Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 End of the 6z GFS run That's the Jan 2016 reduxSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Ji said: That's the Jan 2016 redux Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk As long as its 50 miles further east so I don't get dry slotted. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6z GEFS for the 16-17th potential. This is a pretty strong signal for a significant shortwave and developing surface low at this range. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS for the 16-17th potential. This is a pretty strong signal for a significant shortwave and developing surface low at this range. Well I'm in Wisconsin then so book it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Btw, 6z eps/control made big steps towards a cmc like solution for the 13th with better confluence and a farther E wave at end of run… I have a feeling 12z runs today might be fun. . 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z GFS took a step closer for the 13th. Now that’s a storm I’d chase to Ohio verbatim if I didn’t have other plans. What a mauling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z GFS took a step closer for the 13th. Now that’s a storm I’d chase to Ohio verbatim if I didn’t have other plans. What a mauling Billions of isobars. Like a dark hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, frd said: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not sure what he is trying to say…? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I read Judah's post and was like what ?? Most reliable professional mets are calling for a weak PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not sure what he is trying to say…? 2 minutes ago, frd said: I read Judah's post and was like what ?? Most reliable professional mets are calling for a weak PV. Who knows. He is a one trick pony and a snake oil salesman. To him everything that happens at 500 mb and below in winter hinges on the state of the SPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z gfs won’t bring the cold air in 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GFS is close to a little overrun event for the 16th/17th. Pretty simple setup for us to score some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Definitely a good bit SE for the 13th event. I'd consider heading to Cleveland for that one if it really went down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The good news in the LR is that the MJO (at least in GEFS) races through phases 4-5 within a few days to a week or so, then we should see it get back into P7 by late Jan. So maybe we get a window of opportunity between Jan 15-20, and again towards the end of the month into early feb. Plus the SSWE is actually in progress, so increased blocking throughout late Jan - Most of Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 wishcasting this trend to continue 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS is close to a little overrun event for the 16th/17th. Pretty simple setup for us to score some snow. The ensembles have been on that window, as well as the GFS op the last 3 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: wishcasting this trend to continue This is my ignorance and weenieism talking, but is there genuine reason to believe it could continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Models lost the -EPO-ridging for Jan 13th storm.. neutral heights now over Alaska, and they retrograde the -PNA ridge to -WPO only when we start losing the -NAO. That's what I thought yesterday, they sometimes hold onto a strong storm track, and adjust the upper latitude heights, if the total situation before is more unlikely. We needed that EPO-block from the last few 12z Euro runs. It's all but gone on 06z GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The good news in the LR is that the MJO (at least in GEFS) races through phases 4-5 within a few days to a week or so, then we should see it get back into P7 by late Jan. So maybe we get a window of opportunity between Jan 15-20, and again towards the end of the month into early feb. Plus the SSWE is actually in progress, so increased blocking throughout late Jan - Most of Feb Phase 1 and 2 didn’t do anything for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Phase 1 and 2 didn’t do anything for us Point taken. So maybe we don’t torch during 4 and 5 this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 29 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not sure what he is trying to say…? I don’t know about the SPV but from experience we don’t really want that epo ridge migrating to Siberia. That usually isn’t good in the immediate aftermath. But I have no idea about his winger cancel nonsense nor are we sure that’s right or not just temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: This is my ignorance and weenieism talking, but is there genuine reason to believe it could continue? That storm is going to track along the thermal boundary, which has looked like it would be to our west for this period. There is a bit of a 'trend' to move it eastward a bit a faster. This can be seen looking at the individual members- a quick look at the 12z GEFS reveals that there are about 8 that have the boundary closer(or even south) and get frozen into our area. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 19 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: This is my ignorance and weenieism talking, but is there genuine reason to believe it could continue? I'm personally starting to let that threat go. The window where it looked like we were moving towards a workable solution included the TPV hanging back longer in the Pac NW while a weaker lobe popped out and went on its own, plus there was a wave sliding off the coast as the storm approached to fist fight the ridging ahead of the event. None of the models show that now (edit: Operational models, that look is not entirely gone from ensembles), either bringing back strong ridging in front of the event or making the TPV come forward and phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Phase 1 and 2 didn’t do anything for us 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Point taken. So maybe we don’t torch during 4 and 5 this time Or did they? We went from way too warm to just a little too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 heights out west are trending a lot better 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Or did they? We went from way too warm to just a little too warm. Don’t remember which phase it was, but we did get an area wide 0.5-3” here back in Dec. maybe it had nothin to do with the mjo, which I’m no expert on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Or did they? We went from way too warm to just a little too warm. It is odd that the GEFS/GFS though now for the better part of 2-3 days when it shows a raging 4-5 MJO on its plots shows what is probably the most favorable pattern for snow in the MA and up the coastal plain we've had all winter but that may simply be the fact there is typically a lag so 1/17-1/22 might be okay even if the MJO is strongly in 5, but 1/23-1/30 may be where its a raging SER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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