January Medium-Long Range Discussion

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'll try to kick this off with an image from England in the 1300s:

 

I'm hoping that's Boreas blowing in some cold winds under a storm cloud in the top right corner. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Overnight Euro for next Wed Jan 3 through Mon Jan 8. 

 

6z GFS has a similar storm with more cold:

 

CMC has the storm, but is suppressed

It does have the beautiful slider John mentioned earlier later in its run.

 

EPS city chart for Crossville looks ok with a few good hits:

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

0z Euro control run from overnight.  Most of this is Jan 4th-7th....storm is trending a bit close on operationals for my book, but fun run.  I think we need to score early during January.

 

[tnweathernut]

Just came here for the @Holston_River_Rambler animated euro gif's and the @Carvers Gap control snow map.   All kidding aside (kinda), we are 5 days away from a system with potential for something other than rain.  It's the first legit chance we've had this year.  We seem to have a ticket to the game and have made it to the ball park.  The maps at 500 want to roll energy beneath us every 2-3 days.  I just hope mother nature throws our strike out prone batter a belt high fastball he can connect on with one of them.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Just came here for the @Holston_River_Rambler animated euro gif's and the @Carvers Gap control snow map.   All kidding aside (kinda), we are 5 days away from a system with potential for something other than rain.  It's the first legit chance we've had this year.  We seem to have a ticket to the game and have made it to the ball park.  The maps at 500 want to roll energy beneath us every 2-3 days.  I just hope mother nature throws our strike out prone batter a belt high fastball he can connect on with one of them.

Yep, true.  It is not a bad look.  I don't like the NW trend of late, so 12z will be important in that regard I think.  Tough to resist a good Euro clown map FWIW.  LOL.  

[TellicoWx]

Something to keep an eye on for the next potential system, especially with marginal temps...the strength and placement of any Great Lakes Low.

[bearman]

First soggy flury of the year just came by the house.

[Carvers Gap]

Decent look again on the 12z GFS.

[Carvers Gap]

FYI, I am going to keep my discussion about the light snow event for today and tomorrow in the December thread just so we can find it later....And for the storm threat next week, I would recommend posting that here.   That will also keep the two discussions separate.  

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the CMC and GFS at 12z are not going to be content with just one system inside of 200h.   

[Carvers Gap]

Happy Hour is 6 hour early!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Decent look again on the 12z GFS.

The 1/4 wave on the GFS has Tellico's Great Lakes low. I think Tellico summoned it. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The 1/4 wave on the GFS has Tellico's Great Lakes low. I think Tellico summoned it. 

LOL.  Fortunately, it is just ahead of our system.  If it gets over the top, no bueno.

The next system after it is a mixed bag but perfect track...and then it stalls over Hatteras.  That run is still going.  Even though snow maps won't be as pretty for that, we take that look ALL DAY LONG.

[Carvers Gap]

And I mean stalls that system....wow.  To clarify, I am referencing the 12z GFS...27 hours around Hatteras.  CMC has the same system but a slider.  So, two to track.

[TellicoWx]

13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The 1/4 wave on the GFS has Tellico's Great Lakes low. I think Tellico summoned it. 

Seems to always be the big fly in the ointment on these setups. 12z CMC is a great visual for seeing how much of a difference they can make...system #1 (GL Low) valley struggles at lower levels...system #2 (HP over the top) slider with better thermals.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is going to release the Arctic hounds after the NAO/SER hook ridge slides off at +300.

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS is going to release the Arctic hounds after the NAO/SER hook ridge slides off at +300.

Yep, and the Southern Jet stays active even then...would be a great potential setup.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Yep, and the Southern Jet stays active even then...would be a great potential setup.

Pretty wild pattern, and hopefully will be more interesting than last Jan/Feb was for us.  I have no idea if that actually happens, but ensembles have been honking for some time about cold around the 12th.  Lots of plates getting juggled right now with modeling trying sort out the MJO and potential HL blocking and the STJ being active.   

[Matthew70]

I just hope it’s not all a mirage, and the MJO  is the true reality.

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I just hope it’s not all a mirage, and the MJO  is the true reality.

Again, I think we are good to the 10th in terms of temps.  The roads diverge after that.  The NAO might be one of the most difficult features for modeling to predict.  Models will often miss it completely, over-estimate its intensity, or put AN heights in the wrong spot.  What happens after the 10th is very likely going to be dependent on the NAO.  I suspect that MJO forecasts are a trainwreck right now.  MJO forecasts completely missed the turn into the colder phases.  So for the MJO, I am not sure what I am seeing is reality at all.  Now, I fully expect some ugliness to show its head as we aren't going to dodge warm phases all winter.  It's the South, we aren't staying warm indefinitely during most winters.  We need the Atlantic.  But honestly, if what the GEFS and GEPS are showing at 12z is correct...we might want a warm-up for a bit.

[Carvers Gap]

 

[Carvers Gap]

If this storm for the 4th is still there tomorrow evening or even Sunday morning, probably time to post a thread.  The ICON has it.  The 18z GFS has it w/ a slight jog SE(which is where we want it).  I mean really, I might be interested enough to stay up and watch models at 0z.  It looks that good.  The Euro pushed it similar to the GFS trend at 18z...so edit, it looks cautiously decent.

[fountainguy97]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

If this storm for the 4th is still there tomorrow evening or even Sunday morning, probably time to post a thread.  The ICON has it.  The 18z GFS has it w/ a slight jog SE(which is where we want it).  I mean really, I might be interested enough to stay up and watch models at 0z.  It looks that good.  The Euro pushed it similar to the GFS trend at 18z...so edit, it looks cautiously decent.

