Silas Lang Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 55 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: And just like that it is different on the GFS Don't worry, it will continue to be different each run. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Anything outside D3, expect a 600 miles track window. The models are good at being within a day or two of a storm now, which is amazing, but they aren't good at track. I do find it impressive, as an aside, that they are trying to turn somewhere in Missouri or the Ohio River area, into the Sierra Nevada with 40 and 50 inch snow amounts over a week to 10 days. I agree. I'm not so concerned about tracks and placements right now since the colors signal the significance..at least for now. I think for many of us the next few weeks, we have big daddy potential(s) within reasonable snow-chasing limits (which for me in western mid TN is 3+" within <3 hours of drive time), if not our own locales. 2023 was a rough year for a lot of reasons. No measurable snow for the calendar year (outside the 1" of total storm ice late January) added insult to injury. Already I feel like this thread is a good omen to this year being better than last. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z GEM shows a 1070 (!) mb high pressure north of MT at the end of the run, with temps near -60F. Just incredible to see this on a map... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z GEFS looks alot better thru the ext (run not complete quite yet), especially for the central and west TN folks. Instead of one storm skewing the mean and the rest kinda of blah, almost each member has some for of storm/s. One member even pushes 2"-4" right to the gulf/FL panhandle area. When ensembles start getting into the 4"-5" means (west/central TN), usually something is coming 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: There are those creamsicle colors I like again. The end of the 6z GFS was tasty. Creamsicle is back on the 12z GEFS lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Euro was pretty close to a storm on the 12th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Euro was pretty close to a storm on the 12th. Jumped the storm SE again, as you guys have said over the past couple days or so, seems to be something this winter to that. With those lofty numbers shown just across the MS river last few days of runs, it will be interesting to see if west TN starts getting into the game for anything within 150 hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: 12z GEM shows a 1070 (!) mb high pressure north of MT at the end of the run, with temps near -60F. Just incredible to see this on a map... Is that a NA record? 1074? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I watch the EPS control on this as it is essentially a continuation of the operational run....kind of like seeing the full run of the operational GFS. I thought it was holding back the cold air a bit too much. But, then it sent it all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Is that a NA record? 1074? Too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Looks like the records for NA are 1078-9mb set in late Jan early Feb 1989. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 And we are talking single digits for highs. At 270, nobody is above 20F in the forum area. The highs in northern MS might reach 21. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks like the records for NA are 1078-9mb set in late Jan early Feb 1989. Thanks for checking. It(that run....no idea what reality will bring) is going to push for the record for the Lower 48. No idea if this materializes, but the air mass shown will have few rivals if it verifies. I need to check the control. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Hopefully we get snow on ground before that kinda cold. Otherwise just dry & cold. I’ll take a hard pass. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Oh, there is snow. And there is cold.... Here are just a few of my favorites from the Euro control run(extension of the operational). This is where it would have gone after 240. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Hopefully we get snow on ground before that kinda cold. Otherwise just dry & cold. I’ll take a hard pass. Snows a couple times a week in the Arctic Circle. When it gets below 25 degrees here it’s too dry with the GOM 450 miles away. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The Euro control has 4-7" over Nashville metro. Here is the 12z GEFS ensemble. IF we get snow with an air mass that is already that cold without snow in E TN and N GA....that could set records if snow fell here. I would say my misgivings would be that this air mass could stall. Where it stalls, there is likely to be an over-running event. Does it stall on the Plateau again? E TN folks would croak. Does it go to the Atlantic? Likely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Is that a NA record? 1074? NA record is 1079mb in Dawson, Yukon 2/2/1989. Lower 48 record is 1064mb at Miles City MT 12/24/1983. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I would think with an active STJ this could get wild somewhere in the upper south if this air mass is real. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, beavis1729 said: NA record is 1079mb in Dawson, Yukon 2/2/1989. Lower 48 record is 1064mb at Miles City MT 12/24/1983. Crazy to see that on modeling. Likely modeling is too extreme and will modify as we get closer, but folks probably need to take a minute and just admire the extreme on the CMC operational and also Euro control(1050s). This reminds me a lot of the west TN ice storm a few years ago...maybe displaced eastward. This is the kind of airmass that brings snow on snow - IF real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The pattern which is showing up is one where a major winter storm will often show up....we will see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Euro was pretty close to a storm on the 12th. The progression of the 12z Euro makes more sense than other modeling, IMO. First system is passing this weekend, second system (much stronger) early next week winds up and cuts into the lakes. This should move the boundary further east while the next system dives into the southern plains and takes a track a bit further to the south and east. Because of this, I think the system later next week (day 6) has a snow/ice axis somewhere that will put the western to middle Tennessee area and/or Arkansas/northern MS in play. I think East TN has to wait to see if there is a system following the much bigger push of very cold air that will try and make its move east following the late week system. Hope modeling can start to converge around the 12z Euro (outlier) and our bothers/sisters west of us will have a system to track. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I would think with an active STJ this could get wild somewhere in the upper south if this air mass is real.I just told a friend who’s been begging me for snow….”you better watch what you wish for”. He said yeah whatever. I said “buddy, I’m not kidding either”. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Banter, but.................another pipe busting cold snap with no snow would kill my soul. Just want to put that out there. I'm sure I'm not alone. lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, PowellVolz said: I just told a friend who’s been begging me for snow….”you better watch what you wish for”. He said yeah whatever. I said “buddy, I’m not kidding either”. . Yeah, and it is highly unlikely the boundary is correct at this point. Everyone north of a line from New Orleans to Atlanta to the Research Triangle is in the game. It is HIGHLY likely that modeling under-doing the extent of the lower level cold. And we are still seeing some pretty wild swings, even on ensembles. I think a 95-96 type of storm seems likely. Where that axis would be, IDK. The almost certain warm-up between Jan 20-30....folks might welcome it with open arms!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Banter, but.................another pipe busting cold snap with no snow would kill my soul. Just want to put that out there. I'm sure I'm not alone. lol Yep, no snow in E TN would bring rebellion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yeah, and it is highly unlikely the boundary is correct at this point. Everyone north of a line from New Orleans to Atlanta to the Research Triangle is in the game. It is HIGHLY likely that modeling under-doing the extent of the lower level cold. And we are still seeing some pretty wild swings, even on ensembles. I think a 95-96 type of storm seems likely. Where that axis would be, IDK. The almost certain warm-up between Jan 20-30....folks might welcome it with open arms!!!95-96 was almost epic for Knoxville. We had one big snow and a bunch of snow-rain-snow events. 20 miles NE of Knoxville looked like Mt Leconte for a month or so. That was so close to setting records in Knoxville. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yep, no snow in E TN would bring rebellion.Ironically it would save all our shrubs/landscaping if it would snow when it’s that cold. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The Euro ext brings some good context to the end of the EPS. The EPS erases all HL blocking in a whiff at about 360. The Weeklies do the same, but.....they roll the ridge through and pop a ridge out West. And off we go again. Fun times - truly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, PowellVolz said: Ironically it would save all our shrubs/landscaping if it would snow when it’s that cold. . Yeah, snow is a great insulator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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