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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS made another tick towards the EPS and GEPS, not hanging as much of the trough back 

Looks like more of a -PNA building (trough digging into the SW), and 12z GEFS already had strong -PNA. 

-PNA's have completely overwhelmed -NAO's lately, that's the cycle we're in. I wouldn't be surprised if future runs trended less -NAO. 

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2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Let's hope it doesn't do the same thing as mid-March 2023  https://ibb.co/SRLw91H   https://ibb.co/QX0zz36  -PNA region has been overwhelming of late

Enough pointing out the -pna. We’re in a -pdo cycle. The pna is going to be the dominant base state so long as we’re in this pacific cycle and that could last a long time.  The PDO runs in both short and longer cycles. We were in a -pdo predominant from the 50s through the 70s. 80s-2016 it was predominantly positive. We’ve clearly flipped negative. And might be in that the rest of our lives do stop pointing out the obvious when the pna is going to be negative almost all the time!  
 

instead what do we need to snow in a -pna?????…We snowed plenty during previous -pdo cycles during a -pna. The typical way was with a -nao forcing the western trough to broaden and energy to cut under the block into the southeast. In past -pdo cycles +AO/Nao periods were god awful but -AO/NAOs were snowy. 1958, 1060, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1979 all were extremely snowy with a predominantly-pna!  In all those years the nao is why. 


The composite of our snowiest  winters during the last 30 year -pdo cycle. 
IMG_0800.png.665a3a5ea45b23f75c317a5a742bfbe9.png
but focus just on the pac 

IMG_0800.jpeg.e3787ad3e31f5aae97d380ef78a6c520.jpeg
it’s its same exact pac pattern you keep saying is why we won’t snow. But we got dumped with snow in all those years!  
 

So why isn’t the nao working anymore?  And if it isn’t since we’re going to have a -pna just about all the time what do we need to snow in a -pna? 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Enough pointing out the -pna. We’re in a -pdo cycle. \ 

It's actually a La Nina cycle

https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn

SSTs warm/cool after the fact. 

Your composite shows barely positive anomalies in the Pacific. We are rocking a pretty good high pressure for the next 2 weeks. I think it should change after the 20th, because that's the ENSO state but we'll see. My roll forward composite (Jan 5-13 N. Pacific ridge) is nailing it right now so is the Dec +EPO roll forward.

-PNA's are hooking up with SE ridge more than normal right now (relative conditions like -NAO are not stopping it). My only explanation is that in the mature/later part of a cycle it has stronger downstream effects. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Enough pointing out the -pna. We’re in a -pdo cycle. The pna is going to be the dominant base state so long as we’re in this pacific cycle and that could last a long time.  The PDO runs in both short and longer cycles. We were in a -pdo predominant from the 50s through the 70s. 80s-2016 it was predominantly positive. We’ve clearly flipped negative. And might be in that the rest of our lives do stop pointing out the obvious when the pna is going to be negative almost all the time!  
 

instead what do we need to snow in a -pna?????…We snowed plenty during previous -pdo cycles during a -pna. The typical way was with a -nao forcing the western trough to broaden and energy to cut under the block into the southeast. In past -pdo cycles +AO/Nao periods were god awful but -AO/NAOs were snowy. 1958, 1060, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1979 all were extremely snowy with a predominantly-pna!  In all those years the nao is why. 


The composite of our snowiest  winters during the last 30 year -pdo cycle. 
IMG_0800.png.665a3a5ea45b23f75c317a5a742bfbe9.png
but focus just on the pac 

IMG_0800.jpeg.e3787ad3e31f5aae97d380ef78a6c520.jpeg
it’s its same exact pac pattern you keep saying is why we won’t snow. But we got dumped with snow in all those years!  
 

So why isn’t the nao working anymore?  And if it isn’t since we’re going to have a -pna just about all the time what do we need to snow in a -pna? 

Honest question for you sir: is the question above rhetorical?

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10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's actually a La Nina cycle

https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn

SSTs warm/cool after the fact. 

Your composite shows barely positive anomalies in the Pacific. We are rocking a pretty good high pressure for the next 2 weeks. I think it should change after the 20th, because that's the ENSO state but we'll see. My roll forward composite (Jan 5-13 N. Pacific ridge) is nailing it right now so is the Dec +EPO roll forward.

You have to normalize for today’s heights. It’s where the troughs and ridges are that determines the long wave pattern. What was barely a positive then is a bright red torch ridge now simply because of the much warmer background state. 
example look at 1950-1957. 
IMG_0806.png.a274b461fd39be4101acaadb2d796b32.png

look at the heights now. 

