January Medium-Long Range Discussion

[Daniel Boone]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

There is some can kicking of the cold...I just haven't posted in a bit.  It is more like weeks 2-4 of Feb as the MJO is gonna get toasty after the 22nd.  We were gonna have to pay that toll at some point.  It is possible that we may have a cold shot around the 30th, warm-up, and then hit the cold skids during the second week of Feb.  I do urge a bit of caution to new posters (not you, Shawn).  Originally, Jan 10-20th looked very warm.  That can got kicked about ten days.  So, any kind of strong cutter or storm is gonna bring down a lot of cold air, even during what looks like a warm-up timeframe.  The first week or two of March could be cold but the jury is still out.  This winter reminds me a lot of 95-96 which had a big storm, a warm-up, and then got cold again.  I am maybe a little less confident that Feb is gonna be cold than I was a few weeks ago, but still reasonably confident.

Yeah, I'm a bit concerned about February as well as the MJO has me skiddish. It may set off that Firehose into Canada again. Probably not but, possible. IF it were to, would probably delay cold till later in February. Hopefully, that won't happen. Otoh, maybe the warm phases get knocked off kilter by other Drivers as happened in some Winter's of yore. 

[Carvers Gap]

@weathertree4u2, I moved my reply over to the pattern discussion thread as I didn't realize I was in the next storm thread.  Here is the reply to your question.

I would say I am very confident of a sharp warm-up next week - spring like stuff.  The return of cold continues to get can kicked.  I am much less confident today about February than I have been since June - much less.  I would say that we get a brief, but sharp cold shot from Jan30-Feb3, and then another warmup(not to the degree next week will be).  The duration of that second warm-up will hold the fate of winter for most.  The MJO is forecast to stall in phase 6 which is the warmest phase of the MJO, and there is no running from phase 6 - it is going to warm-up.  Final hurrah of winter should be the final two weeks of February(maybe first week of March) as the MJO should be favorable then, and that is two weeks behind schedule.  The CFSv2 would end winter as its MJO plot rotates and stalls in the warm phases.  

There is a strat split, and we are going to need to roll the dice(I know many don't like that reshuffle) with that reshuffle.  As we have seen this week, sustained cold is the easiest way to winter.  Until we get the MJO to cooperate again, it is thread the needle the rest of the way. So the strat split may be our best option so to speak.  With the strat split, we should its effects 2-3 weeks down the road.  I would encourage everyone to read back through the winter discussion to see the order of regions it tends to focus on.  This current cold snap is probably due to strat warming during mid-late December.  I would look for the NAO to reappear.

Overall, and modeling doesn't show this just yet....I bet the upcoming warm-up is more of a thaw.  This winter just has the feeling that it is going to be back after this week.....I could be wrong.

[Carvers Gap]

When they are setting records like this in Montana, you know it is gonna get cold downstream.    The are breaking OLD records with this current outbreak.

 

[Carvers Gap]

@Daniel Boone, I am going to put the response to your MJO thoughts.  I didn't realize I was in the storm thread.  Also, check out those temps in Montana from the last three days!

The strat split brought us this current outbreak and also likely this weekend's.   We are going to need another one I think.  I would suggest that the way that we have dodged warm phases in the past is with that set-up.  I think winter returns(JB mentioned it today) due to that reason in part.  Plus, I think the NAO will re-fire.  I do think what looked like an early start to spring (March) is in serious peril if this warm-up has any duration.  

[Carvers Gap]

Wind chill advisories have been posted for tonight for pretty much the entire forum area.  For TRI, they expect wind chills to get to -15F.   The GFS was very close to these numbers a 7-10 days ago.  This probably won't be as bad as December of '22, but not sure I could tell the difference once it is that cold!  This weekend likely will be colder.

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as
  15 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 7 AM EST this
  morning. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 5 PM this afternoon
  to noon EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The cold wind
  chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are not
  taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Even after snow and freezing drizzle have
  ended, icy hazardous travel is expected today and tonight,
  especially on untreated roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Daniel Boone, I am going to put the response to your MJO thoughts.  I didn't realize I was in the storm thread.  Also, check out those temps in Montana from the last three days!

