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January Medium-Long Range Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler
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4 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Wow, that GFS run might be the coldest 8-10 day stretch of weather I can remember seeing modeled for SWVA. We don't break freezing from Jan 13ish to beyond Jan 22ish

The warm up really might be a warm up to above freezing. Lol. 

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8 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Wow, that GFS run might be the coldest 8-10 day stretch of weather I can remember seeing modeled for SWVA. We don't break freezing from Jan 13ish to beyond Jan 22ish

Was looking at that also,impressive what the GFS is showing,gonna make the plumbers happy if its right

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If the Euro is right, that is not good for E TN.  Miller As will almost always jog NW.  Downslope and proximity to what would likely be an Apps runner in reality would be no dice.  The GFS is likely too suppressed w/ the Miller A.  GREAT trends for portions of middle TN and west TN.  Not great trends for E TN once we take into account slp placement bias.  Plus, there are many more moving parts w/ a Miller A than an Apps runner.  And there is also now in play the opposite of what I said which is...the energy rotates under our forum area, climbs the SE Coast, and misses the region entirely.  Again, way more moving parts this morning, unless we area talking the Canadian which is still zip.  

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 A slp in central Georgia (tracking to Hatteras) is not what we want in E TN.....What we want is a slp tracking from the Panhandle to Hatteras.  Anything more northwest creates downslope in E TN and wrecks thermal profiles.  At this very minute, it isn't terrible...but if it takes a likely NW jog, adios for many.  An anafront is a much easier solution, and more predictable.  That said, having a blizzard on a big cold front is very realistic.

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Just now, Carvers Gap said:

 A slp in central Georgia (tracking to Hatteras) is not what we want in E TN.....What we want is a slp tracking from the Panhandle to Hatteras.  Anything more northwest creates downslope in E TN and wrecks thermal profiles.  At this very minute, it isn't terrible...but if it takes a likely NW jog, adios for many.  An anafront is a much easier solution, and more predictable.  That said, having a blizzard on a big cold front is very realistic.

This has been my reservation for this system. This screams cold rain for E TN. But the other portions of the state are due! 

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Just now, fountainguy97 said:

This has been my reservation for this system. This screams cold rain for E TN. But the other portions of the state are due! 

Not only that, but the 6z GEFS has the worst solution which rotates the energy through the base of the trough, off the NC coast, and misses the eastern half of TN altogether.   I don't think that is likely BTW, but that is in play.  I noticed it yesterday on some individual members.  The big problem is that modeling is losing high pressure above the storm.  If we lose hp, it may well cut through middle TN.  This is also the timeframe when modeling tends to lose storms or lose original solutions - day 5-7.

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It is also very important to look at ensembles.   The means for the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS actually suppress the system like the CMC does, rotate the energy below the forum, and bring it up the coast.  Maybe that is where we want it?  Maybe not.  But I will say, I do think the operationals are driving the bus and catching trends that the ensembles are likely washing out.  Operational trends matter at this point.

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