January Medium-Long Range Discussion

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am starting to feel like modeling has a decent handle on the timing of the upcoming 500 pattern.

Webb mentioned this on Twitter.  JB mentioned this as well, and so did Cosgrove.  ->  The pattern, which began the days after Christmas and will end early this week, is set to repeat itself beginning Feb 7th.  Now, that might sound like I am speeding up the timeline.  Nope, not in general.  Maybe an argument can be made that modeling has moved forward about 72 hours depending on the metric (500 vs surface temps).  MJO plots reflected that this morning - slightly speeding up the return of winter.  The second week of Feb(7-14) will be similar to the transition right after Christmas.  Ridge gets kicked out.  BN heights (weak at first) begin to nudge under the eastern ridge.  The trough will have little to no cold in it.  Eventually, the trough builds in the East w/ a -NAO building over the top.  Look familiar?  By Valentine's Day, the Weeklies have this:

 

By the third week in February, we get this in regards to temps - round 2.  Now, we need BN temps by this time in order to have a decent shot at snow(average temps are higher by this time), and that is what is in order if this model is correct.  Week 1 - warm.  Week 2 - less warm.  Week 3 - cold.  Week 4 cold.  Early March - cold.

I feel like I have seen this movie before.  Jet retracts.  MJO rotates into colder phases.  NAO fires. Winter.  I do think the MJO is playing a familiar game in which it is too slow to rotate in the long range and dawdles too long in warm phases.  Let's see if the cold is moved up during the next few days.

Models are just now "feeling" the effects of the recent strat warm.  It is still possible that model mayhem could ensue.

 

It seems that way.There is some slight differences.When we saw the last jet extension(+EAMT)in Dec the GWO gained momentum we also saw the MJO strenghten into WH headed towards Africa,this time looks different and with question marks.The GWO is certainly,seemingly gaining momentum compared to in Dec but questions still loom where the MJO is going.Also around Christmas the SOI was more coupled with a NINO

 

25 Dec 2023	1009.91	1007.95	-9.13	-3.78	-6.83
24 Dec 2023	1007.62	1009.15	-27.25	-3.37	-6.80
23 Dec 2023	1006.15	1009.45	-36.43	-2.68	-6.55

 

The SOI in late Dec(top) was more coupled with Nino.Soi as of late(bottom) looks like we are in a NINA

 

21 Jan 2024	1010.18	1003.25	10.93	5.24	-1.69
20 Jan 2024	1010.92	1003.10	15.13	3.85	-1.89
19 Jan 2024	1011.60	1002.65	20.45	2.87	-2.30
18 Jan 2024	1011.14	1002.35	19.70	2.12	-2.79

The GWO is certainly on the rise but compared to this time

 

Oh well its just a waiting game it seems.I posted the GWO for comparison to around Christmas time,its really similar right now

[weathertree4u2]

22 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

It seems that way.There is some slight differences.When we saw the last jet extension(+EAMT)in Dec the GWO gained momentum we also saw the MJO strenghten into WH headed towards Africa,this time looks different and with question marks.The GWO is certainly,seemingly gaining momentum compared to in Dec but questions still loom where the MJO is going.Also around Christmas the SOI was more coupled with a NINO

 

25 Dec 2023	1009.91	1007.95	-9.13	-3.78	-6.83
24 Dec 2023	1007.62	1009.15	-27.25	-3.37	-6.80
23 Dec 2023	1006.15	1009.45	-36.43	-2.68	-6.55

 

The SOI in late Dec(top) was more coupled with Nino.Soi as of late(bottom) looks like we are in a NINA

 

21 Jan 2024	1010.18	1003.25	10.93	5.24	-1.69
20 Jan 2024	1010.92	1003.10	15.13	3.85	-1.89
19 Jan 2024	1011.60	1002.65	20.45	2.87	-2.30
18 Jan 2024	1011.14	1002.35	19.70	2.12	-2.79

The GWO is certainly on the rise but compared to this time

 

Oh well its just a waiting game it seems.I posted the GWO for comparison to around Christmas time,its really similar right now

Food for thought,  thanks for the post

[Carvers Gap]

From MRX on social media...

