January Medium-Long Range Discussion

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the link to the MJO....It is a "choose your own adventure" mess.  Remember those books?  Click on each model run. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Some refuse to go into warm phases.  Some saunter and smell the roses as they progress through 4-6.  Some hit the wall in 3 and won't progress!  LOL.  And their subsequent model runs reflect those almost exactly.   

Choose your own adventure.

What do I think?  Same as I have.  Good pattern through the 10th(maybe even extended a few days).  Then the pattern goes warm for 15-20 days.  The last of January and all of February work out.  Cosgrove has been really good this winter.  I strongly recommend reading his update which should come out tonight.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If the MJO does spend the next month ambling through 4/5/6, in a strong Nino, after we’ve had years of Nina to reset the PAC SST gradient after the super Nino in 15/16, is there any ENSO state that would favor an active gulf coast storm track AND cold in North America? 
 

Not saying that will happen but it is on the table now. At least we have a decent storm track coming up. 
 

I will say the conflicting MJO convection has tended to produce a stronger Norther jet IMO this year and that has increased model uncertainty at times. 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If the MJO does spend the next month ambling through 4/5/6, in a strong Nino, after we’ve had years of Nina to reset the PAC SST gradient after the super Nino in 15/16, is there any ENSO state that would favor an active gulf coast storm track AND cold in North America? 

Not saying that will happen but it is on the table now. At least we have a decent storm track coming up. 
 

I will say the conflicting MJO convection has tended to produce a stronger Norther jet IMO this year and that has increased model uncertainty at times. 

Sure.  But...I would recommend staying out of the MA forum - LOL.  Some of those cats(during the middle of snowstorm) start looking for the back edge of the snow.  Some are great posters.  The important thing to know is that there are good and bad Nino winters....the 90s have many of the Nino duds.  As recent as 09-10 and 14-15, we have had decent ones.  Will this be a 90s winter or a mid 2010s winter?  We won't know until the end of February.  There were many during the mid/late 90s who questioned whether winter would return.  

MBY yard does better during either a weak La Nina or weak El Nino w/ a negative QBO.  I take either state, but they have to be weak.  If moderate or strong, then it doesn't tend to work.

Is this a strong El Nino?  I haven't looked.  If it is strong, that is a major East Coast warm signal.  I thought it was moderate to weak.  Seems like it is a crashing signal right now.

Really, we have seen two of the last three winters produce incredible winters for the western 2/3 of the forum areas.  Two of those storms were active GOM storm tracks pushing into cold which seeped slowly from the eastern Plains.  We saw Mammoth(not our forum area) get near record snows last winter as well as many places in the West.  I still have bushes in my yard which are struggling from last December's cold shot.

It has been a while since we have had a snowless winter at TRI, but snowless winters are not without precedent(and they generally come in bunches).  Those are the worst.  I lived through multiple, snowless winters during the 90s.  I think at one point, I hadn't seen measurable snow in like two or three years 96-97 to 98-99 were bad....way worse than anything of this past winter.  

The record for this winter hasn't been completely written yet.  If I hadn't seen a wx model, I would say it is about on track for a normal snow winter.  There has been snow in the Smokies, and light snow in the northern valleys.  Warm start -> flips around mid-winter...that is the climatology even if it is a good winter..

For now I like this timeline:

December 31-Jan10 - window for snow

Jan 15-25 - hostile to snow

Jan 28-Feb28 - good window for snow

[Bigbald]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sure.  But...I would recommend staying out of the MA forum - LOL.  Some of those cats(during the middle of snowstorm) start looking for the back edge of the snow.  Some are great posters.  The important thing to know is that there are good and bad Nino winters....the 90s have many of the Nino duds.  As recent as 09-10 and 14-15, we have had decent ones.  Will this be a 90s winter or a mid 2010s winter?  We won't know until the end of February.  There were many during the mid/late 90s who questioned whether winter would return.  

MBY yard does better during either a weak La Nina or weak El Nino w/ a negative QBO.  I take either state, but they have to be weak.  If moderate or strong, then it doesn't tend to work.

Is this a strong El Nino?  I haven't looked.  If it is strong, that is a major East Coast warm signal.  I thought it was moderate to weak.  Seems like it is a crashing signal right now.

