brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, CAPE said: How about both? Probably going to see a light/moderate event (or 2) with modest waves tracking to our south before any KU potential the way the pattern looks to play out. One of these waves could be always weak/ suppressed I suppose. AND we should have a reload as the Aleutian Low gets going in February 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So let me get this straight...despite alllll the snow drought we've had the past 7-8 years, you're still gonna be picky if we get a big storm? Maaan get outta here with that, lol Moderate events to me are 8-12". Anything over a foot is a big storm to me. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Hopefully this includes us 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: You have folks here who were ungrateful for the Jan 2016 blizzard just because it was a one and done winter. I don't get that...but to each their own! it was a great storm, but that was an awful, under-performing winter. I was wearing shorts for most of december 2015. february 2016 was filled with heartbreaking near misses. that winter should have delivered much more snow than it did. the snow from the blizzard completely melted in a week and we had bare grass the rest of the winter. contrast that with the winter of 13/14 -- no great storms, but an amazing winter. the last good winter we had was probably 14/15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hopefully this includes us Keep seeing some say the south may see a snow event before we do. And looking at those maps wouldn't that be more suppressive? (For that week, at least) Man if NC gets a snow event before we do...*screams into pillow* Still have snow ptsd from Dec 2018 (though that was a little bad luck, lol) If it happens it would kinda make sense...as someone posted earlier...we do better on the relax. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 54 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Can I make a circle around DC/Balt/ up to the Mason-dixon line and assume...not there? Or not anywhere south of there. As of now its an OV/GL/interior NE snow event. Cold comes in behind, which has been the expectation based on the preponderance of guidance. Still a chance the cold comes in sooner with some frozen NW areas, but we know how that usually plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t like it. It’s too much. Even 2016 when it did hit I was worn out from over a week of that shit by the time it got here. This was more fun and less emotionally draining when stuff would pop up 48-72 hours out. I was thinking about that the other day when tracking today's system. Like how I miss the times when we'd wake up to surprise snows, or when something sneaks up on us within a couple of days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hopefully this includes us May be pulling up xmACIS to check what they did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Did anyone notice they added the ICON to pivotal weather? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I was thinking about that the other day when tracking today's system. Like how I miss the times when we'd wake up to surprise snows, or when something sneaks up on us within a couple of days. I feel like Jan. 2022 (or at least the first system that month) was a little like this. Granted, I had just moved here, so maybe I just wasn't paying attention. Either way, it was fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 lol at downplaying Jan 2016. Here are a few of the vehicles in my driveway after that storm. 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: May be pulling up xmACIS to check what they did. January 2014 event- the week before KIAD got 8.5". For those dates, cold with 0.3". January 2011 dates- KIAD 1.2" January 1992 dates-- cold and dry March 9-10, 1960 dates-- 5.8" at DCA (Bigger storm here to open that month) March 11-12, 1960-- cold and dry at DCA December 11-12, 1958-- cold and a Trace at KDCA March 24-25, 1940-- cold and a Trace in DC January 23-24, 1940-- big storm, 9.5" in DC and cold January 29-31, 1936-- Cold and 0.2" in DC December 28-29, 1935-- Cold and 6.3" of snow in that period. So we know it's cold, but it can give us a decent event based on the event. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 37 minutes ago, WVclimo said: lol at downplaying Jan 2016. Here are a few of the vehicles in my driveway after that storm. Here’s one from AA County. Def nothing wrong with that event. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Update on my winter outlook for our subforum. TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15. 3 1 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Nice visual - here comes the cold, the animation loop stops on Tuesday Jan 17 th . Looks 6 to 8 degrees above normal at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Update on my winter outlook for our subforum. TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15. My area is 15 to 30 inches. Hopefully a few moderate events and one MECS gets me to 30 inches. Thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Calm down Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Interstate said: Did anyone notice they added the ICON to pivotal weather? did they improve it? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Update on my winter outlook for our subforum. TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15. I’m holding. Not saying I’m not getting a little nervous. But I have a sneaky suspicion either things line up for a typical Nino run at some point and we hit my forecast or it doesn’t and we don’t get even close. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Happy Hour GFS might be about to toss out a different look for the 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Happy Hour GFS might be about to toss out a different look for the 13th Why u say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Happy Hour GFS might be about to toss out a different look for the 13th 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Why u say that?Because it looked different But didn’t matter really minus some mood flakes. What else is there to do but watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Because it looked different But didn’t matter really minus some mood flakes. What else is there to do but watch Yep. Need that 986 low to move south and turn into 1006. Maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yep. Need that 986 low to move south and turn into 1006. Maybe Doesn’t sound like a big ask when you put it like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Doesn’t sound like a big ask when you put it like that What's 20mb and a few hundred miles among friends??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Doesn’t sound like a big ask when you put it like that DTW will be happy. That’s a deep digger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 31 minutes ago, frd said: Nice visual - here comes the cold, the animation loop stops on Tuesday Jan 17 th . Looks 6 to 8 degrees above normal at that time. Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east? The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves. I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GFS digital love again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east? The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves. I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day. Colder air will move in. As many have stated here, the period of interest is from the 15 th to the 20 th, or possibly to near the 23 rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now