jaxjagman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Still don't' believe the Euro is right with the MJO.it's having distructive interference from the CCKW in the Maritime right now and in the end it will be in the WH much quicker than its showing 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Still don't' believe the Euro is right with the MJO.it's having distructive interference from the CCKW in the Maritime right now and in the end it will be in the WH much quicker than its showing If you're right, going to be some missed or quickly changing forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 15 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: If you're right, going to be some missed or quickly changing forecasts. We will see,but it sure looks like its gonna be more progressive,MJO 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 hours ago, jaxjagman said: We will see,but it sure looks like its gonna be more progressive,MJO We want that MJO to boogie during the next couple of weeks. Good sign. Plots look quicker into 7 this morning on CPC, but then it dies out(which has been an error all season across modeling). Maybe we can get into phase 8 by the end of week 1....would be huge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We want that MJO to boogie during the next couple of weeks. Good sign. Plots look quicker into 7 this morning on CPC, but then it dies out(which has been an error all season across modeling). Maybe we can get into phase 8 by the end of week 1....would be huge. The way things have progressed so far this season my bet is on a shorter warm period. We just haven't seen the torches this season like has been advertised in the long to medium range. Now yes we will definitely warm up and after the very cold week we are having I'm not surprised at all by this upcoming week or two of warmth. Now I could be wrong but I'm just thinking about this seasons pattern recognition. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: We want that MJO to boogie during the next couple of weeks. Good sign. Plots look quicker into 7 this morning on CPC, but then it dies out(which has been an error all season across modeling). Maybe we can get into phase 8 by the end of week 1....would be huge. I'm hoping for convection to fire in phase 1 or beginning of phase 2. Be best case scenario to have somewhat of a cold active February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I'm hoping for convection to fire in phase 1 or beginning of phase 2. Be best case scenario to have somewhat of a cold active February Cosgrove sounded concerned this morning re: severe wx next week and heavy rain to our south. Said we should see a storm flip the pattern back cold if it can drive to a high enough latitude. Jax’s MJO post last night is optimal. Boone is correct that warm-ups have been brief since Christmas. Jack has been money this year w the MJO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 48 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Cosgrove sounded concerned this morning re: severe wx next week and heavy rain to our south. Said we should see a storm flip the pattern back cold if it can drive to a high enough latitude. Jax’s MJO post last night is optimal. Boone is correct that warm-ups have been brief since Christmas. Jack has been money this year w the MJO. If it gets to 8 we should then see a nice PNA Ridge set up. We really need those higher Lats in our favor as Coz was alluding to. That would help with the Southern trek and speed of Systems thus upping the ante of Big Dogs. If the MJO were to get stuck in the warm phases and blocking doesn't reset it could be another Flooduary. We do have a wildcard at least . The SSW. It should revamp the blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: If it gets to 8 we should then see a nice PNA Ridge set up. We really need those higher Lats in our favor as Coz was alluding to. That would help with the Southern trek and speed of Systems thus upping the ante of Big Dogs. If the MJO were to get stuck in the warm phases and blocking doesn't reset it could be another Flooduary. We do have a wildcard at least . The SSW. It should revamp the blocking. I definitely don't want a warm February. I want a few more opportunities at snow and ice here. Whatever is needed because we are fixing to get into that timeframe where sun angle makes a big difference here, especially mid Feb on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 14 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Still don't' believe the Euro is right with the MJO.it's having distructive interference from the CCKW in the Maritime right now and in the end it will be in the WH much quicker than its showing Keep us updated with those maps please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I believe Eric Webb found that southeast snow events in February were more frequent in Phase 7 of the MJO than some of the more traditionally wintery phases. That would imply that it was cold here during Phase 7 in February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 34 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: If it gets to 8 we should then see a nice PNA Ridge set up. We really need those higher Lats in our favor as Coz was alluding to. That would help with the Southern trek and speed of Systems thus upping the ante of Big Dogs. If the MJO were to get stuck in the warm phases and blocking doesn't reset it could be another Flooduary. We do have a wildcard at least . The SSW. It should revamp the blocking. I fully expect to see modeling go completely nuts within a few days. That SSW should begin to be noticeable in the troposphere shortly (in LR modeling). The first thing I usually notice is a western Atlantic ridge which creates abnormal warming along the East Coast. That seems to be a very common response, and that is actually what splits the PV at lower levels. The SOI is also way, way out of sync with the Nino - JB was talking about that recently. It is almost a Nina state which is what we don't want for Feb. If it crashes, hang on tight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 15 minutes ago, John1122 said: I believe Eric Webb found that southeast snow events in February were more frequent in Phase 7 of the MJO than some of the more traditionally wintery phases. That would imply that it was cold here during Phase 7 in February. Interesting. Yeah, I have never hated 7...but the CPC temp maps imply warmth here. I have always associated it with cold during later winter as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It was in an El Nino, phase 7/8 were the most likely to produce snow in NC of any phase but the c.o.d was best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Interesting. Yeah, I have never hated 7...but the CPC temp maps imply warmth here. I have always associated it with cold during later winter as well. He actually made the statement that the MJO heading for 7/8 in February was one of the reasons for hope in the long range. It appears that 2 may be the worst phase for winter storms in El Nino years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It was in an El Nino, phase 7/8 were the most likely to produce snow in NC of any phase but the c.o.d was best. Don't think this has been a true niño. Hasn't acted like one totally. More of a mix of niña and niño. Most niños typically don't go into the warm phases of mjo. If they do, it's weak phases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Larry in SE Sub and main Forum backed those findings with tons of Data. