations from Giles and Lincoln Counties northeastward to Pickett and northern Fentress Counties received anywhere from 0.5" to over 1" of ice accretion from the combination of the weekend freezing drizzle plus new freezing rain. Numerous trees and power lines were downed in many counties, resulting in tens of thousands of power outages, with the worst damage affecting Lincoln, Bedford, Coffee, Cannon, Putnam, Overton, and northern Fentress Counties. Elsewhere, 2 to 3 inches of combined sleet and snow along with the frigid temperatures caked most surfaces in a thick layer of ice, with travel coming to a standstill across the northwestern half of Middle Tennessee - including the Nashville metro area. https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/01/22/mjo-forecast-and-stratospheric-warming/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I’m still amazed at the amount of snow on the ground in and around Knox Co. You still need 4 wheel drive to get around some roads, especially those that are on the north side of a ridge. As of yesterday I still have 4-5” in the shade of my backyard. Parts of my driveway still have a couple inches. Probably the third “once in a lifetime” snow event for me up to this point and I’m almost 50. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro Weeklies look right on track for cold to return around the 14th, give or take 48 hours at this range. The control is bitterly cold around the 20th, and the CFSv2 has a similar signal. Most global ensembles are showing the initial transition around d15-16. Remember, transition does not mean the day we get cold. Should be 4-7 days after that initial transition. Looks like a similar window (Against mid Feb norms and not mid Jan) to the one we just departed. A very 95-96 or 14-15 cycle of cold. MJO is ruling the roost and it is super squirrelly right now. We should see opportunities with this, and it looks centered slightly more eastward. JB mentioned that adjustment and that looks to be the case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro Weeklies look right on track for cold to return around the 14th, give or take 48 hours at this range. The control is bitterly cold around the 20th, and the CFSv2 has a similar signal. Most global ensembles are showing the initial transition around d15-16. Remember, transition does not mean the day we get cold. Should be 4-7 days after that initial transition. Looks like a similar window (Against mid Feb norms and not mid Jan) to the one we just departed. A very 95-96 or 14-15 cycle of cold. MJO is ruling the roost and it is super squirrelly right now. We should see opportunities with this, and it looks centered slightly more eastward. JB mentioned that adjustment and that looks to be the case. Hopefully, we get a surprise before then. Even a 1-2 inch deal would dull the 2 week snow drought. Who knows, maybe the SSW induced blocking will speed things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 hours ago, jaxjagman said: I'm not saying this will happen or will be politically correct,but the pattern does have some resemblence to Feb 2021.Once again this is not a forecast Overview An Arctic airmass spread across Middle Tennessee from Thursday February 11 through Sunday February 14, 2021, bringing very cold temperatures in the teens and 20s along with lengthy periods of freezing drizzle. This led to ice forming on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines, as well as bridges, overpasses, and some roadways. As a major winter storm brought additional freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the area from Sunday evening February 14 into Monday February 15, 2021, the previous ice combined with the new ice, sleet, and snow to cause significant ice storm damage across parts of east-central Middle Tennessee, as well as create massive travel disruptions areawide. Locations from Giles and Lincoln Counties northeastward to Pickett and northern Fentress Counties received anywhere from 0.5" to over 1" of ice accretion from the combination of the weekend freezing drizzle plus new freezing rain. Numerous trees and power lines were downed in many counties, resulting in tens of thousands of power outages, with the worst damage affecting Lincoln, Bedford, Coffee, Cannon, Putnam, Overton, and northern Fentress Counties. Elsewhere, 2 to 3 inches of combined sleet and snow along with the frigid temperatures caked most surfaces in a thick layer of ice, with travel coming to a standstill across the northwestern half of Middle Tennessee - including the Nashville metro area. https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/01/22/mjo-forecast-and-stratospheric-warming/ That would be amazing to see anything remotely close to that scenario lol. We were lucky to be on the cold side of the storm. It would be a great way to end winter. I was living in Jonesboro ar then and we got between 11-12 inches snow between both events and snowing in the teens! Places se of little rock ar saw close to 25 inches!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Hopefully, we get a surprise before then. Even a 1-2 inch deal would dull the 2 week snow drought. Who knows, maybe the SSW induced blocking will speed things up a bit. Maybe some wrap-around snow. As Jeff noted, wall-to-wall cold during January for 14 days is unlikely. That said, this is definitely a warm-warm-warm upcoming time frame on the horizon. What comes after Feb 1 could be toasty. Fortunately, it should be only a couple of weeks after that...and then we are back in the freezer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Not trying to wish my life away, but I am pretty much flushing the next three weeks in terms of looking for winter. So, the end of week 3 is where my eyes are for now.... Week 4 of the Weeklies...control and then ensemble....days 21-28. You can see the 18z GEFS begin to erode the eastern ridge. The Euro Weeklies basically slide a decent trough in there by the 14th. At that point, we should see an absolutely torrid cold front race across the country around that timeframe - give our take 48 hours. Now, this is still waaaay out there. It could change, and probably will. The MJO is trying to dance around in 6-7-8. I think if we can get the MJO headed towards 8, the floodgates(of cold) are gonna be open. It looks like the EPO is the driver w/ a -NAO possible accentuating that. My guess is the stratwarm stuff will do about what it did last week. It will be a warmer air mass than last week likely as it is a month later than last week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Maybe some wrap-around snow. As Jeff noted, wall-to-wall cold during January for 14 days is unlikely. That said, this is definitely a warm-warm-warm upcoming time frame on the horizon. What comes after Feb 1 could be toasty. Fortunately, it should be only a couple of weeks after that...and then we are back in the freezer. I guess depending on what model is correct on the mjo progression. I wouldn't mind a return to winter, especially if it's not cold and dry. Just less cold with more snow/ice opportunities 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I guess depending on what model is correct on the mjo progression. I wouldn't mind a return to winter, especially if it's not cold and dry. Just less cold with more snow/ice opportunities I don't think a single model shows the same thing. LOL. It looks like a squirrel went berserk in the First Self-Righteous Church In that sleepy little town of Pascagoula. As for a dry spell. I won't ever rule it out. Cold and dry is not abnormal. But the STJ is absolutely ripping right now. Should be good in that regard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The GEFS ext is showing the same thing during that time frame. Now, some can kicking wouldn't be out of the norm, but nice time frame if it works out. If not, we start tracking spring wx and making vacation plans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 This is this week compared to week 4(well days 20-27...run is still going) of the GEFS extended. This is a signal for a pretty nice cold shot from this range. It will change some, but worth noting. When the entire continent is cold...source regions are good. Send the STJ into that....and could be interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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