January Medium-Long Range Discussion

[fountainguy97]

NAM'd

[Save the itchy algae!]

Testing…
..I hate Tapatalk


.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

NAM'd

Hope that comes to fruition. It would make it easier to handle the cutter next Weekend. Carvers made good points regarding it . It could pay dividends afterward. 

[Carvers Gap]

Day 6-10 analogs:

19881226
19890107
19511231
19620112
19680101
19510101
19720102
19640108
20070111
19701222

Day 8-14 analogs:

19680103
19710107
19760103
19960128
20080116
19590101
19811225
19630111
20020117
19620112

Some decent analogs there.  BUT, I don't like seeing 88-89 analogs.  Easily, that is my least favorite winter.  The GEFS ext does provide credence this evening for those analogs.  They are very warm after the 20th or so....hold up.  They are still running, and have blinked.  I thought they were going to do what they did last night, and lock the ridge over the East.  They don't.  They go to the GEPS/EPS look w/ slightly more ridging between the cold shots.  I do like the 1996 analog in the d8-14 group.  I think 2008 wasn't bad either.

[Carvers Gap]

Interestingly, Jan '64 made it on the analog list.  We had used that analog this fall.  It was one of the extreme drought Nino Sept-Oct analogs which showed up.  Kind of cool that it has shown up in the winter analog list for part of January.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I’m glad 14 of those were before I was born. Probably not a bad sign. 

[Carvers Gap]

And these are the changes which are starting to show up on the GEFS ext(which was terrible last night).  Look at the changes. Still a LONG WAY to go, but nice to see ensembles have continuity this far out.  New run is on the left.  EPO ridge, NAO ridge, and likely the PV trapped(use some imagination on that last one)........

 

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Day 6-10 analogs:

19881226
19890107
19511231
19620112
19680101
19510101
19720102
19640108
20070111
19701222

Day 8-14 analogs:

19680103
19710107
19760103
19960128
20080116
19590101
19811225
19630111
20020117
19620112

Some decent analogs there.  BUT, I don't like seeing 88-89 analogs.  Easily, that is my least favorite winter.  The GEFS ext does provide credence this evening for those analogs.  They are very warm after the 20th or so....hold up.  They are still running, and have blinked.  I thought they were going to do what they did last night, and lock the ridge over the East.  They don't.  They go to the GEPS/EPS look w/ slightly more ridging between the cold shots.  I do like the 1996 analog in the d8-14 group.  I think 2008 wasn't bad either.

Feb 1989 was cold and snowy here. It has an early cold/wintery period, a warm up and a frigid and snowy close. We ended the month was just over 13 inches of snowfall. We had a 3 inch, 2 inch and 7 inch event  over the last 10 days of the month. We were roughly -3 for Feb even with a major mid month warm up.

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Feb 1989 was cold and snowy here. It has an early cold/wintery period, a warm up and a frigid and snowy close. We ended the month was just over 13 inches of snowfall. We had a 3 inch, 2 inch and 7 inch event  over the last 10 days of the month. We were roughly -3 for Feb even with a major mid month warm up.

Yeah, that was the only good Month of that Winter. You outdone us here by about about 3 inches. The end of the Month one was the biggest. I think it was the 25th. 5 inches here . Would have been an inch or two more were not for it sleeting over an hour at the beginning. Ice pellets that mounted to about half inch. You probably had all Snow with that one. 

[Matthew70]

Happy New Years to everyone!  I hope it’s a wonderful year for ALL.  I hope we all get a big snow before winter is over. 

[BlunderStorm]

On 12/30/2023 at 1:24 PM, BuCoVaWx said:

I'm about 20-30 miles west of @BlunderStorm, but I remember as recently as 2018 (if I'm not mistaken) Abingdon received nearly a foot of snow, possibly more. We ended up with a cold rain. Very wild how things can differ in such short distances.

I may or may not recall that one, but I will say Clinch/Beartown mountain influences a lot of the weather. Also Big A to a lesser extent in the Honaker area. Downsloping can easily kill an otherwise excellent set-up. All the same it can trap colder air in the upper Clinch valley and I can cash in.

[John1122]

The Canadian is a severe severe winter storm next weekend with a lot of freezing rain/snow. The UKIE is also a major snow event for the Plateau and west. The GFS isn't having it still though. I'd guess the GFS is probably better and the more likely result but I'll hope not.

[John1122]

The Euro is also onboard for a major winter storm next weekend. I hope we can reel one of these in instead of having it collapse.

[Matthew70]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is also onboard for a major winter storm next weekend. I hope we can reel one of these in instead of having it collapse.

