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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m holding. Not saying I’m not getting a little nervous. But I have a sneaky suspicion either things line up for a typical Nino run at some point and we hit my forecast or it doesn’t and we don’t get even close. 

i know we keep talking about this but when a model takes snow away from us its all of it. Its never 12-6 or 8-4. its 12-0 8-0....

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21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Because it looked different emoji6.png

But didn’t matter really minus some mood flakes. What else is there to do but watch

DT says the solution is bullskank and forecasts that it will trend south and east more and more as it gets closer due to models seeing the severe blocking better

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

i know we keep talking about this but when a model takes snow away from us its all of it. It’s never 12-6 or 8-4. it’s 12-0 8-0....

Sometimes we get a 1-2” pity event. But no we don’t often go from 12 to 5” and that’s because we don’t often get moderateevents  anymore.  It’s all or nothing so unless we get fringed like some in that early Jan 22 storm it’s big or go home. 

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I still don’t think the 13th will cut like the GFS.

Regardless, todays 18z gfs reminded me of Feb 2-3 960bfc4e2e673f2b04bc3b90e167040993.gif
93ec5676e939633d87d591a9bdb48ee9.jpg
085b72e5ed3f74f938a8caf7301efaa0.jpg


.
That stripe of 18" over my house in DE looks pretty tasty. I'd take

Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk

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That stripe of 18" over my house in DE looks pretty tasty. I'd take

Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk


Yea that storm was a rounded wave overrunning event as well. It was bitterly cold and snowed In the low 20s just like the 18z gfs. I’m sure the GFS will be different in 6 hours but we can dream


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26 minutes ago, Ji said:

DT says the solution is bullskank and forecasts that it will trend south and east more and more as it gets closer due to models seeing the severe blocking better

As long as it amplifies and pulls the trough east in its wake we win either way. It sets up the next wave. Stj will keep em coming. 

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10 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

never look a snow map straight in the eyes. take a quick glance get a sense of it and move on

This is actually fantastic advice--like seriously. Because if you do, you start dreaming and envisioning, suddenly it's like it's like it's happening. Hence, when the models focus in, if it doesn't happen, it feels like it was "taken away"...when ya never really had it, lol

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m holding. Not saying I’m not getting a little nervous. But I have a sneaky suspicion either things line up for a typical Nino run at some point and we hit my forecast or it doesn’t and we don’t get even close. 

I concur. Hang in and hold for the big win....dont cash out. 

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