IMG_0808.png.6d2fc2f16b8a5b1d1d5934f51f38e001.png

same long wave pattern just the heights are higher EVERYWHERE 
 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You have to normalize for today’s heights. It’s where the troughs and ridges are that determines the long wave pattern. What was barely a positive then is a bright red torch ridge now simply because of the much warmer background state. 
example look at 1950-1957. 

look at the heights now. 

same long wave pattern just the heights are higher EVERYWHERE 

Right.. you would think that the snowy '60s -PNA composite would work now, but we are pumping a much greater relative SE ridge for whatever reason. I don't think it's necessarily global warming, because they first theorized that +PDO would be impacted, and every part of N. America would be effected except the SE, US. The mid-latitude cell and the Hadley cell meeting is a weather phenomenon, not some broadbased warming. South wind is making it up into NYC more frequently, I think we need a N. Pacific trough (especially in January) to cool it down. It might just be that the historical composites are not taking fully into the effect the power of a PNA pattern (more effected waves downstream than what they show). It also hit me that a lot of the 1700s/1800s climate records are pretty close to now, honestly, you would think they wouldn't have had snowless Winters for 5 straight years in the 1800s and some record highs still standing. 

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1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Right.. you would think that the snowy '60s -PNA composite would work now, but we are pumping a much greater relative SE ridge for whatever reason. I don't think it's necessarily global warming, because they first theorized that +PDO would be impacted, and every part of N. America would be effected except the SE, US. The mid-latitude cell and the Hadley cell meeting is a weather phenomenon, not some basic overall warming. South wind is making it up into NYC more frequently, I think we need a N. Pacific trough (especially in January) to cool it down. 

Except that’s not an option 

I agree there is more going on here. The TNH pattern has been persistent even during blocking which used to be rare.  I think the AMO isn’t helping either. Along with warmer gulf and Atlantic it’s pumping the SER more than the last -pdo period. 

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Actually think for you guys the main issue is the West Pacific. Those +WPO  setups (Kamchatka lows north of subtropics highs by the date line) at high amplitude completely nullify the -NAO/-AO periods in a lot of years. It's not like we've had only +NAO periods in the Jan 15-Apr 15 period when the NAO is strongest as a signal in recent years. The SE tends to warm up when the WPO goes positive. It's part of why you get what Chuck talks about, the -PNA with -NAO thing. WPO goes negative way less than it used to, and does seem tied to the warming by Indonesia and the Indian Ocean.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Sadly I have none to offer, and I haven't heard anyone else offer a convincing one.

It depends. So you can drill down on a specific factor. The expanded pac Hadley cell. The IO and Western Pac warm pool. The warmer Gulf and Atlantic contribution to TNH.  The MC forcing issue. 
 

But if you pull back they all have a common thread!  

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+AMO does appear to have a correlation to SE ridge, and -AMO SE trough

Decadal AMO https://ibb.co/QJbBxt8

1st +AMO (1926 to 1965) https://ibb.co/HPj0Hqq

2nd +AMO (1996 to 2023) https://ibb.co/xsgJp81

1st -AMO (1900 to 1925) https://ibb.co/4dNrvht

2nd -AMO (1966 to 1995) https://ibb.co/PGbGTBx

Again, since the AMO went + in 1995, we have had 15 La Nina's and 9 El Nino's

https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except that’s not an option 

I agree there is more going on here. The TNH pattern has been persistent even during blocking which used to be rare.  I think the AMO isn’t helping either. Along with warmer gulf and Atlantic it’s pumping the SER more than the last -pdo period. 

 

I assumed 4-6 years ago we'd be going back to a -AMO soon but its been delayed to say the least

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

What happened in the MA in 1987?

Jan 22 we got shellacked by 14 inches of snow. I remember because I was just starting on a construction job that day, no one showed up then I ended up jebwalking for hours. The forecast was for 3-5 inches of snow, we had 5 inches by 9am then I knew we were gonna get truly shellacked! The sky turned dark and snow simply POURED down! By late afternoon we had 14 inches of fresh pow in Dale City and I was beside myself with pure JOY! I was jebwalking, digging massive amounts of the snow and totally out of control.

Jan 26 we got ten more inches of snow piled on like the 2022-23 season at Palisades! I was digging snow everywhere; piling it up, running around and sliding on ice while yelling WOOOOO-HOOOOOO at the top of my lungs! I had serious mega piles of the snow everywhere! I was making money hand over fist digging massive amounts of snow all over the Dale City/Woodbridge Region! I was in total snow Heaven at the time and 23 years young! I was digging and digging and digging and digging so much snow! And taking in long jebwalks and sneaking out at 3am and walking in and wallowing in other people's snowdrifts! It is so much fun and such a THRILL! rolling around in stolen snowdrifts in the middle of the night!

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