Thats a pretty good trio to have on our side.  

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

Feb 1989 was cold and snowy here. It has an early cold/wintery period, a warm up and a frigid and snowy close. We ended the month was just over 13 inches of snowfall. We had a 3 inch, 2 inch and 7 inch event  over the last 10 days of the month. We were roughly -3 for Feb even with a major mid month warm up.

Ah, edit, to clarify...I was talking about Dec 89, Jan 90, Dec 90.  I misread the analog package.  December '89 was ~ 9.0 w/ 1" of snow, and then winter went poof.  Jan and Feb of '90 were both +5.0 roughly.

It was terrible in Knoxville.  Brutally old start and probably the second biggest miss of a winter storm in my lifetime.  You all did well on the Plateau...Knoxville not so much.  The warm-up after the cold shot was incredible.   Up to that point in my life, I didn't know winter could end that early.  The bigger concern with that analog showing up for late December and January...the flip warm right about then(or shortly thereafter) was pretty staggering.  That is the main reason I don't like to see it.  I don't like that winter though.  It reminded me a lot of last winter.

Now, to the actual analog.  LOL.  I was in Kingsport for 88-89.  It was pretty meh, not terrible and not great....but would gladly take it nowadays.  Kingsport was maybe roughly -1 for December but +5 for January.  Yes, February did have 11" of snow, but that was pretty much it for the winter....and well BN(speaking of snow) for the winter if I remember correctly for the time.  Interesting to see a very warm January analog show-up in the analog package.  But that analog might be there for what would came next....warm flipping to cold.  88-89 would be the last good winter until 92-93.....and it wasn't overly good compared to recent past winters of the time(off the top of my head).  But it was a late starter which this current one could be....if it starts.

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z Euro and CMC, as others have noted, are a clean pass for next weekend.  JB noted last night that he had doubts as to weather that system could cut northward(like the GFS is still doing).  Just going to have to watch the trend.  We also don't want it trending OTS.  That is a good look for folks above 2,000' on the Euro and icy for a lot of folks on the CMC.

[Carvers Gap]

Still a lot to work out.  If we get any type of handoff, that is probably not good for most of the valley.  That said, NW TN could do well w/ the GFS version.  The GFS is holding steadfast to a cutter.  The other two models trended to clean pass(little to no energy transfer).

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that was the only good Month of that Winter. You outdone us here by about about 3 inches. The end of the Month one was the biggest. I think it was the 25th. 5 inches here . Would have been an inch or two more were not for it sleeting over an hour at the beginning. Ice pellets that mounted to about half inch. You probably had all Snow with that one. 

88-89 was probably the first winter when I knew that winter was changing, and summer for that matter as well.  Having grown-up during the 70s and 80s, 88-89 was ok for a winter...but the very late start(flirted with a non winter for a time) and following very warm January were pretty big red flags in hindsight, and red flags even then.  I remember asking my dad if winter had changed.  Again, as I noted in my response to John, I would gladly take that winter today.  Then, it was pretty meh.  

But I originally misread the analog as 89-90.

At the time, the 88-89 winter also followed a wicked hot stretch of summer at TRI.  So, even to the modest weather follower, things were "off" that year.  I remember, up until recently, that summer as being the hottest summer of my life.   It wasn't the averages that were off, but the multiple 4-5 day stretches of 95-101F temps that were rough.

[Carvers Gap]

It looks like all global ensembles take some energy into central TN, and have a subsequent energy handoff.  I hope this is a case where operationals are leading the way.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

Looks like the Euro has some Machine Learning models for some basic parameters available to the public for free. New models to hug I guess. Looks like they have trended more S and E with the track for the weekend storm. Could change though and these are experimental. 

1 hour ago, WxMan1 said:

SIAP...This will be the first 'test' for the growing list of machine learning runs from the ECMWF suite. Verification has been pretty good, especially for some. Not going to get the specifics (i.e. ptype, snow totals, etc.), but at least we can see what the ML runs have in terms of the track into the medium range.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]}

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are some of the plots for MSLP and 850 hPa wind centered on Saturday AM around midnight:

 

 

 

 

[tnweathernut]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

It looks like all global ensembles take some energy into central TN, and have a subsequent energy handoff.  I hope this is a case where operationals are leading the way.

