Seasonal Forecasts Improving?

[bgmsnowman]

So It's been several years since I stopped following this blog back in the mid 2010s.  Just now I decided to check back in, and I see that there is still lots of spirited discussion on seasonal forecasting, particularly with respect to this winter.  It's just like it was back in 2010-2015 when I was contributing.  I really have to give some of the people on here a lot of credit for all of the effort that they put it in making these forecasts, and there are many on here who doubtlessly know much more than I do about some of the patterns and teleconnections that are discussed.  But for some of the folks on here who are involved, I wonder what your take is on how much improvement there has been during the past 10 years or so.  Earlier this fall I started looking at the tweets of an infamous forecaster known to all on this blog as "JB".  I worked with  him back in the 80s, and followed his seasonal forecasts back in the 2000's and 2010s'.  It's amazing to me he never changes.  Back  in November when I saw that he started forecasting cold and snowy for "the holidays", and cold weather for bowl games that would favor northern teams,  I thought to myself, "well that's the kiss of death, in a few weeks he'll push it back to New Years, then mid-January, then February.  Finally, we will get a 1 to 3 week spell of cold and snow in late January or early February, then he'll double down and predict even more for mid February through March, but that will be followed by another warm spell.  Then he'll talk about late March / April snow potential for "the mountains", then he'll finally give up at the end of April and start hyping hurricanes".  I'm thinking that my prediction looks pretty good so far.  Anyway, I know that there are several forecasters on this blog who do not have this bias, and who make good faith efforts to try to get it right.  So again, my question; do you think there is any hope for these predictions to improve?  Have they been improving?  Is there anyone out there who consistently nails these forecasts on a year-to-year basis.  I do think that 10 day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF have gotten somewhat better over the past 10-15 years, but I am talking about seasonal forecasts.  I fully admit that I have no skill when it comes to forecasting beyond 2 weeks.  Maybe there is still time for JB to be right this year??