The strat split brought us this current outbreak and also likely this weekend's.   We are going to need another one I think.  I would suggest that the way that we have dodged warm phases in the past is with that set-up.  I think winter returns(JB mentioned it today) due to that reason in part.  Plus, I think the NAO will re-fire.  I do think what looked like an early start to spring (March) is in serious peril if this warm-up has any duration.  

Agree completely. 

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Agree completely. 

I am not even sure that we are going to see the cold shot around Jan 30th.  The Euro is more aggressive in getting out of the warm phases of the MJO, but I tend to lean GFS/GMON for MJO plots.  Those are mid-February before things are fully reset.  The strat split occurring now could get us in business by the first week of Feb.  Model mayhem is probably about to occur.  

@Holston_River_Rambler, got any strat split goodies for us?  I literally haven't looked at it today.  I hope the folks I am reading are accurate!!!!  LOL.  Cause' I haven't looked.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was actually just about to toss up some MJO pics so we can see how they verify down the road:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hiwawari satellite is definitely the old La Nina Maritime Continent look we are used to for the past several winters:

Just looking at the convection over Darwin, I wouldn't be surprised if the SOI was very positive.

Just check and it is +31, lol. 

I think the RMM plots have been consistently trying to kill off the MJO, only to have it kick back up and continue along its merry pace. 

Looks like we will probably get another Pac jet extension after a East Asia mountain torque again, like we got back in Dec. Big high settling down over east Asia and a low fires up in the NW Pac:

 

This one doesn't look like it will be quite as intense as the last one. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Now, finally, to the strat stuff. Here is the latest GFS:

10mb

50mb:

 

Overall I would say it continues to look discombobulated and uncomfortable. MJO going through 6 at high amplitude will keep the pressure on. 

Continued warming over Greenland might be conducive to another -NAO once and if it drips down. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'm honestly kind of intrigued by the long range ensembles showing some nice west coast ridging for what seems like the first time in a long time. 

 

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I was actually just about to toss up some MJO pics so we can see how they verify down the road:

 

 

I'd love to see that continue into 7. Yesterday it was curling back into 6 on the Euro, it looks better at least, today. 

[jaxjagman]

GTH Outlook Discussion

Last Updated - 01/16/24

Valid - 01/24/24 - 02/06/24

Following a period of weakening over the Indian Ocean earlier this month, the MJO became much more organized during the past week. Latest RMM observations show the MJO signal propagating eastward into the Maritime Continent (phase 4), and steadily gaining amplitude, which is well reflected by a reemerging wave-1 pattern in the 200-hPa velocity potential anomaly fields. A large uptick in MJO amplitude is heavily favored in the dynamical models during the next week, which appears to be tied to constructive interference with a convectively coupled Kelvin Wave propagating out of the Indian Ocean. This wave phasing is likely to promote widespread enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent, which has been otherwise persistently dominated by a suppressed convective El Nino response. Even with the MJO continuing to destructively interfere with the low frequency El Nino conditions, intraseasonal activity is largely favored to remain coherent during the next several weeks. Very good agreement exists in the RMM forecasts depicting a high amplitude event propagating eastward into the Western Pacific during the next two weeks, where the MJO looks to eventually constructively interfere again with base state over the Equatorial Pacific. Ensemble spread increases in the extended range, however many solutions (especially the GEFS) continue to maintain a high amplitude event, taking the MJO signal back into the Western Hemisphere by the first or second week of February. A healthy, eastward propagating MJO is expected to provide increasingly favorable conditions for Tropical Cyclone (TC) development over parts of the southern Indian Ocean, as well as the Western Pacific on both sides of the Equator. And in light of aforementioned convective pattern reversal favored over the Maritime Continent in the near term, this could induce a stronger MJO teleconnection in the extratropics downstream. Wintertime Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent MJO events typically lead to the development of anomalous mid-level ridging with warmer than normal temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. This is consistent with the latest week-2 guidance, however there is also both model and historical support for the associated anomalous mid-level ridging to retrograde over western North America with time, potentially allowing for the return of colder than normal temperatures over parts of the U.S. heading into February.

