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January Medium-Long Range Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler
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Another winter, another fascinating teleconnection tug-of-war! From what I'm hearing and seeing, we got a decent PAC again but decreasing favor with the MJO/NAO/ENSO. I think thaw week will bring some critical clarity. Like many, I agree with Carver and others who are shining the light on February's second half. Personally, I'm tempted to throw climo out the window given a) expectations have generally been 1-2 weeks delayed since met winter started and b) the pattern has been slightly more fluid than progressive.

With so many question marks surrounding the 'decreasing favor' elements mentioned above, I'm tempted to yield to the most consistent signals. Netting it all out for our part of the world, not seeing evidence of long-term PAC troughing and SER expands the tent pegs of our playing field enough for me to believe strong blocking will be back. The questions to me boil down to the magnitude of stratospheric warming/timing, if a strong -EPO/+PNA can offset wherever the MJO eventually fades into, and can we preserve moisture supply the next time cold air invades. Regardless, it will be interestoing to see where the next arctic amplification axis sets up after our 2-3 week warm-up. TN was in the perfect spot this last go-around as noted by many of our metros being some of the coldest spots in the entire conus a few morning ago. 

P.S. For all your guys in NC, I'm starting to feel guilty. If it's any consolation, I wouldn't mind you guys getting the next banger to end your misery. 

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2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I'm in hopes that thwarts the MJO mess up. If it can bring back strong blocking that should do the trick. 

That big ridge at the end of the 18z GEFS should* do it....that is what should dislodge the TPV and is often what I see right before big changes occur at our latitude.   Gonna take some patience.  I suspect we see a massive winter storm(or two) along the eastern seaboard before we break for spring.  It is a shame to have lost so much of December, but it is what it is.  I do expect a quick start to winter next December.  Hoping we can get a weak La Nina.  If so, game on....

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23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That big ridge at the end of the 18z GEFS out to do it....that is what should dislodge the TPV and is often what I see right before big changes occur at our latitude.   Gonna take some patience.  I suspect we see a massive winter storm(or two) along the eastern seaboard before we break for spring.  It is a shame to have lost so much of December, but it is what it is.  I do expect a quick start to winter next December.  Hoping we can get a weak La Nina.  If so, game on....

I agree. Yeah, many are gloom and doom for next Winter but if La nina is weak after Nino, should be good. 

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54 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That big ridge at the end of the 18z GEFS should* do it....that is what should dislodge the TPV and is often what I see right before big changes occur at our latitude.   Gonna take some patience.  I suspect we see a massive winter storm(or two) along the eastern seaboard before we break for spring.  It is a shame to have lost so much of December, but it is what it is.  I do expect a quick start to winter next December.  Hoping we can get a weak La Nina.  If so, game on....

The thing is as we approach February, the clock is ticking because sun angle gets higher, it gets darker later. I'm hoping it gets colder faster than most think and not delayed too long lol

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The GEFS ext is beginning to show a similar look to what we have now....NAO is firing.  I "think" that is the strat split doing its work.  Feb 15 seems to be the date.  

As for whether Feb can be a good month?  When February is "on," there is no month better for snow.  If there is ever a year for a portion of Feb to be good, this is the one.  And honestly, some great winters of the past didn't even begin until Feb.  With these past La Nina winters, we are used to Feb kicking out West and never coming back.  This one might be different.

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The GEFS ext is beginning to show a similar look to what we have now....NAO is firing.  I "think" that is the strat split doing its work.  Feb 15 seems to be the date.  

As for whether Feb can be a good month?  When February is "on," there is no month better for snow.  If there is ever a year for a portion of Feb to be good, this is the one.  And honestly, some great winters of the past didn't even begin until Feb.  With these past La Nina winters, we are used to Feb kicking out West and never coming back.  This one might be different.

That's more like it. 

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Just looking at the MJO and 12z suite...once we are through the next 48 yours, the real question is when do we go below freezing again after Tuesday.  Big time, and likely lengthy warm-up still on tap.  We need the CFSv2 to score a coup.  Still a micro window around the 31st, but that is fading.  

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19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NBM has the central and southern plateau at 4” of rain by early next week and close to 5.5” near Huntsville AL. 
 

will be interesting to see how that plays out with snow melt . 

Not good is my initial guess

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Starting to see the effects of the strat warm on the Weeklies....much more blocking up top, especially on the control run.  The NAO is showing up as well after the 10th.

Snow and ice have been on the ground for close to a week and roads are still bad here. Getting somewhat better now. Longest stretch of cold in a while that I can remember. It will take alot to beat this in February or early March. 

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6 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Snow and ice have been on the ground for close to a week and roads are still bad here. Getting somewhat better now. Longest stretch of cold in a while that I can remember. It will take alot to beat this in February or early March. 