Has been a thorn in the side of snow lovers here in east TN numerous times over the years.  Any semblance of energy west of the apps would really hurt chances of a winter event for those east of the plateau (except maybe SW VA), outside of a mixed precip to rain type deal with really good timing (i.e. overnight/early am arrival).  Would really like to see a consolidated low pass well to the southeast of our area.  Without an unusually cold high structure over the top, a piece of energy west of the apps will make a winter event almost impossible to work for those outside of elevation east of the plateau or the CAD favored regions east of the Apps.
 

We may get this type of setup later in the month if some of the ensembles showing the polar vortex trapping underneath blocking have some truth to them.  It’s fun to imagine an active southern branch with very cold air trapped and pressing into a good chunk of the country.  This winter already feels much different than last, even if we don’t score a winter storm over the next week.

[PowellVolz]

Has been a thorn in the side of snow lovers here in east TN numerous times over the years.  Any semblance of energy west of the apps would really hurt chances of a winter event for those east of the plateau (except maybe SW VA), outside of a mixed precip to rain type deal with really good timing (i.e. overnight/early am arrival).  Would really like to see a consolidated low pass well to the southeast of our area.  Without an unusually cold high structure over the top, a piece of energy west of the apps will make a winter event almost impossible to work for those outside of elevation east of the plateau or the CAD favored regions east of the Apps.
 
We may get this type of setup later in the month if some of the ensembles showing the polar vortex trapping underneath blocking have some truth to them.  It’s fun to imagine an active southern branch with very cold air trapped and pressing into a good chunk of the country.  This winter already feels much different than last, even if we don’t score a winter storm over the next week.

At least the mods are showing mostly rain for the valley. It would be a lot worse if the R/S line was on 40 like it usually is. I’m sure this will be all over the place, Euro will likely completely lose the storm for 12 hours and then bring it back.


.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GEFS ensemble has flipped quite warm in the medium and long range....big break from the 0z run.  Just a heads up.  And yes, that model takes the high amplitude, tour of the MJO warm phases....and absolutely crawls.  So, we are back to that with that model.  The GEPS/EPS combo is still very cold and very different at the surface and at 500.  Bit of a model war brewing, and it will decide the fate of winter. 

I have heard that modeling really doesn't take into account the MJO during d10-15, but gives it more weight inside of d10.  That might not be correct information, but maybe I read it in the MA forum.  If so, that makes sense why it is finally correcting to its own MJO.  Its operational has been leading the way for days.

[PowellVolz]

Weather is a lot like Tennessee athletics. Just when you feel like you are headed in the right direction, you end up with 33 and rain.


.

[Carvers Gap]

I do like what Bob Chill noted in the MA forum, chasing snow in December is pretty much futile at lower elevations and typically has been with the exception of the anomalous decade of the 2010s.  He noted that his winter runs a pretty similar duration, just that it is typically Jan-March now.  In other words, winter tracking begins now.  Anything during December is a bonus.

As for the GEFS, it is all over the place in the long range.  I am not worried about it at the moment.  I just wanted to make that note.  

[Carvers Gap]

That would be a major score for the GEFS by the way as it has no support from the CFSv2 or other global ensembles.  It wouldn't be without precedent, but it is on an island for now.  It is completely missing the post Jan10 cold shot, which is a big difference.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z and 6z GEFS lose the NAO quite quickly after the 10th.  Other modeling doesn't have that.  With the MJO going to crap, we are going to need the NAO.  It is a great example of what can happen if we don't get help from the Atlantic during that time frame.  IMHO, it breaks it down too quickly which is not uncommon.   But, we shall see.  LR modeling has had the 15th-25th as a warm time frame for several weeks.  Only recently, have global ensembles cooled that timeframe off.

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

88-89 was probably the first winter when I knew that winter was changing, and summer for that matter as well.  Having grown-up during the 70s and 80s, 88-89 was ok for a winter...but the very late start(flirted with a non winter for a time) and following very warm January were pretty big red flags in hindsight, and red flags even then.  I remember asking my dad if winter had changed.  Again, as I noted in my response to John, I would gladly take that winter today.  Then, it was pretty meh.  

But I originally misread the analog as 89-90.

At the time, the 88-89 winter also followed a wicked hot stretch of summer at TRI.  So, even to the modest weather follower, things were "off" that year.  I remember, up until recently, that summer as being the hottest summer of my life.   It wasn't the averages that were off, but the multiple 4-5 day stretches of 95-101F temps that were rough.

Yeah, Summer '88 still holds the Record for hottest I've ever recorded. 101. The extended stretches of extreme heat as you mentioned were unreal! 

[John1122]

If this goes anything like normal, the GFS will go all in on the Euro/UKIE/Canadian solution and as soon as it does, the Euro/UKIE will lose it.