weathertree4u2 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I think it was '94(John remembers this winter much better than I do)...it was just nastiness. We had ice and snow. The interstates were snarled as it stayed cold long after the storm. I had water in my apartment as the rooftops were damming water behind ice. I remember chipping ice from my car. I shattered, and I thought is was my rear window breaking out. Just a brutal pattern. This may have a lot of that in it. We do not want a 94 redo, some places around here were out of power from that ice storm for over two weeks, it was pretty bad I think at one point the state had to provide state trooper protection for the head of the power company because he was getting death threats 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Interestingly, both the Euro and CMC leave the door wide open for another system to follow 3-4 days later. The precip panels on the GEFS have also been showing another system during that time frame......... pretty consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 This one feels feast or famine. It's either a major event or it's clear skies. Our energy is still over 4 days from being onshore and we have another system to deal with this week too. Still just warning shots but a good sign is that we have cross model support. I personally don't like the looks of this one especially for ETN. But really for anyone. This is one of those storms that will be a pain in the rear to track. It'll be easier to squash this into the ocean vs amp IMO. I hope I'm wrong we have lost most support for an amped version with most of 12z a whiff besides EURO. In normal circumstances I would argue that's right where we want it (for middle and west regions). I'm taking the sit back and relax approach. Let's see what we have come Friday when it's only 2 days from being onshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 24 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: This one feels feast or famine. It's either a major event or it's clear skies. Our energy is still over 4 days from being onshore and we have another system to deal with this week too. Still just warning shots but a good sign is that we have cross model support. I personally don't like the looks of this one especially for ETN. But really for anyone. This is one of those storms that will be a pain in the rear to track. It'll be easier to squash this into the ocean vs amp IMO. I hope I'm wrong we have lost most support for an amped version with most of 12z a whiff besides EURO. In normal circumstances I would argue that's right where we want it (for middle and west regions). I'm taking the sit back and relax approach. Let's see what we have come Friday when it's only 2 days from being onshore. I think until we get superstorm number two out of the way, we won't really have a good handle for what is to follow. I also think the chances for something wintry in the week after superstorm number two is more likely than not. JMO, will be fascinating to watch it play out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The Euro was a classic track and would be a nice snowstorm for Tennessee imo. Lows that move from Mobile, Alabama to interior South Carolina are money here as long as we have cold. Ever since I've done model watching, they all underestimate QPF from gulf lows. Both in amounts and northern extent. I still can't for the life of me see why I switch to sleet with the low moving over South Georgia and 700mb, 850, 925 and surface temps well into the 20s either. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Euro was a classic track and would be a nice snowstorm for Tennessee imo. Lows that move from Mobile, Alabama to interior South Carolina are money here as long as we have cold. Ever since I've done model watching, they all underestimate QPF from gulf lows. Both in amounts and northern extent. I still can't for the life of me see why I switch to sleet with the low moving over South Georgia and 700mb, 850, 925 and surface temps well into the 20s either. I was looking for convection along the GOM... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 48 hours ago the Euro gave me .93 inches from this storm through 7pm this evening. It's raining right now and I'm at 3 inches from it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 48 hours ago the Euro gave me .93 inches from this storm through 7pm this evening. It's raining right now and I'm at 3 inches from it.YES well said! QPF modeled for me from this event on Euro was 1.57, I received 3.46".Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I was looking for convection along the GOM... It was a little weaker at the surface and cut QPF more than in half from the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: YES well said! QPF modeled for me from this event on Euro was 1.57, I received 3.46". Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk For this system, looking at the 12z Sunday run, the Euro is by far the biggest miss for this area. The NAM and RGEM were best, with the Canadian/UKIE/GFS all doing better than the Euro with a heavy precip axis up into East Tennessee. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Looks like the precip modeled to build into the region this evening and tonight for snow showers is starting to show on OHX radar heading east. See some Mping reports of snow and mixed precip near Memphis currently. Maybe this will over produce like the rain QPF did with this system. I wouldn't be surprised considering the Great Lakes are wide open and the storm is interacting with the open water as that low passes through the eastern lakes.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Looks like the precip modeled to build into the region this evening and tonight for snow showers is starting to show on OHX radar heading east. See some Mping reports of light snow near Memphis currently. Maybe this will over produce like the rain QPF did with this system. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Can confirm. Very light snow showers mixed in with a light rain from Memphis and into Fayette and hardeman counties east of Memphis. Wind has been screaming all day long, tough day for folks who make their living outside. