tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 3:05 AM, Nash_LSU said: That was my thinking, too. Like, it's alright for us on weather message board to throw stuff out, but a news station in a large market is a different story. We get off on this kind of stuff, but we also know it may go poof tomorrow. That said, we're getting snow next week, dangit Expand Well the second thought I had was which one of us on the forum works for channel 4?? lol 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 3:08 AM, PowellVolz said: Wind Advisory issued for the Valley. . Expand Smart move. There have been times I have not been forecasted for wind and I have received large gust. There are also times when the opposite occured. Wind is tough to predict here (as is weather in general) due to the hills, ridges, and general landscape. I have a friend who lives on a hill and it is always breezy. It's like being on the beach. lol Bet he gets some stout gusts tonight and tomorrow, even if I get nada. Better safe than sorry, and I don't think the general public will really notice if it doesn't pan out. Good call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 3:00 AM, PowellVolz said: Nothing wrong with tracking 7+ days with an active pattern and arctic air moving in makes this much different IMO. . Expand Tracking is literally why this forum was created. I hope folks have a blast tracking. That is why many of us worked to form this forum many years ago. We split-off from the southeast forum. I do know that in the past, many have gotten burned tracking at 7+ days. I know I have. We have tracked storms for 5 days only to have it vanish with a couple of days to go. It is worth restating from time to time that things are going to change between now and next Tuesday. One thing this forum has always been known for is keeping a level head. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 3:12 AM, tnweathernut said: Well the second thought I had was which one of us on the forum works for channel 4?? lol Expand Definitely not me!!! I was texted that from a source who is also not affiliated with channel 4! Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 The 0z GFS is rolling..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 3:46 AM, Carvers Gap said: Tracking is literally why this forum was created. I hope folks have a blast tracking. That is why many of us worked to form this forum many years ago. We split-off from the southeast forum. I do know that in the past, many have gotten burned tracking at 7+ days. I know I have. We have tracked storms for 5 days only to have it vanish with a couple of days to go. It is worth restating from time to time that things are going to change between now and next Tuesday. One thing this forum has always been know for is keeping a level head. Expand Love this forum. Great input & learning & lots of great laughs! This possible winter storm is now showing to possibly to begin Sunday afternoon in the western parts of the state. So for them it’s under 6 days!!! lol. What could go wrong! ALOT! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 3:52 AM, Carvers Gap said: The 0z GFS is rolling..... Expand My anticipation gif is being shown. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Curious what is the Icon model for? Also do they still use the NBM any? Think it was called National Blend Model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 I really have nothing to add to these conversations. I'm basically good for ground reports if it snows or we get severe weather or flooding rains. With that said, I appreciate everyone on here we with the knowledge ya'll share and the great discussions. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 3:53 AM, Matthew70 said: Love this forum. Great input & learning & lots of great laughs! This possible winter storm is now showing to possibly to begin Sunday afternoon in the western parts of the state. So for them it’s under 6 days!!! lol. What could go wrong! ALOT! Expand I once saw a winter storm warning(model feedback big time) for South Carolina and North Carolina which called for 2-4 feet. One of my college roommates (hosts a show for ESPN now) lives there. I told him about it. He was fired up. I think they got 2-3" of snow at best. Man, he was HOT!!! I am pretty sure that he is still mad about it. I am always afraid that is he is going to remind me of that on live TV while he does one of his game days. LOL. So now, I generally refrain from winter wx talk with most of my friends. Though, I do have some folks who I talk w/ via text (as in 3 people total). Most of us can speak a language that many don't know(basically wx acronyms). This is pretty much the only place I talk about extended wx forecasts. And it is also why I add multiple caveats at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 3:55 AM, Matthew70 said: Curious what is the Icon model for? Also do they still use the NBM any? Think it was called National Blend Model. Expand Most weather offices tend to lean on it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 MRX is talking about how this mountain wave event has the potential to be the strongest in a decade or more! It certainly seems like it is going to be quite a strong event! They don’t use language like that often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 At 126, there is slightly more surface cold and hp over the eastern valley. That could easily be scoured, but worth noting as the run progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 At 138, it looks a hair quicker than 18z and maybe the 540 line is 30 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 At 144, snow is breaking out over western portions of the area....hp is a bit stronger over the top. Should be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 At 153, the storm is still potent but weaker and much further south w/ stronger hp over the top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 That's how you get a major, forum wide, winter storm. It's snowing in the 10s and low 20s for some of us as it finishes up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 The GFS sticks w/ the anafront idea. No idea if it is right. The run gets more interesting as the front stalls over E TN at 165 w/ snow well into Mississippi and Alabama. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Knox Co is the big winner on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 That's a "what dreams are made of" kind of snow event. It is frigid, happens during the day, and it snows for 12+ hours for many of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Mainly because Chattanooga is often left out...this one is for you all. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 @John1122is it still the 16th or has it sped up to the 15th? I’m supposed to be flying back home to Knox on the 15th and want to make sure I get home in time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 I've never seen the Canadian so reluctant to gin up a winter storm when the other models are showing it so consistently. It's normally all about some wild snow and cold events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 3:50 AM, Matthew70 said: Definitely not me!!! I was texted that from a source who is also not affiliated with channel 4! Lol. Expand Assuming that’s WSMV they’ve really deviated from the old days of Bill Hall and the Snow Bird report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 4:25 AM, Vol4Life said: @John1122is it still the 16th or has it sped up to the 15th? I’m supposed to be flying back home to Knox on the 15th and want to make sure I get home in time! Expand It arrives the evening of the 15th for the western areas and continues into the evening of the 16th for eastern areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 This is how suppressed this is getting. The original axis started over the Ohio Valley. Now, I am barely on the northern edge of precip. One more jog south, and I am out. FWIW, the Canadian is still pretty much a nada at lower elevations. Need to see it trend on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Nice ridge popping out west… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 4:27 AM, Stovepipe said: Assuming that’s WSMV they’ve really deviated from the old days of Bill Hall and the Snow Bird report. Expand It is WSMV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 The ICON isn't as far south as the GFS but the northern 3/4ths of Tennessee looks to be getting snow on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 4:28 AM, BNAwx said: Nice ridge popping out west… Expand Yeah it is, which leaves open the window for another system after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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