Knoxville has so far confirmed 6 consecutive days with 4" or more of snow on the ground. This is tied with February 2-7, 1996 as the most consecutive days with 4" or more of snow depth with data going back to 1910. At our office, the same is true, but our data only goes back to the 1995-1996 winter. When looking at 6" or greater depth, Knoxville confirmed 4 consecutive days, which is the 2nd longest in the 114-year period of snow depth data. #mrxwx

[Itryatgolf70]

We don't want it to be more niña like in February because most are blowtorches from experience. Typically a true niño is backloaded in February and early March. The AAM is important and you want it positive in winter to match everything else for more niño conditions imo

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

From MRX on social media...

Knoxville has so far confirmed 6 consecutive days with 4" or more of snow on the ground. This is tied with February 2-7, 1996 as the most consecutive days with 4" or more of snow depth with data going back to 1910. At our office, the same is true, but our data only goes back to the 1995-1996 winter. When looking at 6" or greater depth, Knoxville confirmed 4 consecutive days, which is the 2nd longest in the 114-year period of snow depth data. #mrxwx

I wonder how trustworthy their Data is. We all know how flawed alot of it is, in particular Snowfall data. I'm pretty sure Knoxville had alot more than that in the late 70's. 

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I wonder how trustworthy their Data is. We all know how flawed alot of it is, in particular Snowfall data. I'm pretty sure Knoxville had alot more than that in the late 70's. 

IDK.  I lived in Knoxvegas during the 70s.  I remember lots of snow.  But being so young, I don't remember how long it lasted.  It seemed reasonably frequent, but I don't remember it staying around for a long time.  I do remember being out of school for long stretches of time.  I would think '94 would have come close.  That is the longest I have seen snow on the ground in Knoxville....frozen tundra.

[Itryatgolf70]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

IDK.  I lived in Knoxvegas during the 70s.  I remember lots of snow.  But being so young, I don't remember how long it lasted.  It seemed reasonably frequent, but I don't remember it staying around for a long time.  I do remember being out of school for long stretches of time.  I would think '94 would have come close.  That is the longest I have seen snow on the ground in Knoxville....frozen tundra.

Fwiw, Eric webb, who is usually decent with weather stuff, believes winter comes back earlier than we think. Around Feb 5th or shortly after. We will soon find out. 

[Daniel Boone]

51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

IDK.  I lived in Knoxvegas during the 70s.  I remember lots of snow.  But being so young, I don't remember how long it lasted.  It seemed reasonably frequent, but I don't remember it staying around for a long time.  I do remember being out of school for long stretches of time.  I would think '94 would have come close.  That is the longest I have seen snow on the ground in Knoxville....frozen tundra.

We had a month and a half of solid snowcover of greater than 6 inches lin Pennington gap in the Winter 77-78. There was well over a foot in shaded areas and north facing slopes then. 

[Daniel Boone]

41 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Fwiw, Eric webb, who is usually decent with weather stuff, believes winter comes back earlier than we think. Around Feb 5th or shortly after. We will soon find out. 

I saw that Tweet. He gave his reasoning too. Actually, has Merritt. Same IOD affects are different in February and March than December and January. 

[Carvers Gap]

Preliminary discussion this AM.....

As noted earlier, I see the 500 pattern beginning to change around the 7th.  I don't see cold in the pattern until maybe the 12th-14th at the earliest.  One poster in the MA forum (I think a met) mentioned that Nino winters tend to have a second cold snap centered in mid-Feb.  I have found that to be true, and maybe centered slightly more towards the beginning of Feb vs later.  New MJO plots should post sometime this morning, and that should shed some light on potential upcoming model trends.  Most 0z ensembles are very stubborn to move (upcoming) much AN heights out of the eastern half of NA.  The 0z GFS tried to get us out of that pattern, but the 6z didn't follow it.   Wx models are often too quick to break down stable weather patterns, and the upcoming eastern ridge is as stable as it gets IMO.  My thinking is still similar to yesterday.  Could winter come back by the 5th?  Sure, and I hope so.  I certainly don't know the future.  Let's see what the CPC MJO plots look like this morning.   Pattern change begins today.  Let's see where it takes us.  Is it a thaw or a true 3-4 week change?  We will see.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Nice fantasy storm for some areas at the end of the 12z GFS. 