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: He actually made the statement that the MJO heading for 7/8 in February was one of the reasons for hope in the long range. It appears that 2 may be the worst phase for winter storms in El Nino years. Interesting. Yeah, this most recent winter storm occurred as we moved from 3 into 4. 3 is also a decent phase for winter storms. I need to get my hands on an MJO tendency plot for El Nino winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Interesting. Yeah, this most recent winter storm occurred as we moved from 3 into 4. 3 is also a decent phase for winter storms. I need to get my hands on an MJO tendency plot for El Nino winters. His chart was for North Carolina and while we can score in different ways and often do, most of the time we're all cold at the same time and the storm track that lends itself to NC snow events most is miller A storms. It was I believe an 8 percent chance in 7/8, 5 in 1, 3 in 2 during El Nino. It would take a lot of research to do it here, if had a way to get historical MJO phases I'd try to see how we stacked up. C.O.D is king. It's a 12 percent probability in Nino years. In nino Feb 2015 we were 8 to 7 to C.O.D when big winter hit in the second half of Feb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Don't think this has been a true niño. Hasn't acted like one totally. More of a mix of niña and niño. Most niños typically don't go into the warm phases of mjo. If they do, it's weak phases. Yes. I remember you talking about this earlier this winter. Some strong and interesting debates on this ranging from climate to geological influence. There should be more rain/thunderstorm activity near the dateline as the Nino water is warm. I have been unable to get a handle on why that is. Very, very odd for convection not to be there....could lead to future drought as that set-up is really what replenishes our water in the SE. The ENSO signature for SSTs is definitely there. However, the SOI near Australia is not in sync at all and is more Nina like. I "think" JB shared that '78 had a similar MJO rotation to this winter. The PDO is also part of that fabric. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: His chart was for North Carolina and while we can score in different ways and often do, most of the time we're all cold at the same time and the storm track that lends itself to NC snow events most is miller A storms. It was I believe an 8 percent chance in 7/8, 5 in 1, 3 in 2 during El Nino. It would take a lot of research to do it here, if had a way to get historical MJO phases I'd try to see how we stacked up. C.O.D is king. It's a 12 percent probability in Nino years. In nino Feb 2015 we were 8 to 7 to C.O.D when big winter hit in the second half of Feb. Feb 2015 into March 2015 was good here. We got three winter events in that timeframe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 hours ago, Met1985 said: The way things have progressed so far this season my bet is on a shorter warm period. We just haven't seen the torches this season like has been advertised in the long to medium range. Now yes we will definitely warm up and after the very cold week we are having I'm not surprised at all by this upcoming week or two of warmth. Now I could be wrong but I'm just thinking about this seasons pattern recognition. Great post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 This is the Jan30-Feb1 timeframe which I mentioned. I don't see anything on deterministic modeling yet. However, that is a great set-up if real. The CMC has more ridging underneath, but maybe watch for a trend for this to deepen if real. This was on Weeklies runs forever, and has washed out a bit lately. However, the GFS would likely pick this up at range first or the Canadian (more ridging over the SE). It is a quick hitter, so timing the STJ with this is important. That is about a 48 hour window for something decent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Interesting. Yeah, I have never hated 7...but the CPC temp maps imply warmth here. I have always associated it with cold during later winter as well. Yeah, I wonder what a ph 7 during Nino would look like.?.. Apparently, the enhanced STJ somehow throws the typical MJO alignment off kilter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Interestingly, the CFSv2 seasonal has recently been less than enthusiastic about Feb. However, it threw this out this morning. If that is with a warm start for week 1, then that is signaling a pretty frigid second half of the month. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Interestingly, the CFSv2 seasonal has recently been less than enthusiastic about Feb. However, it threw this out this morning. If that is with a warm start for week 1, then that is signaling a pretty frigid second half of the month. If correct, big dog opportunitIES ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is the Jan30-Feb1 timeframe which I mentioned. I don't see anything on deterministic modeling yet. However, that is a great set-up if real. The CMC has more ridging underneath, but maybe watch for a trend for this to deepen if real. This was on Weeklies runs forever, and has washed out a bit lately. However, the GFS would likely pick this up at range first or the Canadian (more ridging over the SE). It is a quick hitter, so timing the STJ with this is important. That is about a 48 hour window for something decent. I think the sentiment is that we get a quick west coast ridge and then the jet extends and hopefully the mjo gets into colder phases and SSW kicks in for us later. Just guessing lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I think the sentiment is that we get a quick west coast ridge and then the jet extends and hopefully the mjo gets into colder phases and SSW kicks in for us later. Just guessing lol Reel it in, man!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I like Feb 15-17 as a return to sustained cold. If it is earlier, that is a bonus! Otherwise, I think we get very cold last two weeks of that month and first week of March. The Euro Weeklies look very good in that regard. I still am hopeful for some cold around Feb1(quick hitter). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I like Feb 15-17 as a return to sustained cold. If it is earlier, that is a bonus! Otherwise, I think we get very cold last two weeks of that month and first week of March. The Euro Weeklies look very good in that regard. I still am hopeful for some cold around Feb1(quick hitter). That would be akin to what happened in Feb. 2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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