weathertree4u2 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Coach B said: It likes all of Tennessee. Could be more as ratios will be higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks like we are back in business with 0z Euro and 6z GFS. Both seem to string out the moisture a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 0z CMC Ensemble mean looks very similar (10:1). Very complicated setup for models, but for now they seem to be focusing picking up the second piece of energy a little better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Middle and especially West TN looking more like they are gonna score a double whammy...1st from the initial wave before it generates a low too far east to help ETN, and the second that generates the Miller A type wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Moved to storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: GFS continuing to follow EURO. Euro is leading the way. If storm is still here by 12z I'll personally start the thread. I already started one. The event is going to affect the forum area. The only thing left to determine is how much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This is why I waited until this morning to look at modeling. I knew 0z was gonna be a mess. A dying wave which is followed by a second piece of energy is realistic as well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see modeling consolidate even more around that second piece of energy like the GFS had at 6z. When a strong cold front hits the GOM - dynamite. Good trends for all of the forum really. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is why I waited until this morning to look at modeling. I knew 0z was gonna be a mess. A dying wave which is followed by a second piece of energy is realistic as well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see modeling consolidate even more around that second piece of energy like the GFS had at 6z. When a strong cold front hits the GOM - dynamite. Good trends for all of the forum really. Yeah this thing is almost acting like quasi phased system...with wave #1 feeding wave #2 from the Atlantic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah this thing is almost acting like quasi phased system...with wave #1 feeding wave #2 from the Atlantic I was digging through slp placement this morning...both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro move that coastal a little more off shore. And it doesn't really hurt the second system. I also wouldn't want to be in Memphis making this forecast. The 0z GEPS is all-in for Memphis, but the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS are less enthused when one looks at individual members. The GEFS/EPS lack a clear cluster of solutions. Plus, the CMC/GEPS were the slowest to catch the solution in the first place - almost seems like they are a couple of days behind. Now,(and I am sure you have seen this in the past as well) waiting on that second slug of moisture to come up the valley is not without peril. I have found that to be an error w/ some winter storms or it slides too far eastward and goes through western NC. I don't have a clear feel for this yet. I tend to think it is some sort of strung-out anafront which stalls, and we get a pulse(s) along it. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the second piece of energy be stronger or even be the main storm - might be a little late for that trend, but worth watching. I would also expect that the system on the EC(first wave) to trend closer to the coast if it is the main system as it will wrap up more. I think modeling is sniffing out a big coastal, but just can't figure out which piece of energy to accentuate....or it could just be a moderate over-running event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is why I waited until this morning to look at modeling. I knew 0z was gonna be a mess. A dying wave which is followed by a second piece of energy is realistic as well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see modeling consolidate even more around that second piece of energy like the GFS had at 6z. When a strong cold front hits the GOM - dynamite. Good trends for all of the forum really. This is why I was a bit confused at the 0z GFS run yesterday. That super frigid air meeting the warm Gulf has to result in something, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 12z CMC(know for its sometimes cold bias) sends the freezing line into the southern Everglades w/ single digits in the Panhandle. This is like 1-2 cold shots after next Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 As Canada builds cold on the GFS and we get through the "warm phases" of the MJO....when the MJO hits phase 7 later this month, that could come south. Legit winter pattern showing up on modeling, even after next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 @weathertree4u2 , here you go. Fun run. 3 storms. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The mountains have snow on them right now. This may be a deal where the mountains have snow from Monday through the rest of winter. Super happy for the ski slopes. If they don't get snow, they can sure make it in bunches. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @weathertree4u2 , here you go. Fun run. 3 storms. Lawd…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Models are trying for another potentially big storm in the 174-200hrs out range. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: Models are trying for another potentially big storm in the 174-200hrs out range. Yup, it was on the GFS and CMC. Didn't pop on GFS, but man, the potential is there. Would be insane to have a chance to score snow on snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z GFS looks close to delivering next Friday. Big improvement over 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This is snow total for the Friday storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 While I love snow...this would bring TN to its knees...2 storm total 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: While I love snow...this would bring TN to its knees...2 storm total Especially with sub-zero temps night after night. This would cripple the state. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Met1985 said: Especially with sub-zero temps night after night. This would cripple the state. Luckily we know it will change with next run so 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 As crazy as it sounds...that GFS run had the potential to be way bigger than the above snow map...if the second system had got going a touch sooner and turned the corner it would have been lights out...literally. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, weathertree4u2 said: Luckily we know it will change with next run so It will but as I posted in our forum thread is that if we have a snowpack to our north and to our west and we get any meaningful snowfall even just an inch or two you can count on the temps to trend down.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, weathertree4u2 said: Luckily we know it will change with next run so While I agree, and to a certain extent hope it does. That run is actually plausible. You have to go way, way back in the history books, but a system leading into and exiting this type pattern is there. Would be a 1 in 100 year type scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z GEFS at 180....usually get at couple members supporting an OP at that range, not this many. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GEFS then sets the Arctic Circle directly in the center of the US lol...did Goofy ingest the Day After Tomorrow movie. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z GEFs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The Friday storm is plausible. One thing DT always warns about is a second system which is a shadow of the first feature. It is a weird feedback issue in modeling that allows modeling to repeat the preceding system IF the first system was very strong. However, given the amount of cold in place along with an active STJ/northern stream combo....another system sliding across is very plausible. And honestly, another after that with warm air advection wouldn't surprise me. This pattern is a good one. It will relax from Jan 24-28, and then possibly reload with as potent a pattern or even more so. And I might add, the trailing system has been off-and-on modeling for several days. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I honestly just looked and the 6z GFS shifted towards the Canadian on the next Friday event. This could be an historic week of winter weather around these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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