Really, we have seen two of the last three winters produce incredible winters for the western 2/3 of the forum areas.  Two of those storms were active GOM storm tracks pushing into cold which seeped slowly from the eastern Plains.  We saw Mammoth(not our forum area) get near record snows last winter as well as many places in the West.  I still have bushes in my yard which are struggling from last December's cold shot.

It has been a while since we have had a snowless winter at TRI, but snowless winters are not without precedent(and they generally come in bunches).  Those are the worst.  I lived through multiple, snowless winters during the 90s.  I think at one point, I hadn't seen measurable snow in like two or three years 96-97 to 98-99 were bad....way worse than anything of this past winter.  

The record for this winter hasn't been completely written yet.  If I hadn't seen a wx model, I would say it is about on track for a normal snow winter.  There has been snow in the Smokies, and light snow in the northern valleys.  Warm start -> flips around mid-winter...that is the climatology even if it is a good winter..

For now I like this timeline:

December 31-Jan10 - window for snow

Jan 15-25 - hostile to snow

Jan 28-Feb28 - good window for snow

Carver, I am sure you have seen this graphic, wonder what the projection for 2001-2030 are at for ktri. 7 inches? We getting halved from 9.2?

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Complex for sure at this range.  The complexity itself likely means it changes many times between now and the event as you all noted.

I'll take a stab at it.  Weak low pressure - almost a lee side Plateau low.  Probably is a handoff to the Piedmont/Coast.  Downsloping city right there.  Air gets compressed, heats up, and we get warm air on the west side of the Apps...and less precip.  Add in some warm nose, and you get that look. On the west side of the eastern valley...cold air gets pushed by counter clockwise flow up against the Plateau.  The cold has nowhere to go.  Th precip rises through the cold air, further cooling the air column, and you get rates induced snow.  I have seen nearly that exact setup during ice storms.  I have had 30 degrees at TRI, and 40 in JC/Unicoi.  

Saw similar outcome in the big Jan 2016 Storm. Heavy Snow west and east of the great Valley. Mixed mess Valley. Wound up with just 4 inches at my house then. Oddly, portions of the County easily doubled that. 

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Carver, I am sure you have seen this graphic, wonder what the projection for 2001-2030 are at for ktri. 7 inches? We getting halved from 9.2?

My response should probably go in banter.  Considering I have had a White Christmas two of the last for years(rarely had one as a kid), I generally don't sweat things too much.  I also know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there is data missing from the 95-96 winters and others.  I have also seen snow taken out of recent reports(my own reports discounted).   I have screenshots of my conversations w/ MRX, MRX's own graphs which show the 95-96 snowfall, and an M next to days(on the record) where it snowed.  The snow record at TRI is as corrupted as any I have seen.  Honestly, it makes me angry to see what has been done to it.  I generally have to rely on @John1122's records (he is about 150 miles west of me and at a higher elevation).  I don't know if it is political or just poor record keeping by past individuals.  And MRX has some great, current mets...but someone has taken out snowfall data and won't record bigger results during even during the most recent storms.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Saw similar outcome in the big Jan 2016 Storm. Heavy Snow west and east of the great Valley. Mixed mess Valley. Wound up with just 4 inches at my house then. Oddly, portions of the County easily doubled that. 

Yes, we live in a place(greater TRI area) where strange stuff happens during snowstorms.  I remember when @BlunderStormcouldn't buy a flake of snow one winter due to an odd snow shadow there that was only prevalent that winter due to the angle of approach of many of the storms.  I have seen Johnson City crippled by snow, and only had 2-3" IMBY.  As I noted above, it seems TRI almost always has the lowest denominator total recorded - very suspicious.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

My response should probably go in banter.  Considering I have had a White Christmas two of the last for years(rarely had one as a kid), I generally don't sweat things too much.  I also know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there is data missing from the 95-96 winters and others.  I have also seen snow taken out of recent reports(my own reports discounted).   I have screenshots of my conversations w/ MRX, MRX's own graphs which show the 95-96 snowfall, and an M next to days(on the record) where it snowed.  The snow record at TRI is as corrupted as any I have seen.  Honestly, it makes me angry to see what has been done to it.  I generally have to rely on @John1122's records (he is about 150 miles west of me and at a higher elevation).  I don't know if it is political or just poor records keeping by past individuals.  And MRX has some great, current mets...but someone has taken out snowfall data and won't record bigger results during even the most recent storms.

