Daniel Boone Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The UKIE is full western trough/se ridge and we stay warm dry over most of the state. It and the Euro often have similar outcomes as they likely have some common dna. We will see if the Euro is more like it soon. If right, MJO ruling the Roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Model's have ingested data from previous similar situations. Could be those occurences produced more in that area, ie., Christmas 2020. That would reflect from the Model's output. That’s interesting. Good point . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The UKIE is full western trough/se ridge and we stay warm dry over most of the state. It and the Euro often have similar outcomes as they likely have some common dna. We will see if the Euro is more like it soon. Are you talking after next week?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Are you talking after next week? . No, for this system. The cold dumps west and a SE ridge crops up in response. By Tuesday morning there's a 30/40 degree temperature difference over the Eastern half of Tennessee on the UKIE vs the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It may be that the UKIE is going to get to the same solution, but much more slowly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: No, for this system. The cold dumps west and a SE ridge crops up in response. By Tuesday morning there's a 30/40 degree temperature difference over the Eastern half of Tennessee on the UKIE vs the GFS. If this was to happen it would definitely make the public even more skeptical of the media & wx forecasters. All the hype of just the cold to not even materialize for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: If this was to happen it would definitely make the public even more skeptical of the media & wx forecasters. All the hype of just the cold to not even materialize for this area. The European/UKIE have had a western bias for a number of years. It could be that. The Euro this year and over the last several years is way more jumpy with various solutions than it used to be too. It used be hard to get it to show a storm unless it was going to actually happen, now it kinda shows every possible solution over a 4 or 5 day span. The GFS tends to be more consistent but that can lead to some major failures on it's part. The Canadian is more like Delmar in Oh Brother Where Art Thou, in that it usually either shows exactly what the GFS does or exactly what the Euro does on a given run, where as it used to always go all in with any big snow or cold event. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I think I am more uncertain of the eventually outcome after the 12z runs for this system. Sheared out mess? Trough digs too far the west? I’m hoping we find the happy medium somehow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, John1122 said: No, for this system. The cold dumps west and a SE ridge crops up in response. By Tuesday morning there's a 30/40 degree temperature difference over the Eastern half of Tennessee on the UKIE vs the GFS. What a nightmare ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I used to think those were erroneous lollipops, but Knox Co has to have some sort of micro-confluence there. Tellico had a great illustration overnight. On more than one occasion, Knoxville has outperformed areas to the north. I do think the front gets sheered by the time it gets to TRI as precipitation tries to get over the Apps. But that alley to the west of Knoxville seems to let a lot of precip in....I see that w/ summer thunderstorms as well. It seems if one area can dodge the Plateau rain shadow, it is Knoxville. It is also possible that there is some smoothing from the Smokies which affects that. We often have way to much digital snow here as modeling will often smooth snow amounts too much.Not just the lollipop, often the Chattanooga snow hole in models goes all the way to Roane county and rarely is that ever accurate. Usually in real life that snow hole is really primarily just Hamilton county but models drag it north to almost Oak Ridge often.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Another difference in the GFS/UKIE is the UKIE has a 1029 mb high in the Plains, the GFS has 1048mb high at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Also, one of you guys fire up a thread for it. We're gonna get the Arctic air and there will be some snow with it. with Western areas likely locked in for at least 2-4 inches. Time to focus on this in a dedicated thread imo and get more of the 8-15+ day stuff in here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Well, if it does dump out west, we know for certain now the MJO is rolling the roost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I think the UKMET is way, way overdone. Bias by it is in play. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 At 105, the Euro looks flatter. More cold is pressing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 At 117, it is definitely flatter w/ much more hp over the top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 By 129, almost all of TN has light snow...system is flat as a pancake. Much different solution and not like the UKMET at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 What is interesting is the Euro is holding back energy now behind the initial front near the GOM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This should for a low east of the Apps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The Euro actually looks sort of like the UKIE but faster. The UKIE at 144 looks like it was heading towards the Euro at 126. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It appears the Euro has found they storm which it lost a coupled of days ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This looks like it could be big...... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: This looks like it could be big...... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 That'll do for a trend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I still believe the Euro has QPF under modeling issues. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: I still believe the Euro has QPF under modeling issues. I just said the same thing to a friend of mine. Maybe since that is almost a completely different solution, it doesn't have it all nailed down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: I still believe the Euro has QPF under modeling issues. Yeah, definitely. It was way under on QPF with this last System throughout the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, definitely. It was way under on QPF with this last System throughout the area. That is a big storm track right there, Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, definitely. It was way under on QPF with this last System throughout the area. Only caution would be this isn't a full gulf tap with a strong low. It's an overrunning look. I have no clue if it makes a difference how the Euro handles QPF, but it's a different setup for sure . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 JB called it this morning. He said that operationals(euro specifically) were too amped. I have noticed multiple ensemble members which were sliders or even went into the Gulf States as a slider. Not many have turned the corner like the Euro just did, but the solution has been there buried in ensembles. It might be the primary solution. I thought it might just be smoothing. JB noted that high pressure over the top should flatten it out. It looks to me like models are abandoning the anafront, holding energy back after first flattening the front. It almost creates an overrunning event over TN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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