fountainguy97 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: It is also very important to look at ensembles. The means for the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS actually suppress the system like the CMC does, rotate the energy below the forum, and bring it up the coast. Maybe that is where we want it? Maybe not. But I will say, I do think the operationals are driving the bus and catching trends that the ensembles are likely washing out. Operational trends matter at this point. Yeah gfs is coming toward euro which is our miller A. Gefs is very suppressed as is EPS. Thats a good sign that maybe the OPs are on the northern end of guidance. It's possible that means we won't see a massive north trend. Just speculation at this point. we have 2 major systems (1 ongoing 1 to come) before this one is next up to bat. Long way to go but it is probably the best look of the season so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 20 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah gfs is coming toward euro which is our miller A. Gefs is very suppressed as is EPS. Thats a good sign that maybe the OPs are on the northern end of guidance. It's possible that means we won't see a massive north trend. Just speculation at this point. we have 2 major systems (1 ongoing 1 to come) before this one is next up to bat. Long way to go but it is probably the best look of the season so far. The 6z EPS ends at 144 for the control. The thermal lines were much further to the north.....almost would have been a true cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The overnight trend is losing high pressure over the top. The 6z EPS control was an extreme example of this. Likely would have gone to Columbus, Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 As for cold, all operationals/deterministic runs have portions of the forum area below zero for temps and real feel temps -10 to -30 below zero. Just a brutal air mass next week. I don't think it will be as bad as Dec '22 as the wind doesn't look as bad, but some extreme temps continue to be on modeling. The CMC is maybe the most impressive as it does it without snow cover. If any portion of the are gets snow cover, some all-time lows could be flirted with.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: As for cold, all operationals/deterministic runs have portions of the forum area below zero for temps and real feel temps -10 to -30 below zero. Just a brutal air mass next week. I don't think it will be as bad as Dec '22 as the wind doesn't look as bad, but some extreme temps continue to be on modeling. The CMC is maybe the most impressive as it does it without snow cover. If any portion of the are gets snow cover, some all-time lows could be flirted with.... Hopefully, things will go the snow way for us. Forget the cold without the snow. I can remember some 1970's Winter's that did just that. Dumped all around us. We'd get flurries at the end as the cold would move in , it would warm up and rain then same. Those were generally cutter Winter's with no blocking for the most part , however. Although 72-73 , 73-74 and 74-75 had Storms just miss us. 72-73 had the huge one go way South. The other's OV and MA cashed in. NC did decent in the last 2. Cad. The good thing is only one was a Nino. So, even in that Climate Era things just went wrong for us. The way the Ball bounces sometimes. On the bright side, the majority of Nino Winters produced well for us , particularly in the normal Great Valley screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nash_LSU Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: As for cold, all operationals/deterministic runs have portions of the forum area below zero for temps and real feel temps -10 to -30 below zero. Just a brutal air mass next week. I don't think it will be as bad as Dec '22 as the wind doesn't look as bad, but some extreme temps continue to be on modeling. The CMC is maybe the most impressive as it does it without snow cover. If any portion of the are gets snow cover, some all-time lows could be flirted with.... I think it has potential to be pretty bad. If we get the snow as currently shown and the lows are as extreme as currently shown, it will kill people. Imagine impassable roads and a TVA plant or two going down. We saw it briefly in 2022, but this could last a little longer. This is everyone's reminder to check your generators now. If the models come to fruition, we need to be prepared and help our neighbors. Edtited to add: I don't want to come across as alarmist. I'm not. We just need to be ready for it. Luckily, we still have a few days to gather more data. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: It is also very important to look at ensembles. The means for the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS actually suppress the system like the CMC does, rotate the energy below the forum, and bring it up the coast. Maybe that is where we want it? Maybe not. But I will say, I do think the operationals are driving the bus and catching trends that the ensembles are likely washing out. Operational trends matter at this point. To me there is 2 possible outcomes still being figured out and 1 joker card. A) the Hudson Low and 1050+ High dropping down are too far south currently modeled (there placement is what pushes the front thru). Which would mean the Ops are too suppressed. I give that about 40% weight based on this winter of the SE trend, plus climate. B. Those features are too north and Ops too slow with the front = cold rain, which some ensembles show. Think that is more likely currently on most modeling. And Joker Card...whether or not the wave can generate cyclogenisis along the Gulf. Joker can reck havoc on both A) and B...think that will be an issue foe the next several days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Long story short...think suppressed is the ultimate outcome currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 27 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Long story short...think suppressed is the ultimate outcome currently Yeah, may wind up with a 73 type deal before said and done . Although, probably not due to forcing from MJO and warmer Atlantic SST's than then probably creating a SER of sorts trying to fight back. In this case, may be a good thing for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Following the season trend?https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1744750814021689745?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Ensembles have been a weak anafront for days. But just a few tenths of moisture can work out to decent amounts. The 12z GEFS is in an anafront w/ no wave. It is almost "the rotate the energy under the base of the trough, OTS" solution. That said, from an E TN perspective, I want solutions a bit weaker right now. My guess is that this over performs compared to what 12z just showed. I also think the GFS is under-doing what will occur in actuality....for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The Canadian entered the chat. