Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And on the CMC, there is snow on the 10th, 13th, and 15th. The GFS has it on the 10th and 20th. So, this isn't exactly a snowless timeframe without at least some minor chances - dusting or little more. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This is a 5day mean. The other thing...when I see this on an ensemble(GEFS looks very similar....that run isn' finished yet), this has massive overrunning potential. With an active sub tropical jet, this looks like a set-up for a multi day even IF the cold isn't too strong. If it is too strong, then we get snow in New Orleans. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The 12z Canadian OP at long range. Only because I like extremes(GFS is further west but eventually gets most of it well into the Atlantic....just later). Now, tell me what that looks like(recent events)? For the record, that is a -56F departure from norm during what is traditionally the coldest week of the year for a lot of NA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12z GEFS 5 day map centered on Jan 15-20. It isn't too dissimilar to the the GEPS. If the STJ remains active, that is a really good look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And I should add that 500 maps from run to run on the GEFS are absolute bedlam. LOL. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z Canadian OP at long range. Only because I like extremes(GFS is further west but eventually gets most of it well into the Atlantic....just later). Now, tell me what that looks like(recent events)? For the record, that is a -56F departure from norm during what is traditionally the coldest week of the year for a lot of NA. Honestly extreme is nice if don’t won’t any snow. I prefer the cold enough for snow. Plus I prefer to not have to replace my landscaping again this spring!!!!! lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Whew. The 12z EPS(especially the control) is crazy cold. The Euro operational was on the verge of releasing the hounds. The control pretty much did it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Cutters? I think that is a response to a temporary southeast ridge and/or standing wave. We haven't had many cutters at all this season as evidenced by the rainfall deficits in middle and western forum areas. The main storm track is the low road at the moment...and that will likely change for the medium range. There are places in the West and Plains with no snow on the ground at all. That said, the MJO influence on future weather is real. Probably the better question IMO is why things are cutting in the medium range? It is the influence of the MJO in my opinion The timeframe from Jan11-14 has almost universally supposed to have been warm. Really, Jan11-25 was supposed to be warm until modeling slipped a cold shot in round Jan15-18ish. MJO 4-6 will by default put the trough in the West unless the NAO can counter it which it might well do. Cosgrove has an interesting article this morning on storms which cut. Basically, with so much projected cold air in place in Canada(remember, our source regions are changing to extremely cold)....that cutter could pull down the mother load which personally I don't want! LOL. Honestly, middle and western areas of our forum need some rain, so cutters are good with me. The main worry w/ the MJO is a stall in phase 6 later this month....if that happens, winter is up for many. But that is still a ways out there, and I think it unlikely. The good thing about cutters is they are going to put down lots of snow to our northwest in the Plains. Of note, TRI is below normal for temps so far for the month of January. That is no surprise. As long as the MJO doesn't stall in 6(and it could), it will likely rotate into colder phases during the last week of January. The cold that we have now is a result of an MJO rotation though colder phases. The difference next time is that the source regions for the cold likely won't be Pacific maritime air. The signal for winter has generally been the second half of winter. We just need the MJO to rotate quickly through warm phases and then out.... Until then, there is cold on the map. And as a reminder, modeling is going to be all over the place. Of note, the MJO doesn't have to be warm during 4-5-6....that is not a set-in-stone rule. Something to watch. The cutters the mods are showing for the next 3 systems. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 22 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: The cutters the mods are showing for the next 3 systems. . I understand that. I was re-asking your question and then answering it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GEFS 5 day map centered on Jan 15-20. It isn't too dissimilar to the the GEPS. If the STJ remains active, that is a really good look. yeah, now thats a gitrdone look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: And again, the Jan 11-14 time frame has been lit as a warm week. And again, really the Jan 11-25 timeframe has always been pretty warm looking....having a cold shot in the middle of MJO warm phases is pretty much a bonus. The MJO "should" be prime by the end of January again. That's true although i'm always leary when an arctic airmass dives to Baja, that's why the earlier Post. Sometimes Troughs can