I need a break lol

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7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NBM has the central and southern plateau at 4” of rain by early next week and close to 5.5” near Huntsville AL. 
 

will be interesting to see how that plays out with snow melt . 

Weather stations here are already saying flooding could be an issue this week.  3-5” is what they are predicting.  Thats alot of rain on top of a lot  of snow melt.  Yep going from dry to very wet.  That sounds about right. lol. 

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MJO runs this morning do show less of a pause in phase 6.  As noted, that pause  in the long range has been a bias all winter.  The MJO has generally sped up some through the end of January.   It still goes slower through 6, but fewer models cause it to stay indefinitely.  

I am still thinking roughly Feb 15 - first week of March.  Now, if the CFSv2 is correct...the entire sequence changes up.   I don’t think today’s version is correct.  

No real changes to my thoughts yesterday.  It is possible that we see  colder timeframe move up slightly during the next few weeklies’ runs in order to reflect the MJO moves.  Still a long way to go...

The Euro Weeklies switched the pattern back to seasonal around Feb 14-16, and turned very cold by roughly the 20th.

Remember how the pattern changed after Christmas but took a couple of weeks for cold air to take over.  Same deal.  If we can get the pattern change to move up to the 10th, that would be huge.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

MJO runs this morning do show less of a pause in phase 6.  As noted, that pause  in the long range has been a bias all winter.  The MJO has generally sped up some through the end of January.   It still goes slower through 6, but fewer models cause it to stay indefinitely.  

I am still thinking roughly Feb 15 - first week of March.  Now, if the CFSv2 is correct...the entire sequence changes up.   I don’t think today’s version is correct.  

No real changes to my thoughts yesterday.  It is possible that we see  colder timeframe move up slightly during the next few weeklies’ runs in order to reflect the MJO moves.  Still a long way to go...

The Euro Weeklies switched the pattern back to seasonal around Feb 14-16, and turned very cold by roughly the 20th.

Remember how the pattern changed after Christmas but took a couple of weeks for cold air to take over.  Same deal.  If we can get the pattern change to move up to the 10th, that would be huge.

 

 

Time is of an essence once we get to February, especially towards mid month. Sun angle becomes a big factor for most. I'm hoping it gets colder before mid month. Not as cold but stormier with better winter weather opportunities. 

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2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Time is of an essence once we get to February, especially towards mid month. Sun angle becomes a big factor for most. I'm hoping it gets colder before mid month. Not as cold but stormier with better winter weather opportunities. 

Sun angle matters to some extent.  That said, I have seen snow in Yellowstone on June 14th.  They have an elevation advantage and a latitude advantage for sure....but that is almost the summer solstice.  February during the past nine winters has been decently boring...but when it is on, it is on.  The snow doesn’t last quite as long, but this year might buck the trend.  But yes, the return to winter is generally considered our “end” of winter.   The can kick from the 7th to mid Feb is a thorn. 

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Nashville had a nice winter storm on Valentines Day of 2021.  Arctic front pushed through and changed rain to freezing rain then changed over to sleet.  Probably had close to 2” of sleet before finally changing over to snow.  Snow accumulated to around 3” - 4”.  I’m hedging my bets that we’ll be tracking again by Valentines Day this year.

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I am starting to feel like modeling has a decent handle on the timing of the upcoming 500 pattern.

Webb mentioned this on Twitter.  JB mentioned this as well, and so did Cosgrove.  ->  The pattern, which began the days after Christmas and will end early this week, is set to repeat itself beginning Feb 7th.  Now, that might sound like I am speeding up the timeline.  Nope, not in general.  Maybe an argument can be made that modeling has moved forward about 72 hours depending on the metric (500 vs surface temps).  MJO plots reflected that this morning - slightly speeding up the return of winter.  The second week of Feb(7-14) will be similar to the transition right after Christmas.  Ridge gets kicked out.  BN heights (weak at first) begin to nudge under the eastern ridge.  The trough will have little to no cold in it.  Eventually, the trough builds in the East w/ a -NAO building over the top.  Look familiar?  By Valentine's Day, the Weeklies have this:

Screen_Shot_2024-01-21_at_3.33.07_PM.png

 

By the third week in February, we get this in regards to temps - round 2.  Now, we need BN temps by this time in order to have a decent shot at snow(average temps are higher by this time), and that is what is in order if this model is correct.  Week 1 - warm.  Week 2 - less warm.  Week 3 - cold.  Week 4 cold.  Early March - cold.

Screen_Shot_2024-01-21_at_3.37.09_PM.png

I feel like I have seen this movie before.  Jet retracts.  MJO rotates into colder phases.  NAO fires. Winter.  I do think the MJO is playing a familiar game in which it is too slow to rotate in the long range and dawdles too long in warm phases.  Let's see if the cold is moved up during the next few days.

Models are just now "feeling" the effects of the recent strat warm.  It is still possible that model mayhem could ensue.

 

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