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Additionally, and we have posted about this before, modeling will "see" the block a bit better than it does further out. I reminds me several years ago when modeling would try to cut a storm into a block....that can happened, but often it doesn't. This is kind of a weaker version of that. However, with as strong as this cold front is, I expect some fireworks in reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The Canadian entered the chat. Yep. That is gonna leave a mark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Following the season trend?https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1744750814021689745?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg . Yeah, man. It is such an odd trend as the GFS used to be too suppressed. I noticed last evening a big trend south. Then, everything moved northwest. I think interaction w/ the GOM, interaction w/ HL blocking, and the strength of the vort is still being worked out. Nice to see the CMC on board today. I am guessing the 12z GFS was way underdone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 At this point, I would be very surprised if the entire forum area gets blanked - not shocked, but very surprised. The ICON has a different iteration, but still hits some areas. The GFS is weaker. I would suspect the Euro comes in torqued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just digging through the CMC/GFS combo...both are popping slp near Hatteras. I am not sure that will help us or not. However, if modeling begins to consolidate (think Euro), then we could be looking at a major event. As of now, I lean suppression. If the Euro goes big again....I may rethink. The elements are there for a big storm so far at 12z - cold air roaring in, slp trying to form on the front, blocking. Generally, a blend of the GFS and Euro would be my recommendation right now...but let's see what ensembles show. If we are trending towards a larger storm, some big dogs will show up on individuals members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Just digging through the CMC/GFS combo...both are popping slp near Hatteras. I am not sure that will help us or not. However, if modeling begins to consolidate (think Euro), then we could be looking at a major event. As of now, I lean suppression. If the Euro goes big again....I may rethink. The elements are there for a big storm so far at 12z - cold air roaring in, slp trying to form on the front, blocking. Generally, a blend of the GFS and Euro would be my recommendation right now...but let's see what ensembles show. If we are trending towards a larger storm, some big dogs will show up on individuals members. Well, as opposed to what is usually the case, the ground will be cold enough for whatever falls to stick, we all know that it does not take a lot, speaking of the Nashville area mainly 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just digging through the CMC/GFS combo...both are popping slp near Hatteras. I am not sure that will help us or not. However, if modeling begins to consolidate (think Euro), then we could be looking at a major event. As of now, I lean suppression. If the Euro goes big again....I may rethink. The elements are there for a big storm so far at 12z - cold air roaring in, slp trying to form on the front, blocking. Generally, a blend of the GFS and Euro would be my recommendation right now...but let's see what ensembles show. If we are trending towards a larger storm, some big dogs will show up on individuals members.How difficult is it for a system to form on the warm side of an arctic front and throw moisture back across the boundary?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 OHX on FB just now:Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 What excites me most at this point are the modeled temps. For once we may not be dealing with marginals. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: How difficult is it for a system to form on the warm side of an arctic front and throw moisture back across the boundary? . Maybe more like the front slows, and an slp forms along it. '93 would be an extreme example. '96 maybe also. As John noted, modeling has sped up some. We can also catch a lee side low which helps E TN sometimes. That isn't the gospel on my part, but that is how I would envision it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 27 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: Well, as opposed to what is usually the case, the ground will be cold enough for whatever falls to stick, we all know that it does not take a lot, speaking of the Nashville area mainly I haven't even looked at ground temps. Probably a flash freeze as the front is inbound. Christmas '20 was pretty meh, and it roared through. This reminds me a lot of that anafront. That said, I don't think the Euro is out of the question either. Let's see how that trends. If it is 17" of snow...ground temps won't likely matter. And for that matter if anyone gets that much, things are going to be shut down for days in those areas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 What excites me most at this point are the modeled temps. For once we may not be dealing with marginals.Absolutely! Years of marginal temps, this would be awesome. Also not a typical southern snow that is gone the next day, as modeled mostly we'd have snow on the ground for up to a week. I haven't seen that in at least a decade.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Great discussion guy's ! I'm down with RSV now so, not participating much but, am checking in ever so often. Fun times upcoming ! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Oh no man I hate to hear that! RSV is no joke! Pray you get well soon! Maybe these fun model runs will help! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Ensembles have it now as a strong anafront. The GEFS has several SLPs which run the coast, but the idea is not consolidated. The GEPS has multiple SLPs(all over the place) ranging from cutters through mid-state to coastals, to inland runners, to Apps runners. Just looking at that, I think we are going to quite possibly see some version of a mid-state cutter to a coastal SLP - the window is that big. For now, it is just an anafront w/ something trying to form along the front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Great discussion guy's ! I'm down with RSV now so, not participating much but, am checking in ever so often. Fun times upcoming ! We've run the gauntlet in my house since fall....paraflu, croup, rona, standard cold, and rebound rona. I think we have managed to dodge RSV. Feel better! If it snows next week, you should be good by then!!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12z GEPS and GEFS ensembles (especially the GEPS) have beefier snow means. Good sign. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Great discussion guy's ! I'm down with RSV now so, not participating much but, am checking in ever so often. Fun times upcoming ! Feel better soon. We are going to need everyone at 100% rowing in the right direction to bring a snow system home........... lol Hope it passes quickly! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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