Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 16 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: My mistake. Somehow mixed up with 58. 2 duds that way, 59 and 04. LOL. I used to like it. 58-59 had a cold December if I remember correctly, and ho-hum temps for the rest of winter. Not terrible, but very similar up to this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: LOL. I used to like it. 58-59 had a cold December if I remember correctly, and ho-hum temps for the rest of winter. Not terrible, but very similar up to this point. Yeah, and the 04 had a good December (03) with cold and snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Man, Tuesday looks to be intense. Up to 2 inches of rain in spots and the wind. It is like a hurricane higher up! Anyway, I am not a severe weather guy, but can we can expect any lightning? Not really sure how to look for that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This is gonna be a wild ride. The 18z EPS...not a bad trend. The MA has some discussion about it. Moves the trough around 150...further eastward. Hope that trend continues - I think I hope that it continues. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is gonna be a wild ride. The 18z EPS...not a bad trend. The MA has some discussion about it. Moves the trough around 150...further eastward. Hope that trend continues - I think I hope that it continues. Further East should be better, at least irt the Cold push into the area and squashing the SER. May serve to cause suppression but, I'd take my chances on further East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is gonna be a wild ride. The 18z EPS...not a bad trend. The MA has some discussion about it. Moves the trough around 150...further eastward. Hope that trend continues - I think I hope that it continues. I could see this being a big surprise for much of the forum area. Now not saying it will be snow but ice could be the major issue. Having such cold air so close spells surprises many of the times for the mid south. If the LP is 150 miles more SE then look out. Either way we are going to get beneficial rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Further East should be better, at least irt the Cold push into the area and squashing the SER. May serve to cause suppression but, I'd take my chances on further East. The run goes out to 144, and at 500 it is further East. It would likely not let the following storm dig into the southwest. But just one run of many up to this point and going forward as well. Again, my main concern for the 16th energy is that it slides under us and misses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: I could see this being a big surprise for much of the forum area. Now not saying it will be snow but ice could be the major issue. Having such cold air so close spells surprises many of the times for the mid south. If the LP is 150 miles more SE then look out. Either way we are going to get beneficial rains. So that there is no confusion, I am talking about the storm on the 16th and not this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: So that there is no confusion, I am talking about the storm on the 16th and not this weekend. That’s the one I am also talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 That 1-16-59 analog produced a wide spread 2-5, inch snow around the area followed by highs around 20 and lows around 0. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 0z GFS with a 963mb Low over northern Ohio/southern MI at 132hrs-if you thought the wind was going to be a problem with the system tomorrow! Wow! That low on this run strengthens into a hurricane blizzard for the Ohio valley! I’m surprised there wasn’t more wraparound precip even here with that solution! That was crazy! And, yep, that would definitely pull some cold air down geeze. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, Jed33 said: 0z GFS with a 963mb Low over northern Ohio/southern MI at 132hrs-if you thought the wind was going to be a problem with the system tomorrow! Wow! That low on this run strengthens into a hurricane blizzard for the Ohio valley! I’m surprised there wasn’t more wraparound precip even here with that solution! That was crazy! And, yep, that would definitely pull some cold air down geeze. Yeah, looks like a full fledged Blizzard for the western OV and Midwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The GEFS mean keeps rising. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 24 hr probs of more than 4 inches of snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The GEFS mean keeps rising. Yeah was just looking at that, as far as individual members it's definitely monsters or nothing. Wherever these tracks setup, looks like will be a winter to remember. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Individual members to tag along with @John1122 post 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 20 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Individual members to tag along with @John1122 post The number of big hitters is growing. I believe it was around 5 at 12z. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 00z Euro with a big hitter on 15th-16th timeframe 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 10:1 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 MRX is still banging the drum for a pretty significant wind event tonight and into tomorrow. Heads-up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 SPC added ETn to the general thunderstorm outlook for tomorrow. I’m convinced it’s gonna snow. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Morning disco from Memphis….This weekend will be our first real taste of winter. A secondarycold front (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=front) will push through Saturday morning with 850 tempsplunging to -8 C (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=C) by Sunday morning. Highs will be cold each daywith readings in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s. Thispolar air will remain in place and set the stage for a potentiallysignificant winter storm Monday into Tuesday. Models have somediscrepancies wrt to QPF (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=QPF) and temperatures at nearly 8 days out,but all ensemble (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ensemble) and deterministic guidance points to at leastsome potentially impactful accumulations of snow, sleet, and/orice. Stay tuned.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Not a terrible run by the 12z GFS.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 We may be dealing with an anafront? Is that the right term? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Yes, that will do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: We may be dealing with an anafront? Is that the right term? This is for the Friday system correct? NWS OHX is saying maybe up to 1” with snow showers Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Matthew70 said: This is for the Friday system correct? NWS OHX is saying maybe up to 1” with snow showers Friday night. No, the Jan 16 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: This is for the Friday system correct? NWS OHX is saying maybe up to 1” with snow showers Friday night. I just don't see it with the Friday system. I could easily be wrong. OHX would be much more familiar with your area. Maybe the Plateau and higher elevations of E TN. Could be a dusting, but who knows. These systems are powerhouses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: I just don't see it with the Friday system. I could easily be wrong. OHX would be much more familiar with your area. Maybe the Plateau and higher elevations of E TN. Could be a dusting, but who knows. These systems are powerhouses. I’m sure they meant Plateau. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This reminds me of the Christmas storm from a few years ago(Jan 16h). If we can catch a wave (without a warm nose), we could be in business. We will see. Still in the game, so that is good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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