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Looks like the precip modeled to build into the region this evening and tonight for snow showers is starting to show on OHX radar heading east. See some Mping reports of snow and mixed precip near Memphis currently. Maybe this will over produce like the rain QPF did with this system.Sent from my Pixel 7 using TapatalkFriend in Jackson Tn is reporting sleet and snow. . 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Heavy sleet storm just passed Waldens Ridge and put a dusting (?) down really quick. Just east of Dunlap Edit: Melted quickly, currently 40 and dropping 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Can confirm. Very light snow showers mixed in with a light rain from Memphis and into Fayette and hardeman counties east of Memphis. Wind has been screaming all day long, tough day for folks who make their living outside. Yeah I wanted to look at the Memphis radar but appears it's under maintenance so can't get a good look out that way.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Heavy sleet storm just passed Waldens Ridge and put a dusting (?) down really quick. Just east of Dunlap Edit: Melted quickly, currently 40 and dropping I'm in Madisonville in Monroe Co.. just had quick burst sleet here as well, Temps about same as there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18Z GFS holds serve. Maybe a tad colder, and deeper with CAA speed. Basically full state snow, no mixing even Chattanooga rain snow line is close to Tennessee border but appears to stay south of state line.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18z GFS is an anafront. That is a 2020 redux. Hopefully, we see it strengthen as we get closer. Nino systems are often over performers 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18z gfs has a stronger hp dropping in 1055 this time. Looks like the wave is still there. I thought it actually got more of MS and AL in but it doesn’t look like it. Actually the hp makes it to a 1056 at one point! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On the go right now, accumulations still in the 4”+ range for East TN on that run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On the go right now, accumulations still in the 4”+ range for East TN on that run?Essentially only down around Chattanooga is it around an inch. Though I don't fully understand considering it depicted snow the entire time, so must be accounting on some mixing to occur there. Chattanooga aside it's roughly the same 3-4" with some spots going 5-6".Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Models are keying on a northern stream system following on the 19th-20th time frame that would probably bring another 1-2 inches of snow to north of 40 from Nashville eastward. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 13 minutes ago, John1122 said: Models are keying on a northern stream system following on the 19th-20th time frame that would probably bring another 1-2 inches of snow to north of 40 from Nashville eastward. Yea and it does not appear to warm all that much over that time period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18z GFS is an anafront. That is a 2020 redux. Hopefully, we see it strengthen as we get closer. Nino systems are often over performersIn a anafrontal system, is their elements that can enhance qpf that the mods don’t pickup on? NW flow, steep lapse rates, low level moisture, etc….? I’m assuming it could be rationed higher from cold 850’s? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: In a anafrontal system, is their elements that can enhance qpf that the mods don’t pickup on? NW flow, steep lapse rates, low level moisture, etc….? I’m assuming it could be rationed higher from cold 850’s? . I can’t answer that but I’m sure sun angle and ground temps would cancel that out 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Snow or no snow, models seem in agreement that it will be COLD next week. Also, as an aside, this is probably the most fun I have had tracking since the March snow in 22. Been too long, gents. This winter has already been more interesting than last year even if it doesn't pan out. lol 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 29 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: In a anafrontal system, is their elements that can enhance qpf that the mods don’t pickup on? NW flow, steep lapse rates, low level moisture, etc….? I’m assuming it could be rationed higher from cold 850’s? . We really just want a powerhouse cold front it that is the case. Off the top of my head.... Tap the GOM....any kind of lift...intensity of the cold behind the front...speed of the front....and then have it slow down as it goes over your area... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I will take 3-6” anytime any day in the winter. So many not happy it’s not showing a foot. Not here just other places. That amount with the temps will be bad enough. It won’t melt. If we get a lot more then it will cripple the area with the temps coming behind it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: I will take 3-6” anytime any day in the winter. So many not happy it’s not showing a foot. Not here just other places. That amount with the temps will be bad enough. It won’t melt. If we get a lot more then it will cripple the area with the temps coming behind it. Agreed. And I think it's important to match expectations with location. Living in the central valley, if I can get 2 inches, I am content. Everything else is gravy. Which speaking of totals, I was looking at upper air temps and temps ( on the GFS) and it will be really cold. I assume this stuff will be very high ratio? Shouldn't take a lot of moisture if that's the case, and could easily over perform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 35 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: In a anafrontal system, is their elements that can enhance qpf that the mods don’t pickup on? NW flow, steep lapse rates, low level moisture, etc….? I’m assuming it could be rationed higher from cold 850’s? . Didn't see this, but pretty much what I was wondering as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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