[jaxjagman]

CFS has been much faster with the signal,shows it getting into the WH before or about the next 2-weeks 

[Carvers Gap]

Long range update....

I am now confident that we will not dodge the warmth of the MJO warm phases.  Jan22nd to roughly mid-Feb should be much above normal in terms of temps.  There was some hope the NAO would hold out, but it appears that will not happen.  We may get one cold shot(or two) embedded for some small windows for wintry precip.  Jan30-Feb 1 would be an outside shot.  

So, bad news out of the way first.  The current strat warm should begin to rock modeling very soon in the extended.  Just watch for big red balls of fire to show-up at 500mb at higher latitudes.   The strat split cold dump(if it goes into North America) should arrive right as the MJO rolls into phase 8 during mid-Feb.  That means bitterly cold air could dump eastward.  But beware of calls for cold prior to mid-Feb.  It could happen, because the MJO could speed up a bit.   I think the target for a return to cold (after this weekend) would be the end of the second week of Feb.   I think the cold should last about 14-20 days at that point.  I would think we would have equal(or better) chances to the timeframe we are about to exit.

So, to sum up.  A pattern change will quickly be under way for next week and last roughly 3 weeks beginning on Monday.  That is a bit short(for a pattern change) as I generally think most patterns run 4-6 weeks.  So, it is a bit of wish casting on my part for the warm pattern to depart early, but there is some model support for that shorter pattern window of three weeks - maybe more of a thaw.  Likely the pattern will get can kicked a bit more and get to the 4 week window.  The high amplitude MJO rotation is a big change in modeling, and not a positive one.  But it is what it is.  The worst case would be a stall in phase 6, and that is an outside possibility.  I think a more likely trend would be from the MJO to get to phase 8 a bit early.  

I do think the foothills and E TN mountains will score during late Feb and early March.  That potential cold pattern should be slightly East of where it is now, and the alignment of phase8/strat split/ shortening wavelengths should be money....but we are going to have to wait a bit.  JB discussed some  of that last night or this AM.  I came to the same conclusion on my own, but also wanted to give a nod there.

I am paying attention to the cold shot at the end of the month though.  For now, I don't see much potential, but that could change.

[Carvers Gap]

And one last note, originally modeling had Jan 10-20th as being very warm and then flipped cold.  Things can change. February modeling is notoriously difficult to nail down as wavelengths shorten.  So, if the MJO speeds up(possible) or dodges phase 6(almost impossible at this point)...things could change.  Also, if the strat split works down to the troposphere quickly(and that could happen) all bets are off.  In this case, we need the strat split to wreck the warm window....and there is an outside shot that it could.  For now, I think cold February forecasts in the East are probably in trouble.  It is more of numerical deal as to why those would fail.  The window for cold is now more like mid-Feb to mid-March - so the four week window is staggered over two months instead of being centered on Feb.

[Daniel Boone]

Yeah, MJO looks strong in warm phases. Those heated waters out there just continue every year now. Really don't know the exact cause. Could be underwater Volcanic activity. Some speculate a byproduct of Climate change. Whatever the reason, it is what it is and it continues to lean Eastern US Winters on the overall mild side. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And one last note, originally modeling had Jan 10-20th as being very warm and then flipped cold.  Things can change.

Indeed! Here was the Dec 26th run of the Euro Weeklies for Jan 15-22:

Right after this, the Euro Weekly runs for Jan 15-22 progressively got much colder. Just one week later (Jan 2), there was this for the same period:

 

And here’s the final map for the same period, which was released two days ago (Jan 15th):

 

So, in hindsight, the Weeklies map released on Dec 26th ended up a humongous warm bust and it was issued only 20 days prior to the start of the very cold week! When combined with the tendency for somewhat of a warm bias on the Weeklies, there’s no telling what mid Feb+ will bring.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, GaWx said:

Indeed! Here was the Dec 26th run of the Euro Weeklies for Jan 15-22:

Right after this, the Euro Weekly runs for Jan 15-22 progressively got much colder. Just one week later (Jan 2), there was this for the same period:

 

And here’s the final map for the same period, which was released two days ago (Jan 15th):

 

So, in hindsight, the Weeklies map released on Dec 26th ended up a humongous warm bust and it was issued only 20 days prior to the start of the very cold week! When combined with the tendency for somewhat of a warm bias on the Weeklies, there’s no telling what mid Feb+ will bring.

