Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Very rarely do we see all-time record lows show up on modeling....very rarely. But that run is flirting with all-time record lows, and probably sets them in some areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I mean, I think we would all be willing to be patient if this type of event unfolded. I knew it was going to be a banger run when I was following 500 and saw this map...... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 That run is an all-timer in many aspects. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I won’t get my hopes up. i won’t get my hopes up. I won’t get my hopes up…. 1 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I'm going to need to get my gas fireplace fixed just incase if this happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dankles Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 At the very least, it is nice to have things to track after how awful last winter was in that regard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The actual snowfall (Kuchera) for the entire event plus some bonus upslope is crazy sick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The total run is sicker...another storm is incoming as it ends. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 That was one of the most insane temp runs I've ever seen. We are talking about -30 to -50 departure from normal temps for an entire week for the whole state of TN. If it does indeed snow before, it isn't going anywhere for a long while. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I don't know that the ensemble supports the OP(and it won't at this range!), but the temps on the ensemble are just about as cold as one can get at this range. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I'm old enough to want to skip the -15 to -20 stuff! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm old enough to want to skip the -15 to -20 stuff! Amen Brother! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 41 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The total run is sicker...another storm is incoming as it ends. My memory is blurry, but which winter was it when we last had some back to back storms? 2015, 2014, 2013? Sort of reminds me of that. I was in Johnson City at the time and it seemed like there was a year when I was at ETSU where there were a few big events with some small upslope, snow shower stuff peppered in between. Probably the last "great" snow winter I experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I don’t expect those type of temps nor that much snow but history shows that extremes like this have happened here before. So anything is possible. Though if it’s going to be that cold. Then yes please snow that much to protect my new landscaping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 46 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm old enough to want to skip the -15 to -20 stuff! Same here man. Used to could handle it back in the day but not now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm old enough to want to skip the -15 to -20 stuff! And when we see temps like that....winter often ends right after that. So, a slow burn like the ensembles is what I am hoping for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 27 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: My memory is blurry, but which winter was it when we last had some back to back storms? 2015, 2014, 2013? Sort of reminds me of that. I was in Johnson City at the time and it seemed like there was a year when I was at ETSU where there were a few big events with some small upslope, snow shower stuff peppered in between. Probably the last "great" snow winter I experienced. February 2015 was from Kingsport North and West. 2014 was pretty much forum wide, at least most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I mean, I think we would all be willing to be patient if this type of event unfolded. I knew it was going to be a banger run when I was following 500 and saw this map...... . 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 MRX put out an initial "heads up" for colder weather and above normal precip. Just for posterity. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And when we see temps like that....winter often ends right after that. So, a slow burn like the ensembles is what I am hoping for. That 1978 analog that's showing up had 3 or 4 major cold waves with below zero weather. On January 9th the temperature here went from 54 early in the morning to 3 degrees by midnight. We next went 24 hours without falling below freezing on March 9th. As crazy as that is, it's still warmer than 1977. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, John1122 said: That 1978 analog that's showing up had 3 or 4 major cold waves with below zero weather. On January 9th the temperature here went from 54 early in the morning to 3 degrees by midnight. We next went 24 hours without falling below freezing on March 9th. As crazy as that is, it's still warmer than 1977. Amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: MRX put out an initial "heads up" for colder weather and above normal precip. Just for posterity. We get that much snow forum wide & those temps. Yep I will say thank you winter. Now where is spring because that would shut down most of the state for several days. Snow days would be used up quickly for the schools. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Hope we get a back to back storm with those temperatures! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: We get that much snow forum wide & those temps. Yep I will say thank you winter. Now where is spring because that would shut down most of the state for several days. Snow days would be used up quickly for the schools. That was just for posterity. I highly doubt we swing that, but we can dream, right! I will say that the pattern may try to reload yet again after that. Wherever that boundary sets up is likely gonna get hammered. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Carvers Gap said: That was just for posterity. I highly doubt we swing that, but we can dream, right! I will say that the pattern may try to reload yet again after that. Wherever that boundary sets up is likely gonna get hammered. I definitely don’t see that happening but dreaming is fun. History does produce the unthinkable sometimes. We are due in this area forum wide for history to say it’s time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The storm Friday is close to producing some frozen precip also. As long as this keeps moving forward. No more can kicking. Pretty amazing that it’s seemed like winter for the last few weeks. Cloudy & cold. Highs in the 40’s lows in 20’s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Big thing is to sit back and watch trends over the next few days. This could be great or not great. Trends often don't favor us in the Upper South, but sometimes they do. If it works out -> bonus. If not -> lots of other great things to do in life! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Very rarely do we see all-time record lows show up on modeling....very rarely. But that run is flirting with all-time record lows, and probably sets them in some areas. I saw the insane cold on the 18Z GFS. I recommend taking the GFS with a huge grain over fresh snow-cover because it has had a strong cold bias over modeled fresh snow-cover for at least several years: https://dtcenter.org/sites/default/files/events/2020/4-patel-ronak.pdf Cold is coming, no doubt. But the insane cold that far south on the 18Z GFS isn’t realistic. I believe the Euro may also have this bias (at least it did a few years ago), but I don’t think to this degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Big thing is to sit back and watch trends over the next few days. This could be great or not great. Trends often don't favor us in the Upper South, but sometimes they do. If it works out -> bonus. If not -> lots of other great things to do in life! It’s fun to actually feel like we’re tracking. This is within 10 days. Pretty incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 40 minutes ago, GaWx said: I saw the insane cold on the 18Z GFS. I recommend taking the GFS with a huge grain over fresh snow-cover because it has had a strong cold bias over modeled fresh snow-cover for at least several years: https://dtcenter.org/sites/default/files/events/2020/4-patel-ronak.pdf Cold is coming, no doubt. But the insane cold that far south on the 18Z GFS isn’t realistic. See the post right above the one you just posted.... Yeah, I think most know to take that type of run with a grain of salt, but I don't discount it(just think it is highly unlikely). I should note that isn't the only model to show that type of extreme during that past few days. So, if the GFS is wrong, it won't be alone. The CMC and Euro control have both had some crazy cold runs. The CMC had a 1074 high at 12z. It is very rare for an extreme of that nature to verify, but it is not without precedent in NE TN w/ snowfall present. So, I wouldn't say it is unrealistic. It has happened before, and likely will occur again. We have seen that type of cold here a few times in my lifetime - 85, 94, 96, and I am sure I am missing several years. That said...just last December('22) modeling portrayed -30 to -40 below zero wind chills here(over snowless ground), and nailed every bit of it. In 1985, it hit -24F where I lived. Wind chills were off the cart. I was under my house trying to thaw out pipes. I probably sat it a K-Mart parking lot helping my dad change an alternator around that time as well. It was brutal. And I should add, that it isn't just modeling currently showing those extremes. The CPC has used 1994, 1996, and 1985 in their analog packages during the past few days. Maybe those are GFS generated. IDK. I will always say that to be right in the weather, always bet against the extreme - always. One will rarely be wrong. I can concur with that, and that is true now as well. We will for sure know more during the coming days. Moderation is usually the trend, and we know that. But...there is nothing on any model run that I would consider unrealistic. Highly unlikely? Absolutely, and we know that. Without precedent? No. Though, they do flirt w/ all-time record lows....they are sill within reason of the region's most extreme weather. Honestly, those wind chills are similar to what many experienced in December of '22. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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