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January Medium-Long Range Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler
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3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Shreveport is due John. 

Yea looks like a good run to me but I am in Middle - we all know that the next run will be different - big story here is the wind especially in the eastern part of the state over night and tomorrow 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't remember cold fronts being this strong during El Nino winters...maybe 09-10?  That is almost a La Nina set-up.  How close is the GFS to a '96 look?  Does it need to be flatter further east or just a bigger wave on the front and slower?

Yeah, got alot of '96 look there. Btw, take a look at MJO Ph 5 Nino 500 look. Very similar to the 15-20 Euro Depiction. However, blocking is stronger than the composite therefore the colder further south look on the Model.

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The good thing for those in eastern areas....that look is very likely to change some.  Modeling has shifted drastically eastward during the past 4-5 runs.  On the positive note, models often lock-in big storms from long distances.  Right now the cone is the MS River to the Apps.  At 174 hours though, that is a LONG way to go....still seven days out.

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5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And very much like the 12z GFS, the pattern after the storm brings western ridging and slows the decay of the block.  I would almost bet there will be another, northern stream system which follows.  

If that is the case, hopefully those that miss the first can get the second 

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We are gonna need to get some support from the EPS.  It has some ana front stuff, but not a single member supports the deterministic.  Now, it easily could be the deterministic is leading the ensemble.  I wouldn't be surprised at all.  

edit: regarding snow totals, I didn't see the track.

 

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5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The Control wanted to sling another similar storm at us later in the run:

giphy.gif

 

 

Good find.  I hesitate to use this phrase...but the pattern is pretty loaded as both the Euro and GFS lock that trough in.  This morning, the trough lifted out as opposed to 12z where it left it in tact.

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