The current Weeklies(Euro) are showing a pretty good cold sign for mid-Feb for sure, and also the quick cold shot at the end of the month.  I think the Weeklies(GEFS ex and Euro ext) missed the mid-Jan cold snap, because the MJO stalled in phase 3 and made an unexpected rotation back into 2.   My main concern is an upcoming stall in 6, and there are hints of it both on MJO plots and predicted prolonged storminess over the MC.  The MJO is already outpacing amplitude predictions in many ways.  The one thing which could break the MJO warmth would be the ongoing strat split.  It has wrecked many potential good patterns, but it can also wreck bad patterns.  Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see the MJO rotation be quicker either(as opposed to a stall).  Plus, shortening wavelengths during Feb create havoc.  But for now, there are some really good teleconnections coming together around mid-Feb through mid-March.  

And then there is the old saying (could be JB) where it goes, "It snows where it wants to snow."  This means that places which get snow tend to see the repeated.  

[Carvers Gap]

31 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, MJO looks strong in warm phases. Those heated waters out there just continue every year now. Really don't know the exact cause. Could be underwater Volcanic activity. Some speculate a byproduct of Climate change. Whatever the reason, it is what it is and it continues to lean Eastern US Winters on the overall mild side. 

There is lots of earthquake activity in that area(MC) and also the underwater volcano which went off.  Probably some of both(climate and geologic).  The IO is causing a lot of the MJO rotations through warmer phases.  What doesn't make sense is that the warm water on the dateline is not producing more convection - that I don't understand.  

The PDO in my opinion the main issue in regards to troughs not liking the eastern half of the country.  Is that directly related to the MJO and ENSO - probably?  

January will probably end-up right at normal for TRI.  The last week of the month will take the BN departures and push them towards normal I think.  Feb will be the tiebreaker.  

Pretty normal El Nino winter so far, don't you think?  Warm start.  Flip mid-winter, and fun and games to end it.  I am actually surprised to see below zero (edit) temps here w/ El Nino.  

And I should note that I do feel this is a true El Nino, but there are some things which argue against it.  I do think the NAO shows back up.  As it is notoriously(there is that word again) difficult to predict, I wouldn't be surprised to see another episode sooner than later.  And just thinking to the Weeklies bust that GaWx mentioned, it may well be that they busted because they missed the NAO episode.....anyway, just kind of thinking out loud on my part.

[Daniel Boone]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

There is lots of earthquake activity in that area(MC) and also the underwater volcano which went off.  Probably some of both(climate and geologic).  The IO is causing a lot of the MJO rotations through warmer phases.  What doesn't make sense is that the warm water on the dateline is not producing more convection - that I don't understand.  

The PDO in my opinion the main issue in regards to troughs not liking the eastern half of the country.  Is that directly related to the MJO and ENSO - probably?  

January will probably end-up right at normal for TRI.  The last week of the month will take the BN departures and push them towards normal I think.  Feb will be the tiebreaker.  

Pretty normal El Nino winter so far, don't you think?  Warm start.  Flip mid-winter, and fun and games to end it.  I am actually surprised to see below zero (edit) temps here w/ El Nino.  

And I should note that I do feel this is a true El Nino, but there are some things which argue against it.  I do think the NAO shows back up.  As it is notoriously(there is that word again) difficult to predict, I wouldn't be surprised to see another episode sooner than later.  And just thinking to the Weeklies bust that GaWx mentioned, it may well be that they busted because they missed the NAO episode.....anyway, just kind of thinking out loud on my part.

Yeah, definitely feeding off each other( PDO, MJO etc). If we can get some strong convection fire near the Dateline it could negate the MJO warm phases somewhat. Problem is, the domino effect of pressure from the dominant MJO is probably hampering convection development along Dateline. If we could get the MJO to the Dateline with little convection in the IO , that may reverse the pattern of that. Seems PDO has became closer to neutral last I checked so, may have a decent shot. If so, there is a possibility of a monster Snowstorm ( Maybe historical)for the area somewhere from mid February to mid March I believe, particularly if the SSW does it's thing with the NAO. 

