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January Medium-Long Range Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler
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  On 1/10/2024 at 5:37 PM, John1122 said:

No, for this system. The cold dumps west and a SE ridge crops up in response. By Tuesday morning there's a 30/40 degree temperature difference over the Eastern half of Tennessee on the UKIE vs the GFS.

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If this was to happen it would definitely make the public even more skeptical of the media & wx forecasters.  All the hype of just the cold to not even materialize for this area.  

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  On 1/10/2024 at 5:39 PM, Matthew70 said:

If this was to happen it would definitely make the public even more skeptical of the media & wx forecasters.  All the hype of just the cold to not even materialize for this area.  

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The European/UKIE have had a western bias for a number of years. It could be that. The Euro this year and over the last several years is way more jumpy with various solutions than it used to be too. It used be hard to get it to show a storm unless it was going to actually happen, now it kinda shows every possible solution over a 4 or 5 day span. The GFS tends to be more consistent but that can lead to some major failures on it's part. The Canadian is more like Delmar in Oh Brother Where Art Thou, in that it usually either shows exactly what the GFS does or exactly what the Euro does on a given run, where as it used to always go all in with any big snow or cold event.

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  On 1/10/2024 at 5:24 PM, Carvers Gap said:
I used to think those were erroneous lollipops, but Knox Co has to have some sort of micro-confluence there.  Tellico had a great illustration overnight.  On more than one occasion, Knoxville has outperformed areas to the north.  I do think the front gets sheered by the time it gets to TRI as precipitation tries to get over the Apps.  But that alley to the west of Knoxville seems to let a lot of precip in....I see that w/ summer thunderstorms as well.  It seems if one area can dodge the Plateau rain shadow, it is Knoxville.
It is also possible that there is some smoothing from the Smokies which affects that.  We often have way to much digital snow here as modeling will often smooth snow amounts too much.
Not just the lollipop, often the Chattanooga snow hole in models goes all the way to Roane county and rarely is that ever accurate. Usually in real life that snow hole is really primarily just Hamilton county but models drag it north to almost Oak Ridge often.

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  On 1/10/2024 at 6:42 PM, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, definitely. It was way under on QPF with this last System throughout the area. 

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Only caution would be this isn't a full gulf tap with a strong low.  It's an overrunning look.  I have no clue if it makes a difference how the Euro handles QPF, but it's a different setup for sure

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JB called it this morning.  He said that operationals(euro specifically) were too amped.  I have noticed multiple ensemble members which were sliders or even went into the Gulf States as a slider.  Not many have turned the corner like the Euro just did, but the solution has been there buried in ensembles.  It might be the primary solution.  I thought it might just be smoothing.  JB noted that high pressure over the top should flatten it out.  It looks to me like models are abandoning the anafront, holding energy back after first flattening the front.  It almost creates an overrunning event over TN.

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