Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[TJ3]

11 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

Question: where are the geese?

Well today they were all in Rehoboth Beach. I was out this morning before the rain and I saw no less than 10 large flocks in one hour. It was incredible. Seemed to be heading South but who knows. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

26 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

Question: where are the geese?

Wawa

[Prestige Worldwide]

15 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

Well today they were all in Rehoboth Beach. I was out this morning before the rain and I saw no less than 10 large flocks in one hour. It was incredible. Seemed to be heading South but who knows. 

Yes they were- they’ve been crazy around here the last 3 days 

[AlexD1990]

never look a snow map straight in the eyes. take a quick glance get a sense of it and move on

Thanks but I really don't need the advice from you, respectfully. Been on these boards since 2003. I know how snow maps work, and I know what our climo and expectations are down here. Thank you.
(Not to even mention that this was a historical snow map from a storm that happened in 1996)
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[Interstate]

45 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

Question: where are the geese?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Voice of Reason…..Avocados 

But those Squishable avocadoes are so...damned cute!!  (Yes, I have one!)

[IUsedToHateCold]

50 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

Question: where are the geese?

 

[pazzo83]

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

I still don’t think the 13th will cut like the GFS.

Regardless, todays 18z gfs reminded me of Feb 2-3 96




.

which event was this again?

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

N trend

We definitely  need this one!!! Wish it wasnt 10 days out but im glad we have abother one to track ! 

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Just lock it in already 

Looks great!! Long way to go still but the 10 days will go fast

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The -NAO is rushing out in a hurry. That's going to give it 10 days! The December one was 10 days too. If you look back over the last several Winters they have not had much staying power. Since we have an ongoing Stratosphere warming through mid-month, it's especially not happening because these usually correlate with 500mb ridging +time. The GEFS wants to quickly turn the NAO positive post 1-20. I'm honestly willing to take a chance, I feel the Pacific could be more favorable if we have +nao conditions develop. Before then, Pacific ridge is still kind of south to favor a snowstorm, then the NAO lifts out, although when it's rapidly rising to Neutral (Jan 16-17) we are more likely to see snow. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, J.Mike said:

Question: where are the geese?

Pissing in the Delaware River, The Delaware Bay, The Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic keeping them warming up!  Then they will continue flying south towards suppression. 

However, they know this is the season of the One and Done!

I know someone back there was saying nickel and dime our way to 2-4" but looking at how things are right now think we have a better shot of the 20" snowstorm mid-west to the East Coast in time. 

[Heisy]

which event was this again?

February 2-3 1996


.

[adelphi_sky]

23 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Looks great!! Long way to go still but the 10 days will go fast

Don't go chasin' blizzards stick to the cold rain and sleet you're used to.

[BristowWx]

My son went snowboarding in WV Canaan yesterday…asked me why we live here…said it was no elevation and stupid…I just said I don’t know son…I don’t know

[anotherman]

My son went snowboarding in WV Canaan yesterday…asked me why we live here…said it was no elevation and stupid…I just said I don’t know son…I don’t know

Sounds like you raised him right.

[stormtracker]

GFS won't play ball this run...but we got like a trillion hours to go

[Ji]

Headscratching

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[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Headscratching

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I don’t know man

[Ji]

Gfs basically seasonable cold for us

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[Jebman]

2 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

 

Now, I am ravenous!

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Headscratching

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What in the polar opposite El Nino is going on here?

[Heisy]

If tonight’s runs are correct we wait until 18-19th and beyond for any threats for when the lower heights finally push far enough E. Till then the WAR ridge is too strong because of the -PNA. Annoying, but maybe we get lucky with an Archambault event once block has retrograded. If we go cutter, cutter, cutter then cold and dry before warming up then I’ll just delete my wxbell subscription and cliff dive


.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

If tonight’s runs are correct we wait until 18-19th and beyond for any threats for when the lower heights finally push far enough E. Till then the WAR ridge is too strong because of the -PNA. Annoying, but maybe we get lucky with an Archambault event once block has retrograded. If we go cutter, cutter, cutter then cold and dry before warming up then I’ll just delete my wxbell subscription and cliff dive


.

Look at the ensembles this far out not the op runs

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Look at the ensembles this far out not the op runs

 

Those are going to wrong way as well tho. 

[Heisy]

Look at the ensembles this far out not the op runs
 

I am. If you follow the EPS heights, precip maps, and snow mean tonight it’s generally showing cutter on the 10th, cutter on the 13th, cutter 16-17th, then it dries out at the end of the run. Yea the heights look good but sometimes you have to see through the mean and look at what’s really going on. Where’s the snow on the eps? It’s not there because it’s showing 3 cutters and then cold and dry. I’m not saying it’s right, just showing what I’m seeing… and we have plenty of time for it to change

10th cutter


13th cutter

16th cutter



Beyond that it’s cold but the precip/snow mean are paltry. Southern stream dries out and the brief PNA ridge gets pushed into central Conus for what looks like an end of pattern warm up.

I know I’ll get bashed for this post, but whatever.

Just my opinion on why the snow mean was so low tonight.

Hopefully over next few days we see improved threats pop up in the 15th-22nd time frame.



.

[brooklynwx99]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Those are going to wrong way as well tho. 

no, they absolutely are not

[brooklynwx99]

using the 10th as a cutter to say that the pattern isn't great is disingenuous. that's been a cutter for like two weeks. the 13th does not look good at this latitude and hasn't for a while. the risk for anything larger is from the 15th to the 23rd or so, and the pattern still looks good for something

using ensemble snow means is not the best way to go about analyzing if a pattern is favorable or not

[CAPE]

Looks like we had the deb tag team from Philly up in here lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, they absolutely are not

I'm talking farther out there where the NAO flips positive. More long range vs mid range in fantasy land. Maybe the flip is where we get our Archambault.