Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The Canadian may key on the second piece of energy...let's see. Edit: yep, it has another storm on the 19th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 At least we are getting some much needed rains no matter the outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 All right, that is it for me tonight. Ya'll, reel the Euro in! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Wow, that GFS run might be the coldest 8-10 day stretch of weather I can remember seeing modeled for SWVA. We don't break freezing from Jan 13ish to beyond Jan 22ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Wow, that GFS run might be the coldest 8-10 day stretch of weather I can remember seeing modeled for SWVA. We don't break freezing from Jan 13ish to beyond Jan 22ish The warm up really might be a warm up to above freezing. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Wow, that GFS run might be the coldest 8-10 day stretch of weather I can remember seeing modeled for SWVA. We don't break freezing from Jan 13ish to beyond Jan 22ish Was looking at that also,impressive what the GFS is showing,gonna make the plumbers happy if its right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Starting to get power outages across Southern end of the county. Highest gust so far 56.4 mph on Skyway below Indian Boundary (highest elev weather station in area, 1700') 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Euro is coming in colder than it's warm nosed 12z run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Snow line is further south through 162. Instead of 50s in the east, it's 30s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Looks like it's starting as rain around Chattanooga but snow everywhere else in the forum area. Memphis is getting pounded. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Unless it just sharply cuts, looking like a Miller A/slider. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Warm nose is gone and the east is getting pounded by 174. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Still snowing from Nashville to the spine of the Apps and to the TN Ga border at 180. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Yep, huge run forum wide. Low end near the GA border around 3 inches. 6-10+ wide spread. It's -8 imby by 1am Wednesday morning, behind the storm. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 If you wanna see how the whole state can get smoked, 6z GFS is how. This thing just crawls across the entire state, overrunning from the Gulf. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Rain/snow line enters state around hr 135, and exits around 180... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Rain/snow line enters state around hr 135, and exits around 180... Multiple nights in negative territory with deep snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Rain/snow line enters state around hr 135, and exits around 180... Placement will likely change but when this gets in forecast window for local Mets lookout at the store 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: Placement will likely change but when this gets in forecast window for local Mets lookout at the store Yeah, would love to see a sleet map for LA/MS/AL...FZ Rain accum goes all way to Mobile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 West and Middle TN folks may not wanna sleep on this Fri system..6z GEFS continues trend of inching the mean LP eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 26 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Rain/snow line enters state around hr 135, and exits around 180... Hard not to get excited looking at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Hr 90 on 6z GEFs....0z only had about 1/3 of members bringing the backside into the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2" mean on 6z GEFS now basically extends down to I-40 between Memphis and Nashville now for Fri system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Good runs last night. GFS kept MLK storm and Euro supports it. And the 0z Canadian at least tried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Looks like I've picked a good week to login for the first time in a year....even if the storm doesn't pan out in my area, it's fun to watch us get giddy at the prospect of a big snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 If the Euro is right, that is not good for E TN. Miller As will almost always jog NW. Downslope and proximity to what would likely be an Apps runner in reality would be no dice. The GFS is likely too suppressed w/ the Miller A. GREAT trends for portions of middle TN and west TN. Not great trends for E TN once we take into account slp placement bias. Plus, there are many more moving parts w/ a Miller A than an Apps runner. And there is also now in play the opposite of what I said which is...the energy rotates under our forum area, climbs the SE Coast, and misses the region entirely. Again, way more moving parts this morning, unless we area talking the Canadian which is still zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 A slp in central Georgia (tracking to Hatteras) is not what we want in E TN.....What we want is a slp tracking from the Panhandle to Hatteras. Anything more northwest creates downslope in E TN and wrecks thermal profiles. At this very minute, it isn't terrible...but if it takes a likely NW jog, adios for many. An anafront is a much easier solution, and more predictable. That said, having a blizzard on a big cold front is very realistic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Carvers Gap said: A slp in central Georgia (tracking to Hatteras) is not what we want in E TN.....What we want is a slp tracking from the Panhandle to Hatteras. Anything more northwest creates downslope in E TN and wrecks thermal profiles. At this very minute, it isn't terrible...but if it takes a likely NW jog, adios for many. An anafront is a much easier solution, and more predictable. That said, having a blizzard on a big cold front is very realistic. This has been my reservation for this system. This screams cold rain for E TN. But the other portions of the state are due! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, fountainguy97 said: This has been my reservation for this system. This screams cold rain for E TN. But the other portions of the state are due! Not only that, but the 6z GEFS has the worst solution which rotates the energy through the base of the trough, off the NC coast, and misses the eastern half of TN altogether. I don't think that is likely BTW, but that is in play. I noticed it yesterday on some individual members. The big problem is that modeling is losing high pressure above the storm. If we lose hp, it may well cut through middle TN. This is also the timeframe when modeling tends to lose storms or lose original solutions - day 5-7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It is also very important to look at ensembles. The means for the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS actually suppress the system like the CMC does, rotate the energy below the forum, and bring it up the coast. Maybe that is where we want it? Maybe not. But I will say, I do think the operationals are driving the bus and catching trends that the ensembles are likely washing out. Operational trends matter at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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