Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You just jump from one problem to another don’t you?  The epo ridge did us no good. It’s just been causing an even deeper pna trough. If that’s the case we’re better off with a flatter ridge to get the western trough to broaden and shift east v digging into the SW!  

We don’t need more arctic air. The continent is cooling sufficiently now. I know today is disappointing and it is bothersome we can’t seem to win in marginal non perfect setups but if we had blocking today this could have worked. And the next shot of cold is colder.  We don’t need some arctic wave here. Frankly the colder looks bother me. We rarely get a big snow from that kind of overwhelming cold. 

What we need is to get something to amplify far enough east to cut off the NAO from the WAR with a wave break. That’s the single most important thing to improving our chances of a snowstorm. 

I found there was a net positive 0.31 correlation(/1) between -EPO and snowfall. That factors in colder temperatures and more precipitation. Actually, of the 4 indexes (NAO, AO, PNA, EPO), EPO has the highest net-snowfall correlation for our area. I think what counts in that is a bunch of 4-8" or 6-12" type storms, which we have seen so few of lately. If we are losing a -EPO, and there is still a High pressure over the Aleutians/south of Alaska, I don't like our chances for a snowstorm, despite how negative the NAO is (we talked about this yesterday, huge +SE ridge heights in -NAO's since 18-19, it hasn't been able to suppress the Pacific pattern for whatever reason). I mentioned earlier in this thread a 1std -PNA is overwhelming a 3std -NAO lately, I don't see why that should stop unless El Nino takes over and changes the Pacific pattern completely (which isn't really likely at this range).  Someone mentioned that this is the lowest mid-Winter -NAO since 2010 or 2011.. if true, I have found that it's really hard for us to exit a strong -NAO phase without some kind of snow event. This makes perhaps the 16-17 threat more interesting, although it's not the stronger wave right now on the models. 

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The 13th wasn't supposed to be our storm though. Any wintry precip we get from that I'd call a bonus. I'm more interested in 15-20. 

I'm too burnt out from this weekend's storm to play the rain/snow line game for 7 days...

One thing that sucks about how good the guidance has become is what was once 2-3 days of tracking is now 7-8 days of it.  Yea this shifted away from snow in DC but if you pull back guidance was pretty darn close on the Synoptics from 7-8 days and had the wave identified from 2 weeks. And this is becoming common. Most of our snows lately are on the radar from over a week away now!  Even that fluke anafront snow was on guidance 6 days out!  
 

I don’t like it. It’s too much. Even 2016 when it did hit I was  worn out from over a week of that shit by the time it got here. This was more fun and less emotionally draining when stuff would pop up 48-72 hours out. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I found there was a net positive 0.31 correlation(/1) between -EPO and snowfall. That factors in colder temperatures and more precipitation. Actually, of the 4 indexes (NAO, AO, PNA, EPO), EPO has the highest net-snowfall correlation for our area. I think what counts in that is a bunch of 4-8" or 6-12" type storms, which we have seen so few of lately. If we are losing a -EPO, and there is still a High pressure over the Aleutians/south of Alaska, I don't like our chances for a snowstorm, despite how negative the NAO is (we talked about this yesterday, huge +SE ridge heights in -NAO's since 18-19, it hasn't been able to suppress the Pacific pattern for whatever reason). I mentioned earlier in this thread a 1std -PNA is overwhelming a 3std -NAO lately, I don't see why that should stop unless El Nino takes over and changes the Pacific pattern completely (which isn't really likely at this range).  Someone mentioned that this is the lowest mid-Winter -NAO since 2010 or 2011.. if true, I have found that it's really hard for us to exit a strong -NAO phase without some kind of snow event. This makes perhaps the 16-17 threat more interesting, although it's not the stronger wave right on the models. 

There is a net positive snow correlation to an nao and you’re crapping all over that. Cherry pick much!  
 

But my point was in this specific pattern we’ve been in that epo ridge when it pops has just been causing an even deeper pna trough. Instead of pushing cold east lately the more the ridge pumps in AK the trough just sharpens and digs southwest like it’s allergic to going east. In that reality a epo ridge hurts. 

[CAPE]

EPS for the 13th. Still a clear signal for storm track to our west. WW can show where the snow is.

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I agree. I think next weekend is still a bit of a longshot at this point. Might be a trailing wave possibility a day or so later with colder air in place. Best signal I am seeing on the means right now for a wave tracking underneath with cold entrenched is the 16-17th.

12z EPS hinting at that possibility.

 

[North Balti Zen]

Quote

EPS for the 13th. Still a clear signal for storm track to our west. WW can show where the snow is.

 

Can I make a circle around DC/Balt/ up to the Mason-dixon line and assume...not there?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

EPS for the 13th. Still a clear signal for storm track to our west. WW can show where the snow is.

legit KU pattern develops because of this storm

[psuhoffman]

Just now, CAPE said:

EPS for the 13th. Still a clear signal for storm track to our west. WW can show where the snow is.