You know, for you sickos like me who will be ready for another one in two weeks. Honestly the track is what I would expect in an El Nino. Obviously doesn't mean it will happen. 

 

MJO looks like it is hustling though 5 and may already be in 6. Satellite looks like it would be in 6 to me and trying to push int the Western Pac

Also of note is some convection now firing in the Central Pac:

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is workable for an interim timeframe until we can maybe get a better deal by Feb 10.  Backdoor cold fronts FTW?

[Carvers Gap]

We have two camps of the MJO today....loop back into warm phases forever or progress quickly to cold phases.  My money is on neither.  LOL.   I suspect it continues to cold phases at a normal pace.

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Nice fantasy storm for some areas at the end of the 12z GFS. 

You know, for you sickos like me who will be ready for another one in two weeks. Honestly the track is what I would expect in an El Nino. Obviously doesn't mean it will happen. 

 

MJO looks like it is hustling though 5 and may already be in 6. Satellite looks like it would be in 6 to me and trying to push int the Western Pac

Also of note is some convection now firing in the Central Pac:

Yeah, I just posted and should have read yours first.  It is MOVING on along.  Does it hit the wall in 6 or keep going?  I bet it keeps going.  Good trends.  The 12z GFS certainly seems like it is buying the faster MJO.  I suspect the ensemble will wash out and go slower...but the trends matter.  Good post.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'm really encouraged to see come convection in the central Pac, it has been dead there for a while. 

[nrgjeff]

Looks like a mild two or three weeks. Two weeks straight warm is tough to do this time of year. Perhaps a pair of 5-7 day warm periods with a cool sandwiched in between. 

High latitude ridging has sloshed back and fourth between Greenland and Scandanavia on a 4-6 week cycle since Thanksgiving. We'd be due for another cold period the back half of February. Cold wouldn't have the punch after 15 Feb. However it could get cold enough for winter precip. 

Honestly I could use the break now. Enjoy some Conference college basketball as we dig into the heart of the conference season. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the Weeklies...the 14th looks like a good place to start for more cold weather.  So, basically the end of week 3 on modeling or the beginning of the third week in February.  The control is very cold, and maybe a bit quicker as it has the cold at the front beginning of week 3.  The ensemble was less cold while the control was pretty frigid compared to yesterday's run.  Looks like a good timeline.  It could be quicker during future runs given MJO trends...but looks about right to me.  We gotta pay the MJO toll.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Honest to goodness Clipper on the 6z GFS:

Euro and CMC have the system, but it is more disorganized and further east. 

Even though I don't see this turning into anything for me, I'd love to see this for some of you upper east TN folks and just see an actual clipper work out again. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just looking around the Pacific satellite as is the custom, really nice symmetry and a few other notable features:

That southern symmetry is probably why the SOI is finally negative for the first time in two weeks. Not a huge drop, but progress from the high positive measurements lately. For any of you who are wondering what the SOI is, it is a measurement of surface pressure between Darwin Australia and Tahiti. I've kind of always wondered what the exact correlation for us is, and I guess, looking at this now, if you have a big drop, it means you have a lot of storminess over Tahiti and maybe since the globe likes symmetry you are going to get a northern hemisphere response that aims at the Southwestern US? I think the SOI as it's measured, also has a lot to do with the fact that the MJO is defined as a dipole with sinking air being as important as rising air for its measurement. But I am not an expert and that is just me trying to figure things out for myself. 

Looks to me like the refiring central Pac convection and the MJO wave will meet somewhere near or just west of the dateline. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sorry to swamp the feed with satellite imagery this AM, but its so cool today.

