dallen7908 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro almost pulled it off Yes, that storm track and area covered would be a dream come true for New England. It's been a brutal winter for the nordic resorts. Many of which have been closed since just before XMAS. Some never opened. Bretton Woods hasn't opened yet. Bolton Valley had early storms but never got around to laying down tracks and then ... Jackson, Mt. Van Hoevenberg, and Craftsbury have a few kms open - all man-made snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the -NAO does not correlate to a SE ridge overall. the months with the strongest -NAOs often have a SE trough Lately, in the mature part of a -PNA cycle, the correlation has been there. Not overall though yeah. It should be noted that the -PNA cycle began when the AMO went +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Yes, that storm track and area covered would be a dream come true for New England. It's been a brutal winter for the nordic resorts. Many of which have been closed since just before XMAS. Some never opened. Bretton Woods hasn't opened yet. Bolton Valley had early storms but never got around to laying down tracks and then ... Jackson, Mt. Van Hoevenberg, and Craftsbury have a few kms open - all man-made snow. Congrats, New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this will work. HL blocking is insane we need the NAO to be more west based 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this will work. HL blocking is insane For illustrative purposes only, but that insane HL blocking regime going across Northern Canada would most likely result ( if correctly modeled) a snow pattern that would run West to East at a fairly lower lattitude. Something like this possibly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 EPS is definitely pushing that lobe under the block more. considerable change from last run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is definitely pushing that lobe under the block more. considerable change from last run Good, now let’s see the GEFS do the same 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Look at the surface temp trend next Sat, 12z. On EPS. The Friday/Saturday storm is bringing in the chill behind it… just needs to reach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Terpeast said: Good, now let’s see the GEFS do the same it moved that way too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dream scenario: lobe continues to trend SW, slips under a growing block, gives us a taste of flakes/appetizer before we set up under the big chill behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 this is awesome. can even see some ridging trying to form on the WC despite BN heights. active polar jet, very cold, -NAO decaying in a perfect spot 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 When the -NAO is lifting up that is our storm chance. The -PNA, if that is the pattern, has a high precip correlation, 0.55 in January https://ibb.co/191HM4P Problem is -PNA's lately have brought south wind all the way to NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is definitely pushing that lobe under the block more. considerable change from last run Colder air comes in sooner next weekend. Pretty cold for MLK day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Colder air comes in sooner next weekend. Pretty cold for MLK day. those kinds of -PNA/-EPO/-NAO patterns can deliver good overrunning while the block is in place and the TPV is close. likely have Arctic air over the top 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: those kinds of -PNA/-EPO/-NAO patterns can deliver good overrunning while the block is in place and the TPV is close. likely have Arctic air over the top Indications of shortwaves in the flow with colder air in place. Hint of some precip late on the 15th and on the 17th. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Indications of shortwaves in the flow with colder air in place. Hint of some precip late on the 15th and on the 17th. look at this. block decays and sits over the Davis Strait, low heights out west retrograde, heights over the Rockies rise, and the low heights from the TPV move into the 50/50 region. you thinking what I'm thinking? lmao 7 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hard pressed to even nitpick that… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS and Euro both have something for the 13th. Active STJ https://ibb.co/P63BHFy https://ibb.co/nL6WRnG 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it moved that way too It's getting closer. EC looks mint. Before I was watching the 15-20 period, but if that FROPA on the 13th becomes something different in a better way, that window becomes a little larger. 13-20. And the 13th is only 8 days away 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It's getting closer. EC looks mint. Before I was watching the 15-20 period, but if that FROPA on the 13th becomes something different in a better way, that window becomes a little larger. 13-20. And the 13th is only 8 days away Once the tpv gets to about 95-90* we have a shot. West of there and I find it hard to believe a wave doesn’t cut. Question is when does it get there and how suppressive is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: this will work. HL blocking is insane The doctor is in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is definitely pushing that lobe under the block more. considerable change from last run Lucy, I mean the Euro, is headed the right direction folks! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It’s only the ICON, but it trended towards popping out a vort into the plains ahead of the energy for the 13th. Looks very similar to the GFS progression, less heights immediately in front of the big western blob of energy. Can’t say it is in the transfer camp until the longer 00z run verifies but that leaves only the UKMET being stingy with that vort, keeping it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS made good changes towards the ECMWF/CMC this run 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Let's hope it doesn't do the same thing as mid-March 2023 https://ibb.co/SRLw91H https://ibb.co/QX0zz36 -PNA region has been overwhelming of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS made good changes towards the ECMWF/CMC this run A good step 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS made good changes towards the ECMWF/CMC this run I love your optimism 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18z gfs has some 1987ish shit happening post 324 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z gfs has some 1987ish shit happening post 324 hrs. Ralph…you seem wise…what are we tracking in the LR? I saw red tagger said GFS made good changes. It was the op run. I see 3 cutters and a dry cold after. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Ralph…you seem wise…what are we tracking in the LR? I saw red tagger said GFS made good changes. It was the op run. I see 3 cutters and a dry cold after. ignore it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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