I doubt thats the one. I’ll just be happy of it can stay far enough south that I have options to drive to snow with the kids to ski MLK weekend.   If Killington VT can stay snow I’d be thrilled.  That’s where I’m at with that wave. I do like our chances after provided one of these cutters can knock down the war. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But my point was in this specific pattern we’ve been in that epo ridge when it pops has just been causing an even deeper pna trough. Instead of pushing cold east lately the more the ridge pumps in AK the trough just sharpens and digs southwest like it’s allergic to going east. In that reality a epo ridge hurts. 

I think it's because it's extended south to Gulf of Alaska or Aleutian island ridging too. -EPO in January by itself is a highly correlated cold pattern:

https://ibb.co/tc1329x

https://ibb.co/ZHHbxNm

Quote

There is a net positive snow correlation to an nao and you’re crapping all over that. Cherry pick much!  

-NAO's are usually drier. They have a 0.45 correlation to less precip all else neutral, that's why it's special that the models are showing such a juicy storm at the peak of -NAO. Hopefully the Pacific can get worked out, so that we don't waste it. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks like exact same rain snow line lol

Atmospheric memory 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

legit KU pattern develops because of this storm

KU patterns have a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, or the NE N. Pacific (and not '91-20 averages either), stronger. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

48 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So are we back?

With a mf vengeance

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

legit KU pattern develops because of this storm

Probably too soon for a KU. Might be after the 20th when the -NAO relaxes, but still cold in place.

Something like this on the 12z GEFS-

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Probably too soon for a KU. Might be after the 20th when the -NAO relaxes, but still cold in place.

Something like this on the 12z GEFS-

yeah, it’s once the block decays. Arctic airmass in place, decaying WB -NAO, AK ridge, TPV moving towards the 50/50 region, and PNA building. all the pieces are there 

[Eskimo Joe]

I'd rather we have 3 or 4 moderate events than 1 big storm that blows the pattern and melts away in 3 days.

[brooklynwx99]

i will take a HECS over nickels and dimes every day of the week lmao

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i will take a HECS over nickels and dimes every day of the week lmao

right is this even a question?  a couple 2-4" events vs 20-30"?  Seriously?

[Yeoman]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, it’s once the block decays. Arctic airmass in place, decaying WB -NAO, AK ridge, TPV moving towards the 50/50 region, and PNA building. all the pieces are there 

Enjoy it for the next 2 hours

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'd rather we have 3 or 4 moderate events than 1 big storm that blows the pattern and melts away in 3 days.

So let me get this straight...despite alllll the snow drought we've had the past 7-8 years, you're still gonna be picky if we get a big storm? Maaan get outta here with that, lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'd rather we have 3 or 4 moderate events than 1 big storm that blows the pattern and melts away in 3 days.

I'm glad I was in Florida for Jan '16. I was sitting there going muahaha

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

right is this even a question?  a couple 2-4" events vs 20-30"?  Seriously?

You have folks here who were ungrateful for the Jan 2016 blizzard just because it was a one and done winter. I don't get that...but to each their own!

That being said, given how bad things have been, I am growing to appreciate said nickel and dime events when they come (and going forward, in la ninas I think we need to appreciate them more given how bad things can get in a nina). But ask me my preference? BIG DOG...like, that's not even a question!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm glad I was in Florida for Jan '16. I was sitting there going muahaha

You a warmista, Chuck?

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i will take a HECS over nickels and dimes every day of the week lmao

How about both? Probably going to see a light/moderate event (or 2) with modest waves tracking to our south before any KU potential the way the pattern looks to play out. One of these waves could be weak/ suppressed I suppose.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

You a warmista, Chuck?

I love snow, snow on the ground, drifts, wind. 

[anotherman]

I'm glad I was in Florida for Jan '16. I was sitting there going muahaha

Why are you here if you want warmth? Makes no sense.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, CAPE said:

How about both? Probably going to see a light/moderate event (or 2) with modest waves tracking to our south before any KU potential the way the pattern looks to play out. One of these waves could be always weak/ suppressed I suppose.

AND we should have a reload as the Aleutian Low gets going in February 

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So let me get this straight...despite alllll the snow drought we've had the past 7-8 years, you're still gonna be picky if we get a big storm? Maaan get outta here with that, lol

Moderate events to me are 8-12". Anything over a foot is a big storm to me.

[WxUSAF]

Hopefully this includes us 

 

[fujiwara79]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You have folks here who were ungrateful for the Jan 2016 blizzard just because it was a one and done winter. I don't get that...but to each their own!

 

it was a great storm, but that was an awful, under-performing winter.  I was wearing shorts for most of december 2015.  february 2016 was filled with heartbreaking near misses.  that winter should have delivered much more snow than it did.  the snow from the blizzard completely melted in a week and we had bare grass the rest of the winter.

 

contrast that with the winter of 13/14 -- no great storms, but an amazing winter.  the last good winter we had was probably 14/15.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hopefully this includes us 

 

Keep seeing some say the south may see a snow event before we do. And looking at those maps wouldn't that be more suppressive? (For that week, at least) Man if NC gets a snow event before we do...*screams into pillow* Still have snow ptsd from Dec 2018 (though that was a little bad luck, lol)

If it happens it would kinda make sense...as someone posted earlier...we do better on the relax.