get stuck back there for quite some time as we know. Hopefully, and by looking at other guidance, the gfs is wrong in that depiction for that timeframe. An amazing sight on there is that 989 bomb in the Rockies then ! What a Blizzard that would be for even that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Speaking of cutters. They are normal. Otherwise, it would rarely rain in the Plains or the Midwest. It is nature’s way of spreading around the wealth. I do think we get a bit of a standing wave which forces several storms to cut. That standing wave bottles up the cold for a short time. Not to sound like a broken record, it has been on long wave ext modeling for some time. As for Baja, ensembles stay out of there. I am about 50/50 as to whether operationals are experiencing feedback or are correct. If pressed, I would say the cold stays in the front range and comes eastward on the heels of one or two cutter....slightly modified. There is also a chance this comes eastward with little modification if the cold airmass drops into the plains and not the front range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: The cutters the mods are showing for the next 3 systems. . Sorry, I was in a hurry earlier. My initial response probably didn’t make sense. I was re-asking the question as in, “So what about the upcoming cutters?” And not, “Cutters? What cutters?” Cosgrove has noted that during January the winter pattern will often reload. That is probably part of it - I hope. That standing wave could stay there the rest of winter, but it “should” depart after 5-7 days. And yes, the wave is bottling up the pattern IMHO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Sorry, I was in a hurry earlier. My initial response probably didn’t make sense. I was re-asking the question as in, “So what about the upcoming cutters?” And not, “Cutters? What cutters?” Cosgrove has noted that during January the winter pattern will often reload. That is probably part of it - I hope. That standing wave could stay there the rest of winter, but it “should” depart after 5-7 days. And yes, the wave is bottling up the pattern IMHO.It’s not a big deal. I’m just now beginning to catch back up. My wife had a double mastectomy on Wednesday and we came home yesterday afternoon. So for the last several days I haven’t been able to keep up. To be honest, ever since my wife’s cancer diagnosis at the end of November I haven’t really cared much about the weather. Im ready to get back to normal life now, 33 and rain. . 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: It’s not a big deal. I’m just now beginning to catch back up. My wife had a double mastectomy on Wednesday and we came home yesterday afternoon. So for the last several days I haven’t been able to keep up. To be honest, ever since my wife’s cancer diagnosis at the end of November I haven’t really cared much about the weather. Im ready to get back to normal life now, 33 and rain. . Continued prayers for you & your wife & family. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Continued prayers for you & your wife & family.Thank you. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Maybe false hope but I feel the MJO forecast are wrong or it will be overridden by other factors. -NAO. PV split. Only time will tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: It’s not a big deal. I’m just now beginning to catch back up. My wife had a double mastectomy on Wednesday and we came home yesterday afternoon. So for the last several days I haven’t been able to keep up. To be honest, ever since my wife’s cancer diagnosis at the end of November I haven’t really cared much about the weather. Im ready to get back to normal life now, 33 and rain. . I am really sorry to hear about that man. I know it's rough. Had a similar situation last year right after our first son was born. Words can't express enough. I hope your wife has a speedy recovery. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: It’s not a big deal. I’m just now beginning to catch back up. My wife had a double mastectomy on Wednesday and we came home yesterday afternoon. So for the last several days I haven’t been able to keep up. To be honest, ever since my wife’s cancer diagnosis at the end of November I haven’t really cared much about the weather. Im ready to get back to normal life now, 33 and rain. . Tell your wife to hang in there! Prayers for a speedy recovery for her. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Whew. The 12z EPS(especially the control) is crazy cold. The Euro operational was on the verge of releasing the hounds. The control pretty much did it. Honestly, that's the last thing I want to hear. My insurance book of business still hasn't recovered from the pipes that were bursting all over northeast TN last Christmas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 17 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: It’s not a big deal. I’m just now beginning to catch back up. My wife had a double mastectomy on Wednesday and we came home yesterday afternoon. So for the last several days I haven’t been able to keep up. To be honest, ever since my wife’s cancer diagnosis at the end of November I haven’t really cared much about the weather. Im ready to get back to normal life now, 33 and rain. . Man, thank you for the update. You all are definitely in my prayers. Glad to have you here! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Honestly, that's the last thing I want to hear. My insurance book of business still hasn't recovered from the pipes that were bursting all over northeast TN last Christmas. Yeah, there is too much of a good thing...and we are flirting with that in the LR. It is pretty rare to see ensembles this cold. It wouldn't surprise me to see the SE edge pulled back some....but really the 12z suite cooled off a bunch from an ensemble perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, there is too much of a good thing...and we are flirting with that in the LR. It is pretty rare to see ensembles this cold. It wouldn't surprise me to see the SE edge pulled back some....but really the 12z suite cooled off a bunch from an ensemble perspective. One of the things that has struck me with modeling recently is not necessarily the degree of cold but rather the duration, like a week or more of what most in the forum area would consider cold is unusual. Most cases it is a couple days then it breaks and warms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: One of the things that has struck me with modeling recently is not necessarily the degree of cold but rather the duration, like a week or more of what most in the forum area would consider cold is unusual. Most cases it is a couple days then it breaks and warms Amazingly, we had one of the longest streaks of below freezing(maybe broke the streak at TRI) during the late 2010s. But yeah, at our latitude (even during the colder winters of the 70s and 80s, lower elevations tend to come up for air) a good window here might be 5-7 days. A really good window might be 7-10 days. An exceptional window would be 10-14 days. To me, this looks like a two-for. We get a cold shot Jan 13-20. Then, we warm-up. Then, in February we do it all again. The actual window for snow might be something like the 15th-20th. But that is speculation on my part. Some of those cold shots could be suppression city. We need cold, but we don't need it to be cold in Tampa. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Amazingly, we had one of the longest streaks of below freezing(maybe broke the streak at TRI) during the late 2010s. But yeah, at our latitude (even during the colder winters of the 70s and 80s, lower elevations tend to come up for air) a good window here might be 5-7 days. A really good window might be 7-10 days. An exceptional window would be 10-14 days. To me, this looks like a two-for. We get a cold shot Jan 13-20. Then, we warm-up. Then, in February we do it all again. The actual window for snow might be something like the 15th-20th. But that is speculation on my part. Some of those cold shots could be suppression city. We need cold, but we don't need it to be cold in Tampa. It's the south, so we do the no snow drill well, but the worst is when we have robust system after system with rain in front and winters cold behind.......... only to finally get the consistent cold needed and then go bone dry for 10 days. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottorec Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 38 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: It’s not a big deal. I’m just now beginning to catch back up. My wife had a double mastectomy on Wednesday and we came home yesterday afternoon. So for the last several days I haven’t been able to keep up. To be honest, ever since my wife’s cancer diagnosis at the end of November I haven’t really cared much about the weather. Im ready to get back to normal life now, 33 and rain. . PowellVol…..I don’t write much on here due to me being a weather dufus……but prayers for your wife and family…..my wife had a double 2 years ago….she is doing great now….. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 47 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: It’s not a big deal. I’m just now beginning to catch back up. My wife had a double mastectomy on Wednesday and we came home yesterday afternoon. So for the last several days I haven’t been able to keep up. To be honest, ever since my wife’s cancer diagnosis at the end of November I haven’t really cared much about the weather. Im ready to get back to normal life now, 33 and rain. . Thanks for the update. I've been worried about her. Hopefully that took care of everything and it's your family's last worry with the cancer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I am really sorry to hear about that man. I know it's rough. Had a similar situation last year right after our first son was born. Words can't express enough. I hope your wife has a speedy recovery. Thank you buddy . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Tell your wife to hang in there! Prayers for a speedy recovery for her.Thank you. She’s so much stronger than me. Last couple of years has been rough. She had the brain tumor in 2021. It took about a year to be normal again and now this but God is good and our faith is strong. Just another bump in the road. . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Man, thank you for the update. You all are definitely in my prayers. Glad to have you here!Thank you. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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