I'll second that. Same with the so called official Pennington gap Site. It's just awful how poorly recorded and kept the Data is. It may not be political but, it looks it regardless. Climate agenda . 

 

        

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

I'll second that. Same with the so called official Pennington gap Site. It's just awful how poorly recorded and kept the Data is. It may not be political but, it looks it regardless. Climate agenda . 

 

        

Yep. 14-15 was a winter where I also noticed data missing.  I recorded almost 30" at my house, and I live in the bubble at lower elevations.  But I know this, the snowfall maps made for TRI snowstorms(after the fact) are almost always underdone by 1-2" of snow, sometimes more.   I used to correct the maps, but have since stopped.  It isn't worth my time.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I'll second that. Same with the so called official Pennington gap Site. It's just awful how poorly recorded and kept the Data is. It may not be political but, it looks it regardless. Climate agenda . 

 

        

The TYS snow record is also a mess....it might be worse than TRI.  

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yes, we live in a place(greater TRI area) where strange stuff happens during snowstorms.  I remember when @BlunderStormcouldn't buy a flake of snow one winter due to an odd snow shadow there that was only prevalent that winter due to the angle of approach of many of the storms.  I have seen Johnson City crippled by snow, and only had 2-3" IMBY.  As I noted above, it seems TRI almost always has the lowest denominator total recorded - very suspicious.

Likely this one.  Should probably also put this in banter, but it's not like we are tracking, so I will put it here.  If a mod wants to move it, so be it.

Deaths blamed on heavy Appalachian snowfall

http://www.cnn.com/WEATHER/9801/29/winter.storm/traffic.boone.jpg
Commuters brave icy roads in Boone, North Carolina

January 29, 1998
Web posted at: 12:38 p.m. EDT (1238 GMT)

(CNN) -- At least nine deaths were blamed Thursday on a storm that dumped several feet of snow on the central Appalachians starting Tuesday night, clogging highways with ice, snow, and snowbound vehicles.

The storm also took out electrical service for thousands of customers in eastern Tennessee, West Virginia and North Carolina; by early Thursday morning, 258,000 households in those states were still without power.

The storm had largely turned to rain on the coast by Wednesday, stirring up a pounding surf that pulled one empty house and part of another into the Atlantic Ocean near Virginia Beach, Virginia.

The South looks more like the North
http://www.cnn.com/images/9706/qt_icon.gif	786K/21 sec. QuickTime movie

But it was the heavy snow that caught the region off-guard. "This was worse than the blizzard of February 1993," said Bobbie Freeman, the fire chief of Jonesborough, Tennessee. "This snow was so wet that trees were coming down everywhere."

Buildings collapse under snow's weight

http://www.cnn.com/WEATHER/9801/29/winter.storm/tree.wv.jpg
allen tree limbs damage power lines in Beckley, West Virginia

Power remained out in parts of the state, with 80,000 to 90,000 people in northeastern Tennessee still coping without electrical service by Thursday morning.

Tennessee's Carter County was hit especially hard by the storm. Up to 4 feet of snow fell on the county's Roan Mountain; flooding in Carter County just 2 1/2 weeks ago killed seven people. About 75 percent of the county had no power, and it could be five days before service is restored, said Sheriff John Henson.

"We need a break -- a flood one week and a blizzard the next," he said. "I don't know what will come next."

The Tennessee National Guard and the Red Cross were providing transportation, manpower and shelters, and the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency has sent personnel to help the local emergency management agencies.

National Guard comes to aid of stranded

In North Carolina, where the National Guard had been rescuing stranded motorists and taking them to emergency shelters, the snow had begun to melt, allowing traffic along the state's Interstate 40 to start moving again by Thursday.

However, melting snow was expected to turn to ice by Thursday night, making travel conditions even trickier.

Meanwhile, 12 eastern and southern West Virginia counties were still under a state of emergency. Beckley, West Virginia, received 32 inches of snow, and wasn't expected to get its roads cleared until Thursday at the earliest.

"There's got to be somebody in West Virginia with a front-end loader and a dump truck," said William Summers, a South Carolina driver bound for Canada. "If this was the highway commissioner's wife and kids, we would have left here yesterday. It's ridiculous."

