Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: I’m sure they meant Plateau. Trailing snow showers have been over performing in E TN w/ the last few systems. Nothing big, but decent. So, tough to know. Good little pattern that we are in for the next 7-10 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: This reminds me of the Christmas storm from a few years ago(Jan 16h). If we can catch a wave (without a warm nose), we could be in business. We will see. Still in the game, so that is good. Right now I see this being a mixed bag for much of the forum area. Hopefully not all out ice storm. As usual I40 is the battle zone. I do believe the colder air will be further south. Models struggle with it as we all know. Fun to be able to track & chat about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This reminds me of the Christmas storm from a few years ago(Jan 16h). If we can catch a wave (without a warm nose), we could be in business. We will see. Still in the game, so that is good. Yeah, the Christmas 2020 one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Right now I see this being a mixed bag for much of the forum area. Hopefully not all out ice storm. As usual I40 is the battle zone. I do believe the colder air will be further south. Models struggle with it as we all know. Fun to be able to track & chat about. Tough to tell. The 12z cmc is a big nada. The 12z GFS is basically one big cold front crashing eastward. Really the only difference between the two is the GFS has what is called an anafront - and I am still not sure that I am using the right term there. Basically the cold air just plows under the warm air and forces the warm/moist air to rise. Rising air produces precip. The big thing is the precip is behind the from on the GFS and in front of it on the CMC. The GFS solution makes good sense since the air behind it is so cold. And....the cold will be coming across new snow in the MidWest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Tough to tell. The 12z cmc is a big nada. The 12z GFS is basically one big cold front crashing eastward. Really the only difference between the two is the GFS has what is called an anafront - and I am still not sure that I am using the right term there. Basically the cold air just plows under the warm air and forces the warm/moist air to rise. Rising air produces precip. The big thing is the precip is behind the from on the GFS and in front of it on the CMC. The GFS solution makes good sense since the air behind it is so cold. And....the cold will be coming across new snow in the MidWest. You are correct in calling it an anafront. We have had a few of those in the past. Rare but happens occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Tough to tell. The 12z cmc is a big nada. The 12z GFS is basically one big cold front crashing eastward. Really the only difference between the two is the GFS has what is called an anafront - and I am still not sure that I am using the right term there. Basically the cold air just plows under the warm air and forces the warm/moist air to rise. Rising air produces precip. The big thing is the precip is behind the from on the GFS and in front of it on the CMC. The GFS solution makes good sense since the air behind it is so cold. And....the cold will be coming across new snow in the MidWest. The CMC is it really ever right? Seems it’s the Hail Mary of models to me. Lol. Kinda like the Icon. Would be funny to see the DGEX clown maps these days. Those were always hilarious to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 That is awfully close to a '96 redux if I have the storm correct. Take a minute and look in the Lakes...there is the problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: The CMC is it really ever right? Seems it’s the Hail Mary of models to me. Lol. Kinda like the Icon. Would be funny to see the DGEX clown maps these days. Those were always hilarious to see. Yes, especially with these setups where it is cold. I don't think its physics are quite as good for storm details. Now, its short range model (RGEM) is money. It is better for getting long wave patterns correct IMHO. We used to call it the Crazy Uncle. It is the only model which correctly caught the cold - but it is always cold, so it maybe it is a blind chicken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The great thing about the GFS on this run is that it doesn't break down the block too quickly and inexplicably. Slider inbound after the 16th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That is awfully close to a '96 redux if I have the storm correct. Take a minute and look in the Lakes...there is the problem. We get about another 150 mile push south with the colder air. ALL of TN will be in a sweet spot. One can hope for ALL of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 No idea if correct, but that is a beautiful pattern after the Tuesday system next week on both the CMC and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Matthew70 said: We get about another 150 mile push south with the colder air. ALL of TN will be in a sweet spot. One can hope for ALL of us. Again, a long way to go, but that run will work for most of the forum area. What comes behind it is potentially even better. The GFS broke the pattern down quickly at 6z, so this is a nice bonus if real. That nice, bowl shaped trough that follows is generally money. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Both operationals match their ensembles in terms of temp profiles on the macro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 19 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, the Christmas 2020 one. I don't remember cold fronts being this strong during El Nino winters...maybe 09-10? That is almost a La Nina set-up. How close is the GFS to a '96 look? Does it need to be flatter further east or just a bigger wave on the front and slower? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 That was a big change by the GFS, going from a true Miller A to a frontal passage with a wave. Curious to see if the ensembles also abandon the miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I lived in Memphis in 96 and remember it quite well. Originally Memphis was supposed to get more than Nashville and Knoxville, but the storm ended up being further south and east than originally thought. Now, Memphis picked up some snow but it was only about 1-3 in depending on where you were. There was a sharp gradient across the river in AR where there was nothing. I remember thinking “I sure do wish I lived in East TN” haha! Little did I know that I would someday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, John1122 said: That was a big change by the GFS, going from a true Miller A to a frontal passage with a wave. Curious to see if the ensembles also abandon the miller A. Wasn't it showing a stalled out front with waves riding 3-4 days ago, is this a return? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The 12z GEFS ensembles look like 0z - not 6z. Looks like a massive cold front just pukes snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 For some locals, the 12z GEFS has temps twenty-five degrees BN at 7 days out. Pretty rare to see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Wasn't it showing a stalled out front with waves riding 3-4 days ago, is this a return? It was a cutter initially, then an apps runner, then it had been a miller A ever since. It's possible it had a run as a wave on a front but I can't remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Ensemble members look like a slider/wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Looks like maybe a wave rotation around the base of the trough as the cold rolls in re: GEFS. The GEPS has zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 If posting the full, 8-day ensemble, it is important to remember that some snow falls this weekend, and there is a little system in between this weekend and Tuesday that modeling is finding. The ICON has it. The 96 hour GEFS map is a BIG uptick from the previous five runs for just that Tuesday storm. Probably as 2.5-4" for most of the forum. Not bad at this range, and lots of big hitters on the individual maps. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Incoming on the Euro, at least for the guys and gals on the west side. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Warm nose doing warm nose things towards the East, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Slider? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Low is up into Central Alabama, if it runs the Apps Mid and West Tennessee will get smoked and Eastern areas are gonna rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Warm nose from hades. 51 in Knoxville and 30 in Cookeville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 Just now, John1122 said: Low is up into Central Alabama, if it runs the Apps Mid and West Tennessee will get smoked and Eastern areas are gonna rain. Shreveport is due John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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