[PowellVolz]

CFS has been much faster with the signal,shows it getting into the WH before or about the next 2-weeks 

Hearing some chatter about Dixie alley at the end of the month.


.

[John1122]

To me it looks like MJO forecasts are getting more favorable. Some still try to do the loop in 6, but others are pushing it to 7-8 faster.  One of them stalls it in 7. A few days ago the Euro mean was looping it in 6, that's gone now and it pushes across 7 and 8.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Hearing some chatter about Dixie alley at the end of the month.


.

If there is ever a set-up for severe, the look is there.  

[Carvers Gap]

The MJO stall is a tricky one.  Generally modeling has been in error in crashing the MJO into the COD or in slowing it down. However, we did just see one loop from 2-3.  I think we are going to see the MJO stall or slow in 6.  The OLR stuff for that timeframe seems to hint at an extended round of rainfall over the MC.  But climatology tends to win out.  And for now, Nino climatology should rule the roost and kick it eastward.  Most modeling supports a strong warm-up.  And honestly, that is to be expect after such extreme cold.  There are good signs that the pattern reloads after the 10th - maybe we can get that to move up a bit.  I tend to lean closer to the 17th of Feb, but we'll see.  That strat split has about a 2-3 week lag.  Its affects should be seen at lower latitudes in Asia and/or NA between Feb 5-10...so timing is good.  Should be some frigid stuff on LR extended modeling soon.  The Euro Weeklies have the signal for cold and stormy.  Normal, I would say everyone in the valley has decreasing chances as of mid-Feb...this year would be an exception in my book.

[Carvers Gap]

This winter reminds me a lot of 95-96.  It was showing up as an analog a few weeks back.  There were a couple of storms maybe 3 weeks apart(I can't remember exactly).  This may have that.  I agree w/ Boone that the Feb pattern could have a big dog or two as we rarely see teleconnections line-up that well.  I just wish the pattern hadn't been kicked back a week.

[PowellVolz]

If there is ever a set-up for severe, the look is there.  

The twitter Mets are talking about it. Reed was talking about it this morning


.

[John1122]

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This winter reminds me a lot of 95-96.  It was showing up as an analog a few weeks back.  There were a couple of storms maybe 3 weeks apart(I can't remember exactly).  This may have that.  I agree w/ Boone that the Feb pattern could have a big dog or two as we rarely see teleconnections line-up that well.  I just wish the pattern hadn't been kicked back a week.

2014 we got below 0 cold in early January then a two week warm up and got frigid again in late January.  So it was a double cold shot El Nino year.

[Carvers Gap]

Another timeframe the Weeklies (GEFS ext and Euro ext) appear to have busted on is the Jan 28 timeframe.  Originally, they had a trough slipping under the ridge, and setting off 4 weeks of cold.  At this point, that looks like a pretty bad miss.  Now, missing the long wave pattern is acceptable at this range, but the consequences are ->instead of a 5-7 day warm-up....we have a true pattern change for warm.  The length of that warm-up appears to be Jan 22 - Feb12 for now.  It would not surprise me for it to last a week longer or even to be quicker to turn cold....the pattern is that fluid around Feb 10th.  The MJO is ruling the roost w the NAO vanishing in a few days.   

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Another timeframe the Weeklies (GEFS ext and Euro ext) appear to have busted on is the Jan 28 timeframe.  Originally, they had a trough slipping under the ridge, and setting off 4 weeks of cold.  At this point, that looks like a pretty bad miss.  Now, missing the long wave pattern is acceptable at this range, but the consequences are ->instead of a 5-7 day warm-up....we have a true pattern change for warm.  The length of that warm-up appears to be Jan 22 - Feb12 for now.  It would not surprise me for it to last a week longer or even to be quicker to turn cold....the pattern is that fluid around Feb 10th.  The MJO is ruling the roost w the NAO vanishing in a few days.   

Yeah, the -NAO leaving is the killer.