And the storm's slow sweep over Virginia left behind three dead, two from traffic accidents. A third Virginia man died of an asthma attack while stranded in his rural home.

The storm system dumped 20 inches of snow in parts of the state's southwest mountains, and more than 3 inches of rain east and north of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Tides were up to 4 feet above normal.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Yep. 14-15 was a winter where I also noticed data missing.  I recorded almost 30" at my house, and I live in the bubble at lower elevations.  But I know this, the snowfall maps made for TRI snowstorms(after the fact) are almost always underdone by 1-2" of snow, sometimes more.   I used to correct the maps, but have since stopped.  It isn't worth my time.

Yeah, I noticed that too. I wonder what they show for Lee County that Winter. ?. The range was 35 to over 50 inches (excluding Mountain tops). 

[Daniel Boone]

Carvers, of course that's just a conspiracy theory from us regarding the political agenda, lol. 

[John1122]

I've not read it all yet, but there's a direct relationship for MJO location and strength during winter months with a falling QBO/Easterly QBO. They haven't figured out what causes the link and models struggle with it more than normal because they don't know yet what's the connection. Only that it has a 95% correlation and it definitely happens. 

[BuCoVaWx]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yes, we live in a place(greater TRI area) where strange stuff happens during snowstorms.  I remember when @BlunderStormcouldn't buy a flake of snow one winter due to an odd snow shadow there that was only prevalent that winter due to the angle of approach of many of the storms.  I have seen Johnson City crippled by snow, and only had 2-3" IMBY.  As I noted above, it seems TRI almost always has the lowest denominator total recorded - very suspicious.

I'm about 20-30 miles west of @BlunderStorm, but I remember as recently as 2018 (if I'm not mistaken) Abingdon received nearly a foot of snow, possibly more. We ended up with a cold rain. Very wild how things can differ in such short distances.

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

My response should probably go in banter.  Considering I have had a White Christmas two of the last for years(rarely had one as a kid), I generally don't sweat things too much.  I also know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there is data missing from the 95-96 winters and others.  I have also seen snow taken out of recent reports(my own reports discounted).   I have screenshots of my conversations w/ MRX, MRX's own graphs which show the 95-96 snowfall, and an M next to days(on the record) where it snowed.  The snow record at TRI is as corrupted as any I have seen.  Honestly, it makes me angry to see what has been done to it.  I generally have to rely on @John1122's records (he is about 150 miles west of me and at a higher elevation).  I don't know if it is political or just poor record keeping by past individuals.  And MRX has some great, current mets...but someone has taken out snowfall data and won't record bigger results during even during the most recent storms.

The maps they put out are horrible and worse, they change. The last huge blunder, and I noted it at the time, the March snowfall maps from our big storm were off by several inches at first, then the final map ended up just blanking all of Scott County, where I know for a fact 6 to 8 inches fell. I had 11 inches and it showed 10, then the final map showed 3 or 4 inches. 

1995-96 for the longest time showed Tri-Cities with around 3 inches total for January and a similar amount for February. 

I have the Knoxville News Sentinel that I posted for the February 1996 storm and it clearly says many areas had 14-16 inches, including Knoxville. The official record for McGhee-Tyson for February 1996 is 0.9 inches. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Carvers, of course that's just a conspiracy theory from us regarding the political agenda, lol. 

LOL.  Of course....

But for sure the least common denominator gets placed into the record about 90% of the time regarding snowfall.  Now, there is no arguing from me that the last three years have been less during January and February for TRI.  La Nina climatology(moderate or strong) is just a beast for TRI, and not in a good way.  Now, December snows for the last 15 years are way, way up for me.  This year didn't really have that, but the early, intense cold is reminded me a lot of 89-90.   The problem is that snowfall averages IMHO are going down at a faster rate than they should be for TRI.  For places like Chattanooga and Atlanta, the 10 year averages are probably more accurate.  Now, the Plateau westward have had banner winters prior to this last one.  

My plant hardiness zone has changed bizarrely after last December pretty much killed every plant and shrub that was on the "edge" of the old zone.  Interestingly, in central Florida they used to have loads of orange groves.  The climate supported them...until it didn't. During the early 80s when I lived there, the groves were wiped out by severe freezes.  I still don't think they can survive there without huge financial risks.  Now, due to population growth and financial risk, one would be hard pressed to find the density of orange trees that once were in that area.  I remember, after the freezes, seeing dead orange trees as far as one could see.  

