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January Medium-Long Range Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler
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Warm nose? East TN shafted? Book it……this is almost always the final solution no matter how far out.

The control and operation are not on the same page. No reason to be worried at this point.


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6 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

Wouldn’t be surprised to see some clipper action pop up on modeling after the passage of the system on the 15th & 16th.  That’s some stout cold coming down.

Seems like it almost always happens after a super cold air mass. It's not on the latest GFS, but it seems to be fairly common. Anyone know why that's the case? 

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Seems like it almost always happens after a super cold air mass. It's not on the latest GFS, but it seems to be fairly common. Anyone know why that's the case? 

It’s just waves getting picked up in the flow. Similar to what can spark severe weather during the spring.


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15 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

Wouldn’t be surprised to see some clipper action pop up on modeling after the passage of the system on the 15th & 16th.  That’s some stout cold coming down.

Been sometime since we have had one of those Alberta clippers. 

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Schools down this way have begun closing for tomorrow. Crazy I don't recall school closing when I was a kid due to forecast winds. Meigs, McMinn, and Bradley among others have all closed for tomorrow.

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I’m afraid they will be wanting that day back sooner than later


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The Euro Weeklies have a brutal winter pattern - good if you like winter, but man.  The Pacific looks like it kicks into gear later this month ( @John1122 , I know you like that!).  But what a pattern on the Weeklies.  Better enjoy that warmup later this month....is the message from that model.

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One thing that looks quite similar among modeling is the cold for next Tuesday into Wednesday.  That could still easily change at this range.  Again, I have tracked cold shots like this that end in a whimper.  I have also tracked cold shots like this which have verified (Dec '22).  Anafronts are a little less painless to track - I hope that is what it is.  Everyone has chips in that game.  February looks like it will be a phase 8 MJO rotation with blocking, with an active MJO, and with Atlantic blocking.  Does it happen?  No idea.  What is on modeling is probably in the +95th percentile of good weather patterns....which means it has nowhere to go but down!!!!  LOL 

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1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Rain is picking up in west Tennessee along with the wind.  I have seen multiple lightning strikes on my way home from work.  Hearing Plenty of thunder rumbles as well now at home.  Time will tell if this is a good omen!  

Rule is in play!!!!

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The 18z GFS maps are crazy cold and snowy.  Take some time and give them a look.  You all won't see those types of maps very often.
Yeah pretty awesome look, especially if we get snow right at the onset. IMBY it's been a really long time since I had snow that lasted even in patches longer than 3 days, and considering I live on the north side of a ridge which gives lots of protection from solar radiation that says a lot. It's been years for me, probably all the way back to the back to back events in 2014 and before that probably 2007. Basically a decade ago to find snow that lingered on the ground more than 3 days.

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Models "seem" to be getting a bit closer to a solution, and many of us are still in the game.  We are also in the window where storms go "poof" - day 5-7.  Sometimes they reappear and sometimes not.  Still a long way to go.  What I like is the extreme cold is still in play.  I would think a strong front like that would carry precip with it.  Middle and west TN are currently the favorites.  E TN is the wildcard.  As long as the cold front stays relatively north/south in orientation, we have a good shot.  If it goes to more east/west....we have less of a chance.   Most good storms are often spotted at a distance.  All usual caveats apply.

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Was Christmas 2020 anafrontal? What I remember the most is a few days later, WATE Ch 6 gave themselves an “A-“ critique of their forecast. They predicted 1” and parts of Knoxville (my area) ended up with around 6”. They said the trailing energy which produced 90% of the snow “came out of nowhere” and that’s why they missed it. ….. the wave that rode the front was on the mods for days before. Cams were spitting out 3-6” at least 48 hours before it started.


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Just now, PowellVolz said:

Was Christmas 2020 anafrontal? What I remember the most is a few days later, WATE Ch 6 gave themselves an “A-“ critique of their forecast. They predicted 1” and parts of Knoxville (my area) ended up with around 6”. They said the trailing energy which produced 90% of the snow “came out of nowhere” and that’s why they missed it. emoji23.png….. the wave that rode the front was on the mods for days before. Cams were spitting out 3-6” at least 48 hours before it started. emoji1750.png


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It was anafrontal. 

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Models "seem" to be getting a bit closer to a solution, and many of us are still in the game.  We are also in the window where storms go "poof" - day 5-7.  Sometimes they reappear and sometimes not.  Still a long way to go.  What I like is the extreme cold is still in play.  I would think a strong front like that would carry precip with it.  Middle and west TN are currently the favorites.  E TN is the wildcard.  As long as the cold front stays relatively north/south in orientation, we have a good shot.  If it goes to more east/west....we have less of a chance.   Most good storms are often spotted at a distance.  All usual caveats apply.

Seems like Euro is really bad about that.


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