PowellVolz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 PowellVol…..I don’t write much on here due to me being a weather dufus……but prayers for your wife and family…..my wife had a double 2 years ago….she is doing great now…..Thank you!!!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Thanks for the update. I've been worried about her. Hopefully that took care of everything and it's your family's last worry with the cancer. Thank you. Everything has went perfect, no surprises after they got in there. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: It's the south, so we do the no snow drill well, but the worst is when we have robust system after system with rain in front and winters cold behind.......... only to finally get the consistent cold needed and then go bone dry for 10 days. lol 2017-18 was terrible for that. It rained 3 inches here on Dec 23rd and Christmas Eve with highs in the low 60s. It was 40s/20s on Christmas day, then it went ice box. My warmest day for the next 16 days was 36/16. I had 10 days with highs near 20 and lows from 1 to -1. Managed two dustings of snow and one maybe half incher through that stretch. The gulf coast got multiple winter storms while we were dry. It finally warmed up to 43 degrees here and rained half an inch. With three or four inches of snow on the ground we'd have had 1985 temperatures. I think south Central Kentucky had managed to get several inches at some point and had some near -30 lows out of that airmass. Getting below zero here with no snow is rare. I've only seen it maybe twice and that time we did it three days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: 2017-18 was terrible for that. It rained 3 inches here on Dec 23rd and Christmas Eve with highs in the low 60s. It was 40s/20s on Christmas day, then it went ice box. My warmest day for the next 16 days was 36/16. I had 10 days with highs near 20 and lows from 1 to -1. Managed two dustings of snow and one maybe half incher through that stretch. The gulf coast got multiple winter storms while we were dry. It finally warmed up to 43 degrees here and rained half an inch. With three or four inches of snow on the ground we'd have had 1985 temperatures. I think south Central Kentucky had managed to get several inches at some point and had some near -30 lows out of that airmass. Getting below zero here with no snow is rare. I've only seen it maybe twice and that time we did it three days. You didn't have to go back in the archives very far for this, but I'm always amazed at the historical value you bring to our forum. It's always fascinating. Thank you. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 There's also a year recently where it got absolutely frigid in the Midwest and it refused to budge this way. Chicago was having subzero highs and we were in the 40s and 50s. It just wouldn't head this way. I'd never seen it get that cold there and stay warm here. Our classic cold waves hit Montana to Minnesota and come southeast as a rule. Usually if you see -30s in Minnesota, were gonna get it. That year it was a no go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: You didn't have to go back in the archives very far for this, but I'm always amazed at the historical value you bring to our forum. It's always fascinating. Thank you. The more recent I can usually remember it all. Especially the painful ones like that. The creeks near my house had ice 8 inches thick by the end of that cold snap. They didn't thaw until nearly February because we had another week or so long cold blast after those few days it warmed up and rained. We spent about 3 hours above freezing between the evening of the 13th and afternoon of the 20th. Had lows in that stretch of 8,0,1,18,0,4,6. Earlier that month we'd had 1, 0, -1, 10, 6, -1, 4. We were around -7 for the month and got about 2.5 inches of snow to show for it. However it rained on about half the days that month that the low was above freezing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I hate to use the word "caved" at the range, because I have no idea what reality is going to be. However, the 18z GFS looks very similar out to the 216hour run of the 12z EPS, GEFS, GEPS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Speaking of cutters. They are normal. Otherwise, it would rarely rain in the Plains or the Midwest. It is nature’s way of spreading around the wealth. I do think we get a bit of a standing wave which forces several storms to cut. That standing wave bottles up the cold for a short time. Not to sound like a broken record, it has been on long wave ext modeling for some time. As for Baja, ensembles stay out of there. I am about 50/50 as to whether operationals are experiencing feedback or are correct. If pressed, I would say the cold stays in the front range and comes eastward on the heels of one or two cutter....slightly modified. There is also a chance this comes eastward with little modification if the cold airmass drops into the plains and not the front range. Yeah, I hope front range. If so, going to get cold and probably snowy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, I hope front range. If so, going to get cold and probably snowy. Definitely eastward on the run so far. I am out to 252 on Tropical Tidbits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The 18z GFS is sharply colder. Is it right? No idea. It simply accentuated the Greenland block instead of the Alaskan block. For me, this is just a variation of the same idea. It will probably be one of several as new data tweaks model output each day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I am thinking the warm up is not the warm up