 

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

My response should probably go in banter.  Considering I have had a White Christmas two of the last for years(rarely had one as a kid), I generally don't sweat things too much.  I also know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there is data missing from the 95-96 winters and others.  I have also seen snow taken out of recent reports(my own reports discounted).   I have screenshots of my conversations w/ MRX, MRX's own graphs which show the 95-96 snowfall, and an M next to days(on the record) where it snowed.  The snow record at TRI is as corrupted as any I have seen.  Honestly, it makes me angry to see what has been done to it.  I generally have to rely on @John1122's records (he is about 150 miles west of me and at a higher elevation).  I don't know if it is political or just poor record keeping by past individuals.  And MRX has some great, current mets...but someone has taken out snowfall data and won't record bigger results during even during the most recent storms.

Interesting.  This would be a good discussion to talk about as to why.  Is this also possible or true for other wx offices?  Is data missing there also?  Is it political or just lazy.  

[Matthew70]

39 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The maps they put out are horrible and worse, they change. The last huge blunder, and I noted it at the time, the March snowfall maps from our big storm were off by several inches at first, then the final map ended up just blanking all of Scott County, where I know for a fact 6 to 8 inches fell. I had 11 inches and it showed 10, then the final map showed 3 or 4 inches. 

1995-96 for the longest time showed Tri-Cities with around 3 inches total for January and a similar amount for February. 

I have the Knoxville News Sentinel that I posted for the February 1996 storm and it clearly says many areas had 14-16 inches, including Knoxville. The official record for McGhee-Tyson for February 1996 is 0.9 inches. 

So it makes me pause & wonder do they make us believe winters are more snowless now than they really are to fit a certain agenda.  Is it predictive programming.  Are places really having snow yet they tell us they are not. Interesting.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I've not read it all yet, but there's a direct relationship for MJO location and strength during winter months with a falling QBO/Easterly QBO. They haven't figured out what causes the link and models struggle with it more than normal because they don't know yet what's the connection. Only that it has a 95% correlation and it definitely happens. 

When I first started following the weather, I don't remember many folks talking about the MJO or the Indian Ocean.   Our weather now is almost completely driven by the Pacific.  I am not sure if that is because the NAO was in a positive state for so long(fewer negative episodes), or if the PDO has been stronger driver and it has links to the MJO.

I think the PDO is sneaky important.  It correlates (normally, but maybe not right now) with the Nino/Nina cycle which also has some connection to the MJO.  But I wonder where we think the MJO/ENSO state is the most important...I wonder if the PDO is the trump card and the reason we haven't figured that out is that it is most times in sync w/ ENSO.  That PDO really sets the trough/ridge setup in NA.

[Matthew70]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Of course....

But for sure the least common denominator gets placed into the record about 90% of the time regarding snowfall.  Now, there is no arguing from me that the last three years have been less during January and February for TRI.  La Nina climatology(moderate or strong) is just a beast for TRI, and not in a good way.  Now, December snows for the last 15 years are way, way up for me.  This year didn't really have that, but the early, intense cold is reminded me a lot of 89-90.   The problem is that snowfall averages IMHO are going down at a faster rate than they should be for TRI.  For places like Chattanooga and Atlanta, the 10 year averages are probably more accurate.  Now, the Plateau westward have had banner winters prior to this last one.  

My plant hardiness zone has changed bizarrely after last December pretty much killed every plant and shrub that was on the "edge" of the old zone.  Interestingly, in central Florida they used to have loads of orange groves.  The climate supported them...until it didn't. During the early 80s when I lived there, the groves were wiped out by severe freezes.  I still don't think they can survive there without huge financial risks.  Now, due to population growth and financial risk, one would be hard pressed to find the density of orange trees that once were in that area.  I remember, after the freezes, seeing dead orange trees as far as one could see.  

 

The flash freeze last December destroyed much of my shrubs. I have replaced them but any time a flash freeze occurs like that.  Most likely it will kill my new ones even though they are cold hardy.  One can still see the damage to shrubs all around here.  Places just don’t have the $ to replace them all.  