 

What a connection to the east Pac! there even looks like there is a shortwave riding out of the Bay of Campeche. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Remember when there was discussion about how dry things were in December and how warm it was?  One thing that was noted was that if this was an El Nino winter it should be cloudy and rainy, especially for the eastern half of the state.   The other thing which was noted was that the second half of winter should be colder w/ systems tracking out of the GOM.  Also, remember how the October/September time frames were so dry(this year was top 5 driest...three of the years were El Nino), but that the following winter featured a lot of cold?  

The potential for flooding is now an issue for mid and late week due to our snow pack melting -> welcome to El Nino.

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Sorry to swamp the feed with satellite imagery this AM, but its so cool today.

 

What a connection to the east Pac! there even looks like there is a shortwave riding out of the Bay of Campeche. 

 

That’s really neat to see.  You can definitely see the stream of moisture heading this way.  Very wet conditions is on tap for this area. 

[jaxjagman]

Guess ill give up on the MJO being more adavanced,it dont seem to have much support,the next 10 days the Euro ensembles are pretty much bunched up into the WP

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Remember when there was discussion about how dry things were in December and how warm it was?  One thing that was noted was that if this was an El Nino winter it should be cloudy and rainy, especially in the eastern half of the state.   The other thing which was noted was that the second half of winter should be colder w/ systems tracking out of the GOM.  Also, remember how the October/September time frames were so dry(this year was top 5 driest...three of the years were El Nino), but that the following winter featured a lot of cold?  

The potential for flooding is now an issue for mid and late week due to our snow pack melting -> welcome to El Nino.

Even next week looks to be very wet with lots of rains. 

[Coach B]

24 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Guess ill give up on the MJO being more adavanced,it dont seem to have much support,the next 10 days the Euro ensembles are pretty much bunched up into the WP

Have I read that phase 7 in February is actually pretty decent for se snowstorms? Maybe that's just for the east coast?

[jaxjagman]

Most of the models in the long range models shows a ridge into East Asia,with height rises into East China/Korea,that should be a warm look towards Feb 8-9th around that time anyways for us,maybe some hints also that some sort of change is upcoming afterwards into Mongolia and China on that map.If the GFS is anywhere right we should see a cool down shortly after,this is a cold look in the lower latitude of East Asia,but we all know how the GFS can whiff at this range

[jaxjagman]

45 minutes ago, Coach B said:

Have I read that phase 7 in February is actually pretty decent for se snowstorms? Maybe that's just for the east coast?

Should be out west not the east

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Guess ill give up on the MJO being more adavanced,it dont seem to have much support,the next 10 days the Euro ensembles are pretty much bunched up into the WP

Looking at what Holston pointed out I think the Model is in Error here. That central Pacific Convection should help change that outcome. Also, with it firing now, in my mind, that should mute the current MJO Phase some. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Should be out west not the east

Yeah, greater odds as the plots show. Nothing like ph. 5 and 6 though. I think where he got that was a study and data GaWx recently presented irt the Southeast. The research showed the SE had greater instances of Snow during Ph 7 El Nino Years. 

    The STJ and typical blocking is more than likely the difference maker. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, greater odds as the plots show. Nothing like ph. 5 and 6 though. I think where he got that was a study and data GaWx recently presented irt the Southeast. The research showed the SE had greater instances of Snow during Ph 7 El Nino Years. 

    The STJ and typical blocking is more than likely the difference maker. 

 I can’t take credit for the phase 7 snow analysis. I believe that was from Eric Webb and specifically was addressing NC, possibly only at Raleigh. Also, I can’t recall whether or not Eric was looking only at El Niño cases.

 My big thing in recent years of MJO analyses for the SE has been to harp on the tendency for cold and wintry wx to favor weak MJO: just outside, near, or inside the circle. For example, off the top of my head I recall discovering that every major ATL ZR and IP (as far back as MJO charts go, which is mid 1970s) has been when the MJO was weak. I’m sure that streak will end at some point as the sample size isn’t large (I think it is only 8), but OTOH it makes sense that it would favor weak since weak tends to be colder than strong. Also, I wasn’t looking specifically at the TN Valley, which may be quite different.