Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: heights out west are trending a lot better Look at how we just lost that -EPO. Maybe this is what raindancewx was talking about yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It is odd that the GEFS/GFS though now for the better part of 2-3 days when it shows a raging 4-5 MJO on its plots shows what is probably the most favorable pattern for snow in the MA and up the coastal plain we've had all winter but that may simply be the fact there is typically a lag so 1/17-1/22 might be okay even if the MJO is strongly in 5, but 1/23-1/30 may be where its a raging SER Makes sense that there’d be a lag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Terpeast said: Makes sense that there’d be a lag yes, we lag with the MJO and we'd get a period of warmth, prob the last week of Jan before the Aleutian low develops. all looks on track to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, we lag with the MJO and we'd get a period of warmth, prob the last week of Jan before the Aleutian low develops. all looks on track to me I am sure the GEFS is still too strong on the MJO anyway, just a question of how much but its pretty much been too strong any time its tried to show a strong pulse the last 2 months and the Euro has been too weak, it just is a question whether it verifies closer in amplitude to the Euro or GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 christ 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 christ Mint right? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 hours ago, Heisy said: Btw, 6z eps/control made big steps towards a cmc like solution for the 13th with better confluence and a farther E wave at end of run… I have a feeling 12z runs today might be fun. . We r teetering on an avocado look there. We dont want the entire pattern overwhelmed with a displaced frigid PV. Though the is an upside.....if that happens and we go frigid/dry (like my ex) we have a good shot once the pattern relaxes, so there's that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: heights out west are trending a lot better But that's not a good spot for the mean ridge axis? Unless it rolls East but can we always be relying on rolling things forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: christ That's a better ridge axis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Mint right? Mentos or a tic tac? That's the question. R we going big go home or are we going Itty bitty minty committee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro looks like it trended south as hinted by the 6z ensembles Hensley posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks like it trended south as hinted by the 6z ensembles Hensley posted 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z GEFS- Hints of NS energy associated with the TPV interacting/phasing with a southern stream wave for the 17th. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So close. Takes low under us! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ends up tracking much like todays storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The GFS has a 988 mid west low same time. Interesting for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Nah not playing that game two weeks in a row, lol (Actually I didn't play the game this week either!) Looks like exact same rain snow line lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 WB 12Z EURO next weekend. Day 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: christ Winter Savior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Ji said: So close. Takes low under us! Nah not playing that game two weeks in a row, lol (Actually I didn't play the game this week either!) Now if it's modeled more under us on Wednesday then we can talk! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Looks different from this weekend, with more cold air to work with. But we really need the Tuesday rain storm to clear the field first. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The 13th wasn't supposed to be our storm though. Any wintry precip we get from that I'd call a bonus. I'm more interested in 15-20. I'm too burnt out from this weekend's storm to play the rain/snow line game for 7 days... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 WB 12Z EURO today compared to next Saturday, colder look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So are we back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Buckle up everyone, it's over in about 10 weeks, no time to rest, you can sleep in April and May before the forecasted active hurricane season. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Buckle up everyone, it's over in about 10 weeks, no time to rest, you can sleep in April and May before the forecasted active hurricane season.April is the new December. No rest til May 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Don’t remember which phase it was, but we did get an area wide 0.5-3” here back in Dec. maybe it had nothin to do with the mjo, which I’m no expert on 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: It is odd that the GEFS/GFS though now for the better part of 2-3 days when it shows a raging 4-5 MJO on its plots shows what is probably the most favorable pattern for snow in the MA and up the coastal plain we've had all winter but that may simply be the fact there is typically a lag so 1/17-1/22 might be okay even if the MJO is strongly in 5, but 1/23-1/30 may be where its a raging SER I have a theory about the mjo. I think its relationship to the larger pattern is symbiotic. Yes the mjo forcing affects the long wave pattern. But one reason for those correlations is imo when the mjo is in synch with the larger pacific base state (example MC forcing in a Nina) it will both spend more time in the warm phases and have the canonical warm phase look because the larger pattern supports it. But fast waves through phases contradictory to the larger pattern don’t have as much impact. It’s why the 8/1 passes haven’t done us much good the last 7 years. On the flip side there are examples of warm phases during cold periods that didn’t cause as much of a SER either. So on the one hand I’d say history suggests a brief 4/5 pass won’t hurt us too much during a Nino. But with things leaning warm lately is that still true? Is anything even slightly hitting the warm button too much now? Dunno. This year is a great test case in many ways imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Don’t remember which phase it was, but we did get an area wide 0.5-3” here back in Dec. maybe it had nothin to do with the mjo, which I’m no expert on I’m pretty sure the mjo was in the null phase then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks like exact same rain snow line lol Yep...that would be an absolute troll job! But it is 7 days away...if it looks like this now only way it can look worse is all rain! Maybe it gets better who knows, lol But the period I'm more interested in is after that as our historically prime climo window opens...no matter what, that window (mid Jan-President's day) will be put up or shut up time, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Well I’m in 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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