Yeah this one has support across all model families which we haven't had yet this winter really. Perfect spot for the inevitable NW jog thats  coming  

[Carvers Gap]

LR discussion(brief)....extended ensembles are most definitely sensing the crawling MJO(in warm phases) after mid Jan.  We need a counter(block) to that where the NAO doesn't hook into an eastern ridge.  We need the trough to slide under that block and hold on.  If not, going to be very difficult to get winter to return with much meaningful time left on the clock.  That is not a winter cancel post(for after Jan 15th), but more like a special weather advisory with the potential for a watch to be issued at a later date.

[Daniel Boone]

46 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LR discussion(brief)....extended ensembles are most definitely sensing the crawling MJO(in warm phases) after mid Jan.  We need a counter(block) to that where the NAO doesn't hook into an eastern ridge.  We need the trough to slide under that block and hold on.  If not, going to be very difficult to get winter to return with much meaningful time left on the clock.  That is not a winter cancel post(for after Jan 15th), but more like a special weather advisory with the potential for a watch to be issued at a later date.

Yeah, was checking out the MA Sub earlier and they're pretty torn up regarding that. The GEFS is the terrible looking one. We can work with the other's. We definitely don't want that La nina Ridge dig that western Trough like GEFS indicating along with a - NAO. Then we have what killed us last year. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. Let's hope we score a couple times early January that way it'll be easier to take. 

[Matthew70]

I don’t get upset like I used to not having snow.  After so many years in 90’s I realized it’s just not the same climate it used to be in the 70’s.  Not at all saying it’s climate change. Which I’m not saying it’s not happening either but something changed.  I used to believe the earth & wx go in cycles. Maybe we are in a bad cycle for snow in these parts. I know this is not the place to discuss that topic.  I also remember as John said.  Warm Novembers usually don’t bode well for winter. I also feel TN seems to have more tornadoes than it once did & the plains not as many. I am hoping we don’t have another cold spring.  Cold rains in March & April are not fun for any of us. Though we might need those if we do not start getting the water table up.  Drought brings more drought.  Please no drought for this spring & summer. Come on cold & moisture. Give us a good ole snow storm. Sorry for the rambles. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z GFS gives you hope Matthew (so it can take it away later)

 

I like this very realistic (read with sarcasm)

close up snap shot from that run:

There is no way if there is a valley warm nose and a low over Tellico that I'm staying snow, lol. 

[matt9697]

48 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z GFS gives you hope Matthew (so it can take it away later)

 

I like this very realistic (read with sarcasm)

close up snap shot from that run:

There is no way if there is a valley warm nose and a low over Tellico that I'm staying snow, lol. 

Well, it is likely to be a different depiction on the next run but that does look odd; good for my area north of Nashville but like I said, will be different next run 

[Carvers Gap]

12 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, was checking out the MA Sub earlier and they're pretty torn up regarding that. The GEFS is the terrible looking one. We can work with the other's. We definitely don't want that La nina Ridge dig that western Trough like GEFS indicating along with a - NAO. Then we have what killed us last year. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. Let's hope we score a couple times early January that way it'll be easier to take. 

We have light snow falling as I type this.  Though it hasn't accumulated, we have had snow falling off-and-on for almost 24 hours....

I think we are seeing models mishandle the MJO badly....they have been truly terrible of late in handling it.  They completely whiffed on cold phases, and I do wonder about the validity of the potential 45 day tour through the warm phases.  That may verify, but the warm water over phase 8 should produce rain near the dateline.  I also think ensembles are all over the place in the placement of the NAO, and that has huge impacts right along the east coast.  Also, it appears to me that modeling is breaking down the Nino far too quickly.  The cold stretching from Calgary to Nashville is nearly a textbook Nina signal - that I don't buy(the cold I do...just that it doesn't extend to the coast).  If that is the configuration, that cold should go to Savannah, Georgia, and not stop at the Apps.  But the big message is the Pacific is likely to be less favorable, and we need the NAO.  I don't see overwhelming SER signatures, but I do see an east coast ridge near the coast.  To me those are different features (the EC ridge and the SER).

As for November, that rule hasn't worked IMBY of late...it for sure normally has some skill, but during the past few Nina winters....it rarely worked.  The colder Novembers still had warm DJF averages if I remember correctly for my back yard.  It did work for middle and west TN.  I do think that when North America cools down during fall, it raises chances of a better winter.  The bigger issue was drought during fall - that is a big "tell" in regards to where cold likes to go - it doesn't like heading to dry areas.

But you all in west and middle areas, you can't say that you weren't warned over the summer.  Nino winter storm tracks favor eastern areas.  Next winter, you all "should" be back on deck.  Not counting this winter, two of your last three winters have featured significant snow and ice events for middle and west TN - banner winters.  And who knows, this winter could still break your way.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z GFS gives you hope Matthew (so it can take it away later)

 

I like this very realistic (read with sarcasm)

close up snap shot from that run:

There is no way if there is a valley warm nose and a low over Tellico that I'm staying snow, lol. 

Complex for sure at this range.  The complexity itself likely means it changes many times between now and the event as you all noted.

I'll take a stab at it.  Weak low pressure - almost a lee side Plateau low.  Probably is a handoff to the Piedmont/Coast.  Downsloping city right there.  Air gets compressed, heats up, and we get warm air on the west side of the Apps...and less precip.  Add in some warm nose, and you get that look. On the west side of the eastern valley...cold air gets pushed by counter clockwise flow up against the Plateau.  The cold has nowhere to go.  Th precip rises through the cold air, further cooling the air column, and you get rates induced snow.  I have seen nearly that exact setup during ice storms.  I have had 30 degrees at TRI, and 40 in JC/Unicoi.