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January Medium-Long Range Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler
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5 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said:

That was my thinking, too. Like, it's alright for us on weather message board to throw stuff out, but a news station in a large market is a different story. We get off on this kind of stuff, but we also know it may go poof tomorrow.

That said, we're getting snow next week, dangit :P

Well the second thought I had was which one of us on the forum works for channel 4??  lol

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22 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Wind Advisory issued for the Valley.


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Smart move. There have been times I have not been forecasted for wind and I have received large gust. There are also times when the opposite occured. Wind is tough to predict here (as is weather in general) due to the hills, ridges, and general landscape. I have a friend who lives on a hill and it is always breezy. It's like being on the beach. lol Bet he gets some stout gusts tonight and tomorrow, even if I get nada. 

Better safe than sorry, and I don't think the general public will really notice if it doesn't pan out. Good call. 

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49 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Nothing wrong with tracking 7+ days with an active pattern and arctic air moving in makes this much different IMO.


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Tracking is literally why this forum was created.  I hope folks have a blast tracking.  That is why many of us worked to form this forum many years ago.  We split-off from the southeast forum.  I do know that in the past, many have gotten burned tracking at 7+ days.  I know I have.  We have tracked storms for 5 days only to have it vanish with a couple of days to go.   It is worth restating from time to time that things are going to change between now and next Tuesday.   One thing this forum has always been known for is keeping a level head.

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37 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Well the second thought I had was which one of us on the forum works for channel 4??  lol

Definitely not me!!!   I was texted that from a source who is also not affiliated with channel 4!  Lol. 

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Tracking is literally why this forum was created.  I hope folks have a blast tracking.  That is why many of us worked to form this forum many years ago.  We split-off from the southeast forum.  I do know that in the past, many have gotten burned tracking at 7+ days.  I know I have.  We have tracked storms for 5 days only to have it vanish with a couple of days to go.   It is worth restating from time to time that things are going to change between now and next Tuesday.   One thing this forum has always been know for is keeping a level head.

Love this forum.  Great input & learning & lots of great laughs!  This possible winter storm is now showing to possibly to begin Sunday afternoon in the western parts of the state.  So for them it’s under 6 days!!!  lol.  What could go wrong!  ALOT! 

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10 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Love this forum.  Great input & learning & lots of great laughs!  This possible winter storm is now showing to possibly to begin Sunday afternoon in the western parts of the state.  So for them it’s under 6 days!!!  lol.  What could go wrong!  ALOT! 

I once saw a winter storm warning(model feedback big time) for South Carolina and North Carolina which called for 2-4 feet.  One of my college roommates (hosts a show for ESPN now) lives there.  I told him about it.  He was fired up.  I think they got 2-3" of snow at best.  Man, he was HOT!!!  I am pretty sure that he is still mad about it.  I am always afraid that is he is going to remind me of that on live TV while he does one of his game days.  LOL.  So now, I generally refrain from winter wx talk with most of my friends.  Though, I do have some folks who I talk w/ via text (as in 3 people total).  Most of us can speak a language that many don't know(basically wx acronyms).   This is pretty much the only place I talk about extended wx forecasts.   And it is also why I add multiple caveats at this range.

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MRX is talking about how this mountain wave event has the potential to be the strongest in a decade or more! It certainly seems like it is going to be quite a strong event! They don’t use language like that often.

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28 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Definitely not me!!!   I was texted that from a source who is also not affiliated with channel 4!  Lol. 

Assuming that’s WSMV they’ve really deviated from the old days of Bill Hall and the Snow Bird report.  

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This is how suppressed this is getting.  The original axis started over the Ohio Valley.  Now, I am barely on the northern edge of precip.  One more jog south, and I am out.

FWIW, the Canadian is still pretty much a nada at lower elevations.  Need to see it trend on board.

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