John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Apps runner this go. Plateau and West cashes in. That's as far east as it gets with frozen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Shreveport is due John. Yea looks like a good run to me but I am in Middle - we all know that the next run will be different - big story here is the wind especially in the eastern part of the state over night and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Shreveport is due John. Snowing on the Gulf Coast beaches and raining in the Apps of East Tennessee is normal. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I don't remember cold fronts being this strong during El Nino winters...maybe 09-10? That is almost a La Nina set-up. How close is the GFS to a '96 look? Does it need to be flatter further east or just a bigger wave on the front and slower? Yeah, got alot of '96 look there. Btw, take a look at MJO Ph 5 Nino 500 look. Very similar to the 15-20 Euro Depiction. However, blocking is stronger than the composite therefore the colder further south look on the Model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I will say that the trend for storms, as has been noted, is SE not NW so far this year. So hopefully the SE/Atl ridge that causes that Apps runner is actually weaker or further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 That one is is a middle TN and west TN crusher....eastern Cumberland Plateau and eastern valley get goosed! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 It’ll be interesting to see how it looks once the big cutters this week pump up the NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The good thing for those in eastern areas....that look is very likely to change some. Modeling has shifted drastically eastward during the past 4-5 runs. On the positive note, models often lock-in big storms from long distances. Right now the cone is the MS River to the Apps. At 174 hours though, that is a LONG way to go....still seven days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 My money is on a. slider w/ a wave on it through the Piedmont, but I play with fake money. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Kuchera maps are crazy big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Wind chills and temperatures are well below zero. And that isn't the GFS running those numbers. The wind chills for the Euro are 20-30 below zero. Highs are in 0-5 above zero. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Wind chills and temperatures are well below zero. And that isn't the GFS running those numbers. The wind chills for the Euro are 20-30 below zero. Highs are in 0-5 above zero. Wow. No kidding My high on the 16th is 4 on the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The Euro also sped that storm up a lot. It's big storm from 00z actually really got rolling over the area on the 16th. It was a full day earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Kuchera maps are crazy big. for those interested. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 So right now we have GFS: ana front CMC: nada front Euro: Appa front 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 If it’s going to get that cold, I sure hope we do have snow to cover my new landscape so it does not get killed by the freezing temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Give me 50% of that and happy times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 And very much like the 12z GFS, the pattern after the storm brings western ridging and slows the decay of the block. I would almost bet there will be another, northern stream system which follows. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That one is is a middle TN and west TN crusher....eastern Cumberland Plateau and eastern valley get goosed! LOL. Me next week: 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And very much like the 12z GFS, the pattern after the storm brings western ridging and slows the decay of the block. I would almost bet there will be another, northern stream system which follows. If that is the case, hopefully those that miss the first can get the second 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Me next week: That’s some funny stuff there. I do hope that we all cash in though I do love that map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Me next week: This is now legend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 Euro control looked a bit flatter with the storm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 We are gonna need to get some support from the EPS. It has some ana front stuff, but not a single member supports the deterministic. Now, it easily could be the deterministic is leading the ensemble. I wouldn't be surprised at all. edit: regarding snow totals, I didn't see the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The actual ensemble (and it would wash-out an extreme storm) has high pressure limiting the advance northward of the storm. As a matter of fact, the mean goes out to sea just like the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The 12z EPS mean is an anafront in conjunction w/ a final wave riding into E TN. But with those cold temps, a few tenths of precip could equal 4-5" of snow for most locals. That is where my money is right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 I think East TN would like member 41: 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 The Control wanted to sling another similar storm at us later in the run: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The Control wanted to sling another similar storm at us later in the run: Good find. I hesitate to use this phrase...but the pattern is pretty loaded as both the Euro and GFS lock that trough in. This morning, the trough lifted out as opposed to 12z where it left it in tact. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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