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

When I first started following the weather, I don't remember many folks talking about the MJO or the Indian Ocean.   Our weather now is almost completely driven by the Pacific.  I am not sure if that is because the NAO was in a positive state for so long(fewer negative episodes), or if the PDO has been stronger driver and it has links to the MJO.

I think the PDO is sneaky important.  It correlates (normally, but maybe not right now) with the Nino/Nina cycle which also has some connection to the MJO.  But I wonder where we think the MJO/ENSO state is the most important...I wonder if the PDO is the trump card and the reason we haven't figured that out is that it is most times in sync w/ ENSO.  That PDO really sets the trough/ridge setup in NA.

Funny you say that.  When I started following also.  All I ever heard was about the AO/NAO/PNA. Never once heard about the MJO.  Now it’s all about the MJO.  Honestly it would not surprise me if another gets added to this group in the next few years.  One thing is for certain.  We are nowhere close to understanding wx.  

[Carvers Gap]

I will work-up a response to the "why" the data is corrupted, but I will tread lightly.  It will be in the banter section at some point.

Anyway, here is the 12z GEPS in the LR.  The GEFS isn't too different.  That ain't warm.  I would urge caution on borrowing trouble w/ the warm-up which likely follows.  The warm-up is likely during week 3, but the Canadian model doesn't have it yet.  I have seen it snow like crazy during warm-ups as well.  If we take that the current pattern began that day after Christmas, I tend to think this current pattern lasts until mid-Jan at least.  We may be in a deal where we are in a 2-3 week pattern cycle instead of a 4-6.  That said, Cosgrove mentioned often that January thaws are very normal and expected.  We also need to be cautious that some of what we see during weeks 3-4 may be a transition to a newer pattern which we can't see....alt that we can see is the transition.  We also need to remember that we live east of the Apps and not in the MA.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Some pretty big differences in the 12z EPS when compared to 0z.

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro ensembles have BN temps through mid-Jan.  We can ride with that and worry about the rest later.  

[Carvers Gap]

To me this is remarkable.  Within the next 10 days, look at the potential change from AN to BN over the continent.  And that lower image only slowly burns itself out after that slide.....  Those are ensemble temp departures during our coldest time of the year.  So, if true, those are really cold temps.  The 12z EPS is much colder.  Let's see if that trend holds.

 

[nrgjeff]

China is still cold, the surface high has settled in, and China wx/precip has quieted down. AN snow remains under clearing skies. US MIdwest has some AN snow. Otherwise the hemisphere is BN.
Surface press is below. I see hurry up and wait on the next big cold push into the US.
The seasonable cold South mild North should continue until then. Just with no really cold North source it's tough to be cold enough for anything good. See KCHA cold rain this am.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS is just crazy cold, both the ensemble and control.  The control has portions of Nashville and southern KY below zero by mid month due to snowfall.  That coincides with the GEPS also being cold at 12z.  Could be a blip...might not be.  The timeframe from Jan10-14 looks pretty cold here, and it isn't overly warm prior to that.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Of course....

But for sure the least common denominator gets placed into the record about 90% of the time regarding snowfall.  Now, there is no arguing from me that the last three years have been less during January and February for TRI.  La Nina climatology(moderate or strong) is just a beast for TRI, and not in a good way.  Now, December snows for the last 15 years are way, way up for me.  This year didn't really have that, but the early, intense cold is reminded me a lot of 89-90.   The problem is that snowfall averages IMHO are going down at a faster rate than they should be for TRI.  For places like Chattanooga and Atlanta, the 10 year averages are probably more accurate.  Now, the Plateau westward have had banner winters prior to this last one.  

My plant hardiness zone has changed bizarrely after last December pretty much killed every plant and shrub that was on the "edge" of the old zone.  Interestingly, in central Florida they used to have loads of orange groves.  The climate supported them...until it didn't. During the early 80s when I lived there, the groves were wiped out by severe freezes.  I still don't think they can survive there without huge financial risks.  Now, due to population growth and financial risk, one would be hard pressed to find the density of orange trees that once were in that area.  I remember, after the freezes, seeing dead orange trees as far as one could see.  

 

Yeah agree 100%. Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley Snowfall averages actually went up the last five years. 

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah agree 100%. Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley Snowfall averages actually went up the last five years. 

Which makes sense given that the 2010s were full of La Ninas.