that we are accustomed to. If there is really much of a warm up. I also remember strong -NAO being a trump card in the past. Maybe my mind is remembering incorrectly. Also is there still a PV split or partial? That could definitely play in our favor or against us. Maybe this time it plays in our favor. Positive side is the cold is in Canada & very nearby now. Marginal temps are being pushed south. We are going to get moisture even if it’s rain or frozen. That’s a change from the dry pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS looks like the Southern TN,North Alabama ice storm in 1996 where they lost power for weeks 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Day 8-14 analogs: 19680109 19800127 19690110 19681230 20040104 19700109 19590104 19590117 19630130 19690115 Any time I see an analog triple weighted, I get curious. I am NOT predicting this here, but merely showing you what I found. And there it is....a month where the NAO trumped a bad Pacific. So then I looked in my weather links folder and found this: https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/Snow 1969.pdf And then I found this old post by Foothills: And this: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/calendar And this: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/100-hour-snowstorm-february-1969 And this: https://www.webberweather.com/1960s-winter-storms-nc.html 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 And then look at this 30 day map from the Euro ext, and look at the Feb 69' map from above. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 February 15-17th 1969 was the big one here. 10+ across the TN/Ky border areas. 8-10 along the TN/Va border areas. Knoxville had 7 inches. Nooga only managed 1 inch. It was a wet/paste job. Another on Feb 23rd was 5 inches here, 5 in Tazewell. Also west paste. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I think we'd term that "a good run" of the GFS. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: I think we'd term that "a good run" of the GFS. What is the ole saying? Everything always snaps back the other way like a rubber band to equal it all out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I did see an interesting quote from a top meteorologist out of the NE. He said “that the low placements 3 days out are usually on average 150 miles off of where they will usually end up”. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 That 00z d9/d10 storm isn't far off the 1969 storm mentioned by the look of it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Probably should be in banter, but noticed a large jump in the 00z GEFS overall run mean..so piqued my interest. And there it was, Member 8 aka The TN Mauler. One member jumped the entire mean 2+ inches (pegs out COD's accum chart) 6 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 There are those creamsicle colors I like again. The end of the 6z GFS was tasty. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: There are those creamsicle colors I like again. The end of the 6z GFS was tasty. Finally. I am not focused on one particular storm at this point, but the past few runs keep showing some big winter storms. It feels like it has been years since I have even seen model fantasy stuff look this active. Definitely a good sign. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 27 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Finally. I am not focused on one particular storm at this point, but the past few runs keep showing some big winter storms. It feels like it has been years since I have even seen model fantasy stuff look this active. Definitely a good sign. 0z Euro control had a couple of storms as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 hours ago, Silas Lang said: Finally. I am not focused on one particular storm at this point, but the past few runs keep showing some big winter storms. It feels like it has been years since I have even seen model fantasy stuff look this active. Definitely a good sign. And just like that it is different on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 20 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: And just like that it is different on the GFS Still great trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Still great trends. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Fighting the SER on the CMC and GFS at 12z. The MJO is FUNKY this morning. It is highly likely going to loop back to the colder phases before progressing quickly through the warmer phases. We are still about nine days out from this......ensembles are the way to go. The operationals are simply one of about 25-50 individual members at this range. Like I said, wild ride. Models will change some(or a lot) as new data is added. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Kind of an old school rule of thumb....if you want heavy snow, you want to be right on the rain/snow boundary. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 ...And if we can score while the MJO is crappy, that is a bonus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 47 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: And just like that it is different on the GFS Anything outside D3, expect a 600 miles track window. The models are good at being within a day or two of a storm now, which is amazing, but they aren't good at track. I do find it impressive, as an aside, that they are trying to turn somewhere in Missouri or the Ohio River area, into the Sierra Nevada with 40 and 50 inch snow amounts over a week to 10 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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