Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Ji]

christ

 

Mint right?

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

Btw, 6z eps/control made big steps towards a cmc like solution for the 13th with better confluence and a farther E wave at end of run… I have a feeling 12z runs today might be fun.



.

We r teetering on an avocado look there. We dont want the entire pattern overwhelmed with a displaced frigid PV. Though the is an upside.....if that happens and we go frigid/dry (like my ex) we have a good shot once the pattern relaxes, so there's that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

heights out west are trending a lot better

But that's not a good spot for the mean ridge axis? Unless it rolls East but can we always be relying on rolling things forward?

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

christ

 

That's a better ridge axis!

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Mint right?

Mentos or a tic tac? That's the question. R we going big go home or are we going Itty bitty minty committee?

[Ji]

Euro looks like it trended south as hinted by the 6z ensembles Hensley posted

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro looks like it trended south as hinted by the 6z ensembles Hensley posted

 

[CAPE]

12z GEFS- Hints of NS energy associated with the TPV interacting/phasing with a southern stream wave for the 17th.

[Ji]

So close. Takes low under us!

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Ends up tracking much like todays storm 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

The GFS has a 988 mid west low same time.  Interesting for sure 

[Ji]

Nah not playing that game two weeks in a row, lol (Actually I didn't play the game this week either!) 

Looks like exact same rain snow line lol

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO next weekend.  Day 7

[cbmclean]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

christ

 

Winter Savior?

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

So close. Takes low under us!

Nah not playing that game two weeks in a row, lol (Actually I didn't play the game this week either!) Now if it's modeled more under us on Wednesday then we can talk!

[Weather Will]

Looks different from this weekend, with more cold air to work with.  But we really need the Tuesday rain storm to clear the field first.

[Terpeast]

The 13th wasn't supposed to be our storm though. Any wintry precip we get from that I'd call a bonus. I'm more interested in 15-20. 

I'm too burnt out from this weekend's storm to play the rain/snow line game for 7 days...

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO today compared to next Saturday, colder look.

[LeesburgWx]

So are we back?

[Weather Will]

Buckle up everyone, it's over in about 10 weeks, no time to rest, you can sleep in April and May before the forecasted active hurricane season.

[NorthArlington101]

Buckle up everyone, it's over in about 10 weeks, no time to rest, you can sleep in April and May before the forecasted active hurricane season.

April is the new December. No rest til May

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Don’t remember which phase it was, but we did get an area wide 0.5-3” here back in Dec. maybe it had nothin to do with the mjo, which I’m no expert on

 

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It is odd that the GEFS/GFS though now for the better part of 2-3 days when it shows a raging 4-5 MJO on its plots shows what is probably the most favorable pattern for snow in the MA and up the coastal plain we've had all winter but that may simply be the fact there is typically a lag so 1/17-1/22 might be okay even if the MJO is strongly in 5, but 1/23-1/30 may be where its a raging SER

I have a theory about the mjo. I think its relationship to the larger pattern is symbiotic.  Yes the mjo forcing affects the long wave pattern. But one reason for those correlations is imo when the mjo is in synch with the larger pacific base state (example MC forcing in a Nina) it will both spend more time in the warm phases and have the canonical warm phase look because the larger pattern supports it. 
 

But fast waves through phases contradictory to the larger pattern don’t have as much impact. It’s why the 8/1 passes haven’t done us much good the last 7 years. On the flip side there are examples of warm phases during cold periods that didn’t cause as much of a SER either. 
 

So on the one hand I’d say history suggests a brief 4/5 pass won’t hurt us too much during a Nino. But with things leaning warm lately is that still true?  Is anything even slightly hitting the warm button too much now?  Dunno. This year is a great test case in many ways imo. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Don’t remember which phase it was, but we did get an area wide 0.5-3” here back in Dec. maybe it had nothin to do with the mjo, which I’m no expert on

I’m pretty sure the mjo was in the null phase then 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks like exact same rain snow line lol

Yep...that would be an absolute troll job! But it is 7 days away...if it looks like this now only way it can look worse is all rain! Maybe it gets better who knows, lol But the period I'm more interested in is after that as our historically prime climo window opens...no matter what, that window (mid Jan-President's day) will be put up or shut up time, lol

[Solution Man]

Well I’m in

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The 13th wasn't supposed to be our storm though. Any wintry precip we get from that I'd call a bonus. I'm more interested in 15-20. 

I'm too burnt out from this weekend's storm to play the rain/snow line game for 7 days...

I agree. I think next weekend is still a bit of a longshot at this point. Might be a trailing wave possibility a day or so later with colder air in place. Best signal I am seeing on the means right now for a wave tracking underneath with cold entrenched is the 16-17th.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look at how we just lost that -EPO. Maybe this is what raindancewx was talking about yesterday. 

You just jump from one problem to another don’t you?  The epo ridge did us no good. It’s just been causing an even deeper pna trough. If that’s the case we’re better off with a flatter ridge to get the western trough to broaden and shift east v digging into the SW!  
 

We don’t need more arctic air. The continent is cooling sufficiently now. I know today is disappointing and it is bothersome we can’t seem to win in marginal non perfect setups but if we had blocking today this could have worked. And the next shot of cold is colder.  We don’t need some arctic wave here. Frankly the colder looks bother me. We rarely get a big snow from that kind of overwhelming cold. 
 

What we need is to get something to amplify far enough east to cut off the NAO from the WAR with a wave break. That’s the single most important thing to improving our chances of a snowstorm. 

[Weather Will]

As you get older, more than half the fun is the tracking, last year was horribly boring.  At least this year beats last year in the number of storms and we are putting a significant dent in our drought.

[WxUSAF]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO next weekend.  Day 7

That’s triggering after this week

[psuhoffman]

Just a reminder when I looked at every 5”+ snowfall at BWI by far the single most important factor was lower heigjts in the 50/50 region. There were very few snows without that!  Most of our examples of a snowstorm in an otherwise crap pattern are due to luck with a system tracking through that area at just the right time to overcome other pattern flaws.  But you don’t see many “otherwise good pattern” snows with a ridge in the 50/50 space.  A ridge there is an absolute killer to our chances to have confluence and hold cold as a wave approaches. We would have to get increasingly lucky with well timed perfect track boundary wave basically.  Not impossible. But if we want the odds of snow to go up dramatically we need to knock down the war nao link.