JenkinsJinkies Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @Heisy gets his storm to track on the 12z gfs for the 20th You know the last time we got big snow was around the January 20th timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 What would it take to bring this south and maybe turn it into a Miller B transfer in a favorable spot for the MA for next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 That ridge position into NW Canada with a TPV lobe in Quebec SHOULD mean that energy out west cuts under and slides east...but that has not been happening recently. We've seen this play out a lot lately. Everyone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific. But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part? Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east? Yea I bet it Canadian played out it still wouldn’t result . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yup, the GFS evolution is just delayed, not denied. you still get legit Arctic air into the pattern, it’s gotta go somewhere And ofc the 12z GEFS doesn't resemble the op run for the same period where it tried to bury a deep trough into the SW. HL ridge bridge too. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Alfoman said: What would it take to bring this south and maybe turn it into a Miller B transfer in a favorable spot for the MA for next weekend? Miller B's don't deliver for us on the other side of the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, CAPE said: And ofc the 12z GEFS doesn't resemble the op run for the same period where it tried to bury a deep trough into the SW. HL ridge bridge too. GEPS remains mint too 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEPS remains mint too at some point the mint on the map has to end up as white on the grass 2 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, CAPE said: And ofc the 12z GEFS doesn't resemble the op run for the same period where it tried to bury a deep trough into the SW. HL ridge bridge too. I think Ralph might object to the WAR. Seriously though, is there a reason that WAR wouldn't be a problem? The -NAO isn't really a block there, just a Greenland heat dome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ji said: at some point the mint on the map has to end up as white on the grass you need to start here first. you know this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 719 Is that an angel number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is that an angel number? this is snowfall forecast by month starting in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 19 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I think Ralph might object to the WAR. Seriously though, is there a reason that WAR wouldn't be a problem? The -NAO isn't really a block there, just a Greenland heat dome. The WAR was there from when the trough was initially positioned out west. Those +heights were absorbed into the NAO ridge as the trough shifted east, and Ralph's phobia is dissipating, so not a problem. Not technically a block at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 21 minutes ago, Alfoman said: What would it take to bring this south and maybe turn it into a Miller B transfer in a favorable spot for the MA for next weekend? The term Miller B is banned here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: The term Miller B is banned here. I prefer Miller Lite 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 29 minutes ago, Alfoman said: What would it take to bring this south and maybe turn it into a Miller B transfer in a favorable spot for the MA for next weekend? M Move the trough east by about 400-500 miles haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Move the trough east by about 400-500 miles haha! Very possible at D7-8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 19 minutes ago, nj2va said: The term Miller B is banned here. Still new to what's favorable for the MA region but should have known better than the B-word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS shows a parade of storms - Drought may be over. Storm 1: Sat-Sun Storm 2: Tues-Wed Storm 3: Sat Storm 4 Tue Storm 5 Sat - that's the one currently "forecast" to give us low-landers snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro trended south for next weekend as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro almost pulled it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro almost pulled it off We're about 2 days away from being teased for 2 days before it slips away and gives Winchester 2" of snow and Boston 2' of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Is that an angel number? Days since DC has an inch of snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Even though models pinch the Pacific ridge into -EPO/-WPO, it's still a -PNA pattern, and a strong one at that. You guys should really run the composites for -NAO's lately and the -PNA patterns that have happened at the same time. I think +NAO/+PNA is correlating too. GEFS by day 15-16 is really starting to warm things up here, with the NW trough trying to retrograde into +EPO, which happens sometimes after big blocking episodes. +300dm Aleutian island ridge on the mean. -PNA pattern https://ibb.co/fHQdLDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Days since DC has an inch of snow. we'd have to end the season without 1" to break the record (set only 10 yrs ago) - but everyone else has blown the doors off their records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: You know the last time we got big snow was around the January 20th timeframe. Yep, and the antecedent airmass was exactly what PSU described using the fantasy range of the 12z gfs. I remember it being sufficientlyrics cold that week, barely making it out of the mid 30s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 this will work. HL blocking is insane 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 that's in the far medium range, too. far from fantasy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Since its been so long...just for reference... This is what we want the antecedent airmass to look like as a wave comes at us NOT THIS It was closer to an even bigger event if the NS would have phased in. But the setup was nice...way too far out to know if the GFS is even close. I would like to see the ensembles start to show this discreet wave with a bit more clarity over the next couple days. They picked up on this current wave from like day 15 which was amazing. I don't expect that...but we want to see some hints at this on the ensembles soon. This look fits the airmass prior to our last blizzard almost exactly. I remember that whole week it was quite cold barely making it out of the mid 30s. That's closer to "the look", no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this will work. HL blocking is insane A lot of snow for all the insane HL blocking the last 2 Winter's. That N. Pacific -PNA region is really a dominant pattern at this point in time. And the -NAO has a SE ridge correlation since 18-19, and really going back to 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A lot of snow for all the insane HL blocking the last 2 Winter's. That N. Pacific -PNA region is really a dominant pattern at this point in time. And the -NAO has a SE ridge correlation since 18-19, and really going back to 2013. the -NAO does not correlate to a SE ridge overall. the months with the strongest -NAOs often have a SE trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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