Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,793
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    manaja
    Newest Member
    manaja
    Joined

Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

54 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

 

Can I make a circle around DC/Balt/ up to the Mason-dixon line and assume...not there?

Or not anywhere south of there. As of now its an OV/GL/interior NE snow event. Cold comes in behind, which has been the expectation based on the preponderance of guidance. Still a chance the cold comes in sooner with some frozen NW areas, but we know how that usually plays out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t like it. It’s too much. Even 2016 when it did hit I was  worn out from over a week of that shit by the time it got here. This was more fun and less emotionally draining when stuff would pop up 48-72 hours out. 

I was thinking about that the other day when tracking today's system. Like how I miss the times when we'd wake up to surprise snows, or when something sneaks up on us within a couple of days.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I was thinking about that the other day when tracking today's system. Like how I miss the times when we'd wake up to surprise snows, or when something sneaks up on us within a couple of days.

I feel like Jan. 2022 (or at least the first system that month) was a little like this. Granted, I had just moved here, so maybe I just wasn't paying attention. Either way, it was fun. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

May be pulling up xmACIS to check what they did.

January 2014 event- the week before KIAD got 8.5". For those dates, cold with 0.3".

January 2011 dates- KIAD 1.2"

January 1992 dates-- cold and dry

March 9-10, 1960 dates-- 5.8" at DCA (Bigger storm here to open that month)

March 11-12, 1960-- cold and dry at DCA

December 11-12, 1958-- cold and a Trace at KDCA

March 24-25, 1940-- cold and a Trace in DC

January 23-24, 1940-- big storm, 9.5" in DC and cold

January 29-31, 1936-- Cold and 0.2" in DC

December 28-29, 1935-- Cold and 6.3" of snow in that period.

So we know it's cold, but it can give us a decent event based on the event.

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Update on my winter outlook for our subforum.

TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15.

My area is 15 to 30 inches.  Hopefully a few moderate events and one MECS gets me to 30 inches.  Thanks for the update.     

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Update on my winter outlook for our subforum.

TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15.

 

I’m holding. Not saying I’m not getting a little nervous. But I have a sneaky suspicion either things line up for a typical Nino run at some point and we hit my forecast or it doesn’t and we don’t get even close. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, frd said:

Nice visual - here comes the cold,  the animation loop stops on Tuesday Jan 17 th . Looks 6 to 8 degrees above normal at that time. 

 

 

 

Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east?  The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves.  I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east?  The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves.  I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day.

Colder air will move in. As many have stated here, the period of interest is from the 15 th to the 20 th, or possibly to near the 23 rd.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m holding. Not saying I’m not getting a little nervous. But I have a sneaky suspicion either things line up for a typical Nino run at some point and we hit my forecast or it doesn’t and we don’t get even close. 

i know we keep talking about this but when a model takes snow away from us its all of it. Its never 12-6 or 8-4. its 12-0 8-0....

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Because it looked different emoji6.png

But didn’t matter really minus some mood flakes. What else is there to do but watch

DT says the solution is bullskank and forecasts that it will trend south and east more and more as it gets closer due to models seeing the severe blocking better

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...