fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 the GEFS is super aggressive on the 5 day threat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like we will warm up some again.MJO looks strong right now as it gets into the Maritime and WP,but we still should be under the influence of Nino,The SOI yesterday is showing more Nina 13 Jan 2024 1012.32 1002.65 23.84 -1.58 -5.00 12 Jan 2024 1011.79 1004.40 13.10 -2.63 -5.40 11 Jan 2024 1011.80 1005.55 7.73 -2.92 -5.60 10 Jan 2024 1010.99 1006.05 1.56 -2.96 -5.74 9 Jan 2024 1011.83 1006.90 1.51 -3.07 -5.76 8 Jan 2024 1013.35 1008.45 1.37 -3.46 -5.81 What the ensembles are showing into next week East China and Korea will see height rises for a few days then a trough will go through East Asia and just like earlier in the season the heights will fall again in those parts.It shouldnt be a brutal warm up least right now it seems in our parts 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 MRX has added the wording "moderate snow accumulation possible" to my forecast for next Thursday night already. That's normally their vernacular for 2-4 inches. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The middle to the end of December @Carvers Gap gave us 3 dates. The 7th, 12th and 22nd. He’s going 1 for 3 which is pretty incredible if you ask me. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z gfs says let's do this again. Would be incredibly high snow ratio. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Some form of system for that time frame, only the GFS is truly rolling big with it for now. The Euro was an Apps runner but we know the trend is SE this year vs the early runs. This current event was much further NW too when it started showing up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Looks like the CMC is lining up for a hit too at 12z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z GFS is a glacier. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 You know, we have an elk who has decided to live about 2 miles from my house. Maybe he knew something. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: You know, we have an elk who has decided to live about 2 miles from my house. Maybe he knew something. That is awesome. Didn’t u also have the fully black wooly worm? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That is awesome. Didn’t u also have the fully black wooly worm? The elk scared the ______ out of me one cold morning. It was just before Christmas. At first I thought some idiot had bought one in for a joke, but apparently he decided to come down from the Frozen Head/ Cross Mt area and he just chills out off of Fairview road between Coalfield and Mossy Grove. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The elk scared the ______ out of me one cold morning. It was just before Christmas. At first I thought some idiot had bought one in for a joke, but apparently he decided to come down from the Frozen Head/ Cross Mt area and he just chills out off of Fairview road between Coalfield and Mossy Grove. Advanced teleconnections. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Advanced teleconnections. Must be a running theme across the region! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Years ago there was an elk who was in the road by my house every day. TWRA came and put up a trap the size of a 5 horse trailer for it. They finally caught it and drove it all of three miles away and released it. The next day it was back. Now they only remove ones that are around the 4 lane in town that don't move on. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The GFS was a nice 1-3 with some 4+ areas for the Thursday/Friday event. The air behind it may be as cold or even colder than this. The heart of winter here is January 15th to February 15th. It's the coldest and snowiest time of winter here. You can hardly beat having a favorable pattern in this window. It looks like we might have one for a good part of that window. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 27 minutes ago, John1122 said: The GFS was a nice 1-3 with some 4+ areas for the Thursday/Friday event. The air behind it may be as cold or even colder than this. The heart of winter here is January 15th to February 15th. It's the coldest and snowiest time of winter here. You can hardly beat having a favorable pattern in this window. It looks like we might have one for a good part of that window. Though it’s supposed to be quite warm after this week correct? From the 21st till beginning of Feb.? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Though it’s supposed to be quite warm after this week correct? From the 21st till beginning of Feb.? There's going to be a warm up for 5-6 days, but the MJO should be headed towards the favorable phases around the 28th and there looks to be a PNA ridge inbound. It should set the stage for favorable weather in the first half of February. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This late week/weekend cold front looks brutal! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Knoxtron said: This late week/weekend cold front looks brutal! What does the crystal ball say for Nashville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, matt9697 said: What does the crystal ball say for Nashville? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Hearing that the end of week system could add to the snowpack. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The GFS just had it's best run. The other models are determined to not be generous here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 20 minutes ago, John1122 said: The GFS just had it's best run. The other models are determined to not be generous here. Seems like this is going to be a different season than we are used to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 hours ago, weathertree4u2 said: Hearing that the end of week system could add to the snowpack. Thoughts? Yes, but still a lot to be ironed out. Then a MONSTER warm-up the next week(day 8-14) 5-10 days worth, and then a colder Feb than maybe we have been used to....maybe. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yes, but still a lot to be ironed out. Then a MONSTER warm-up the next week(day 8-14) 5-10 days worth, and then a colder Feb than maybe we have been used to....maybe. Will be needing a break by then. Even the winters we look back on as great were not continuously cold and snowy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Yes, but still a lot to be ironed out. Then a MONSTER warm-up the next week(day 8-14) 5-10 days worth, and then a colder Feb than maybe we have been used to....maybe. After this week it will be welcomed. This is killing business in the construction. Plus it’s killing my sales temporarily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Yes, but still a lot to be ironed out. Then a MONSTER warm-up the next week(day 8-14) 5-10 days worth, and then a colder Feb than maybe we have been used to....maybe.Colder than normal February is a beautiful thing to me. Most of my snows across my life at my location have been in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Yes, but still a lot to be ironed out. Then a MONSTER warm-up the next week(day 8-14) 5-10 days worth, and then a colder Feb than maybe we have been used to....maybe. Colder than normal February is a beautiful thing to me. Most of my snows across my life at my location have been in February. There is some can kicking of the cold...I just haven't posted in a bit. It is more like weeks 2-4 of Feb as the MJO is gonna get toasty after the 22nd. We were gonna have to pay that toll at some point. It is possible that we may have a cold shot around the 30th, warm-up, and then hit the cold skids during the second week of Feb. I do urge a bit of caution to new posters (not you, Shawn). Originally, Jan 10-20th looked very warm. That can got kicked about ten days. So, any kind of strong cutter or storm is gonna bring down a lot of cold air, even during what looks like a warm-up timeframe. The first week or two of March could be cold but the jury is still out. This winter reminds me a lot of 95-96 which had a big storm, a warm-up, and then got cold again. I am maybe a little less confident that Feb is gonna be cold than I was a few weeks ago, but still reasonably confident. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 And there is a storm to track on Friday it appears. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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