PowellVolz Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 18z EPC control dug and slowed the trailing shortwave a lot more: 18z control on the left, 12z OP on right Doesn't quite go out far enough, but I suspect that was about to be a nice Miller A. That ridge in the west taller? That’s good right?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: That ridge in the west taller? That’s good right? . Yes that 18z run was probably about to bury someone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2024 Author Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: That ridge in the west taller? That’s good right? . It does look taller so, it could be part of why the s/w digs more. But I think a lot depends one how those PNA ridges tilt too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 It does look taller so, it could be part of why the s/w digs more. But I think a lot depends one how those PNA ridges tilt too. Seems like the trough digging a little more would potentially hold back energy a little longer. A lot of moving parts the last 24 hours. There’s been times in the past we wanted that dig to allow a better entry to the corner and room for a NW trend but I have no idea if that’s good or bad right now. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Ya'll, I am gonna wait until the morning to check modeling as I don't think it is worked out yet. Might take to 12z to find some semblance of where this is heading. Reel in a good pattern, folks! FWIW, the GEFS ext also looks stellar. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 ICON trending towards Miller A 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 So are we just gun shy on starting a thread? Western parts of the forum are just a few days out. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 So are we just gun shy on starting a thread? Western parts of the forum are just a few days out. .No one wants to be the kiss of death . 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Just now, PowellVolz said: No one wants to be the kiss of death . I feel we should wait till tomorrow mid day runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 18 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said: So are we just gun shy on starting a thread? Western parts of the forum are just a few days out. . Skin that smoke wagon! Go for it! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 ICON was a little south of 18z and really buried Plateau and points West. But it warmed nosed and was not as good as 12z. GFS is a continued bleh compared to 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 DT says the GFS will not be correct until around 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 The Canadian looks like it's going to be epic, then it just dies in 6 hours. Crushes Arkansas and Memphis though. It never makes sense to me that other areas get huge snow storms and don't need the Gulf, but they just die in this area without a gulf tap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 CMC hammers West TN (Especially NW TN) before the low forms in southern GA and then moves out to sea. Mid TN gets 1-3" and nada for East TN on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Not pretty for East Tennessee. Man, the Canadian looks nice and then just dies. Don't get it either, as unlike the GFS, it seems to have a Gulf low. Models having trouble with energy transfer or something? GFS pops a low off the coast, albeit too late. Luckily there is still time and it looks like big changes up high. But not staying up for the Euro. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 To give us a little extra kick, the GFS runs some northern energy down and it also falls apart as it gets to the area. I truly hope I don't have to pay a 30-40 percent above normal utility bill for nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Talk about winter pain. Look at this 24hr snow map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Hilariously, after that it rounds the corner and snows over North Carolina, nearly 360 degree snow around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Talk about winter pain. Look at this 24hr snow map. It will be a huge bust for the local wx stations after sounding the alarms. If that is the end result then come on SER! Push this bitter air back to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Good thing a new thread was not started. If after tomorrow the trend continues then stick a fork in this MLK storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I feel like Carver knew what was upcoming on the models and went to bed early to avoid the heartache 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I don't know. Maybe this when we lose it, and then it finds a way back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Skin that smoke wagon! Go for it!My last name is Murphy. Nobody wants me starting it. I have laws named after my luck.. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 The Euro was similar to 12z but also got the far eastern areas .3 or .4 QPF. Basically a 2-5 inch event forum wide. Hopefully this thing comes back around. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Models have definitely come together for an overall idea. Trends will still happen from here. Euro still the best for snow which makes you pretty confident. Remember we are tracking .1's of qpf 5-6 days out. The euro has the best coastal development yet but it still doesn't throw much qpf back across ETN. It doesn't really consolidate the energy but just strings it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I realize TWC app updates local forecasts with almost every model run. I found it interesting that overnight, they took Chattanooga from flurries to actual accumulating snow. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Huge improvement on the 06z GFS vs the 00z. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 6z GFS, two rounds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 24 minutes ago, John1122 said: Huge improvement on the 06z GFS vs the 00z. It likes all of Tennessee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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